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re: Hurricane/T.S Season -ISSAC On "Destructive Crawl" in US
http://i.imgur.com/PHMf3.png
Tropical Storm Isaac is now solidly in the Gulf of Mexico this morning, and the center has relocated closer to the central dense overcast., but the center still remains south of most of the weather. So strengthening for the next 12 hours or so would be slow, but there are signs that an actual eye (possibly tilted) is trying form, and Isaac's in the best position it's been since formation to strengthen this afternoon and evening. http://i.imgur.com/zrxwj.png The NOAA aircraft twitter states "Radar suggests an eye is forming in #Isaac.It is elliptical with major axis WNW-ESE and diameter 30 nm. In major bands to west." But there are factors that will keep it from strengthening too quickly, such as the dry air and upper level low to the south of it, and the inability to keep the mid and low level centers aligned.. The eastern part of the storm is still moving through the Florida peninsula but should be out by the end of the day, this morning the heaviest bands are moving through central Florida, the bands train for a very long distance, so certain parts of Florida will likely see extended periods of rain, some of which could be rough or spawn tornadoes. Those in the northern Gulf coast warning area should take preparations today. The storm moved more north than forecast last night (because of re-locations) and the forecast track briefly moved a bit east. Still because of center relocation, the exact track is in question. New Tropical storm warnings are now up form Intracoastal City, AL to Morgan City, LA and new hurricane watches are up as well for the same area. the hurricane warning remains up east of there to Destin, FL. Joyce http://i.imgur.com/JIi2Y.png |
re: Hurricane Season- Hurricane Amanda-Strongest on Record>So Far
http://www.foopics.com/showfull/e1bd...0d572496ca0cae
Isaac made a second technical landfall early this morning, but on the whole is hardly moving. Pressure is remarkably low for a Category 1, at 969mb, and maximum sustained winds are holding at 80 MPH. Lots of wind with Isaac. Inland storm reports so far include numerous downed trees, severe roof damage, etc., but focus really turns to the potential for substantial flooding. Louisiana Homeland Security has confirmed that a levee in Plaquemines Parish has overtopped. While overtopping is not the same as a breach, significant, deep flooding in that area is possible, and emergency evacuations are underway in its immediate vicinity despite very rough weather. Sometimes an overtopping results in a complete breach. The overtopping is occurring from the St. Bernard line all the way to White Ditch, about an 18 mile stretch, according to initial reports. Many more hours of wind, rain and surge to go. Southeast Louisiana may not yet be even half way through. Joyce http://www.foopics.com/showfull/fb00...8f785a9ea2c07b Kirk http://www.foopics.com/showfull/4f50...f0a79065ade57c |
re: Hurricane Season- Hurricane Amanda-Strongest on Record>So Far
http://www.foopics.com/showfull/7093...390b51633bb819
Isaac has left flooding behind it as it moves northward. It's pretty much over with. |
re: Hurricane Season- Hurricane Amanda-Strongest on Record>So Far
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re: Hurricane Season- Hurricane Amanda-Strongest on Record>So Far
Five Day Forecast Map
http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/dat...01212_5day.gif Statement as of 2:00 PM AST on September 09, 2012 Tropical-storm-force winds continue at Bermuda as the center begins to edge away from the island... summary of 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...information ---------------------------------------------- location...32.6n 62.4w about 140 mi...230 km E of Bermuda maximum sustained winds...60 mph...95 km/h present movement...N or 10 degrees at 10 mph...17 km/h minimum central pressure...988 mb...29.18 inches watches and warnings -------------------- changes with this advisory... none. Summary of watches and warnings in effect... a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda for storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your National meteorological service. Discussion and 48-hour outlook ------------------------------ at 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 32.6 north...longitude 62.4 west. Leslie is moving toward the north near 10 mph...17 km/h. A northward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected today...followed by a gradual turn toward the north-northeast with continued accerleration tonight and Monday. Leslie has already made its closest approach to Bermuda...and will slowly begin to move away from the island today. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph...95 km/h...with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours... and Leslie could regain hurricane strength in the next day or so. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 195 miles...315 km from the center. A wind gust to 54 mph...87 km/h...was recently reported at Bermuda international Airport. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb...29.18 inches. Hazards affecting land ---------------------- wind...tropical storm conditions will continue on Bermuda today...but these should diminish by tonight. Surf...swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect Bermuda... the U.S. East Coast from central Florida northward...the Canadian Maritimes...the northern Leeward Islands...Puerto Rico...and the Virgin Islands for the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more information. Rainfall...Leslie is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches on Bermuda. END Thanks to Forecaster Franklin for this |
re: Hurricane Season- Hurricane Amanda-Strongest on Record>So Far
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re: Hurricane Season- Hurricane Amanda-Strongest on Record>So Far
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re: Hurricane Season- Hurricane Amanda-Strongest on Record>So Far
Hurricane Nadine
http://i.imgur.com/OjzVu.png Out to sea. Some few small islands threatened but other than that, just sea lanes to worry about it. |
re: Hurricane Season- Hurricane Amanda-Strongest on Record>So Far
Invest 92L
http://i.imgur.com/FUIlN.png Invest 93L http://i.imgur.com/0EZCw.png This has been the source of our bad weather before it moved to where it is now. Hurricane Nadine http://i.imgur.com/POsmu.png Invest is a term used in meteorology, that is another word for a low. It's not a tropical low but one that could turn into one. |
re: Hurricane Season- Hurricane Amanda-Strongest on Record>So Far
Nadine
http://i.imgur.com/DIyOD.png Both invests 92L and 93L are dissipating and appear to present no dangers. |
re: Hurricane Season- Hurricane Amanda-Strongest on Record>So Far
Category 1 Hurricane Sandy
11.30pm 28 October 2012, EDT - Sandy About To Start Its Northward Turn 34.5N 70.5W Windspeed: 75 MPH - Pressure: 950mb Movement: Ne at 14 MPH These advisories come from the National Hurricane center: Usually they are updated at 5AM, 11AM, 5PM and 11PM eastern. When land areas are under a hurricane watch, it is updated every 3 hours. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi...8/AL1812W5.gif http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi...4_F120_sm2.gif http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi...4_F120_sm2.gif http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/r...MOV8-4.18L.GIF http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/arc...182012mlts.gif http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/arc...L182012lts.gif http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT18/AL1812P.GIF http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT18/AL1812S.GIF The Following Graphic is from the South Florida Water Management District http://image5.flhurricane.com/images...21028-2255.gif Update 28 October 2012 The northeast motion will likely continue today, the pressure is actually lower than yesterday, yet the wind field around the center is about the same, mainly because more energy is away from the center of Sandy. The northwestern side of the storm is being pulled north, and the dry air to the south continues. In short, this translates to a very ugly day along the Outer Banks, and starting to get progressively worse along the DelMarVa, Sandy is still forecast to hook back left and cross somewhere between the delmarva and eastern long island possibly with an even lower pressure than now. This would enhance the winds and storm surge along the entire landfall area. Models continue to show the system hooking westward while continuing to deepen right up until landfall. High Wind warnings are up along the coast north of North Carolina, but they are splitting hairs on when the difference between tropical and non-tropical transition occurs and either way hurricane force winds or gusts will be felt along many areas along with extremely long periods of tropical storm force winds, many of it onshore. Again today the north facing sound coastlines will be at risk for storm surge in eastern North Carolina, as well as north facing beaches along the outer banks.. Hatteras is vulnerable when the storm moves far enough north for the west wind to be a bit more pronounced. Original Update After weakening this morning to a tropical storm, aircraft recon has found Sandy regaining strength, and is back to a category 1 hurricane again as it moves into being a hybrid storm. Most of Sandy's convection is on the northern and western sides, in fact the south and east sides of Sandy have quite a bit of dry air. This is leaving south Florida clear this morning (with only lingering winds and surf), but central and northeastern Florida has seen most of the rain shield move offshore as well. South and North Carolina are now getting the lion's share of the rain from Sandy and the coasts there are going to feel the affects of the storm, the southern ends of the sounds inside the outer banks may see some flooding. Sandy is expected to stay about where it is now intensity wise at least over the next day. After that more of the interaction with the trough/front occurs and it may actually get stronger despite becoming less and less tropical. It may very well still have a warm core up until close to landfall. Forecast models have mostly consolidated on a landfall impact Monday evening in New Jersey, just south of New York City, which is not good news for Long Island and NYC. It could have impacts similar to the 1938 Long Island Express, which saw an immense amount of surge along the area and created Shinne**** Inlet, The extra energy that will occur with the front and polar systems injecting energy will allow for a long period of onshore winds that drive surge along quite a large area. Points north of landfall will likely see the worst surge, possibly for quite a distance north along the coast. Areas that have not seen coastal flooding in decades may do so from this storm. It is likely that travel will be disrupted in the northeast airports during parts of the storm, possible lasting a few days at certain locations. In short the riding from the approaching cold front interacting with Sandy will create a rather sharp pressure differential which increases the wind, and the moisture from sandy hitting the cold air behind the front forces extra moisture to form, and precipitation which results in massive rainstorm on the warm side of the front, and incredible amounts of snow on the colder side. The large amount of wind drives more water along the route, which would push water up the river and onto the shore, including the Jersey Shore, New York City, Long Island, and points north. Those south will see more offshore wind, but still quite a bit of impact. It is possible the area near the center will see record low pressures. Note the current large wind field of has a rough diameter of 105 miles of hurricane force winds and 450 miles of tropical storm force winds, and this area will likely grow by landfall. Gale conditions may start in the mid-Atlantic tomorrow. Power outages are likely to be extremely widespread across the northeast starting Monday (and Monday night into Tuesday in particular). Restoration in certain areas may take weeks. http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2012/SandyAMOct27.jpg TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL AL182012 1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ...SANDY ABOUT TO START ITS NORTHWARD TURN...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...COASTAL HURRICANE WINDS AND HEAVY APPALACHIAN SNOWS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.5N 70.5W ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM SSE OF NEW YORK CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * BERMUDA IN ADDITION...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS. THIS INCLUDES THE TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT... THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE BAY...AND THE COASTS OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND RHODE ISLAND. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN ENDPOINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING. OTHER COASTAL AND INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.5 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE OVER THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A FRONTAL OR WINTERTIME LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PRIOR TO LANDFALL. HOWEVER...THIS TRANSITION WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM...AND IN FACT...A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PROCESS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER MOVING INLAND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES... 280 KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 520 MILES...835 KM. A NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE STATION AT THE WILLOUGHBY DEGAUSSING STATION NEAR NORFOLK NAVAL STATION VIRGINIA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH...72 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 53 MPH...85 KM/H. A WEATHERFLOW STATION AT THIMBLE SHOALS VIRGINIA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 44 MPH...70 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 52 MPH...83 KM/H. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TONIGHT...AND REACH LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...ON MONDAY. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...4 TO 6 FT SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 3 FT LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO 11 FT ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY...3 TO 6 FT CAPE COD TO THE MA/NH BORDER INCLUDING CAPE COD BAY...2 TO 4 FT MA/NH BORDER TO THE U. S./CANADA BORDER...1 TO 3 FT SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION... ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY. FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. SNOWFALL...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER... WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER AND IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MARYLAND. SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES LATER TODAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. Thanks to FORECASTERs BEVEN/ROBERTS . |
re: Hurricane Season- Hurricane Amanda-Strongest on Record>So Far
Tropical Storm Humberto Forms off West Coast of Africa.
http://ts4.mm.bing.net/th?id=H.47795...h=150&c=7&rs=1 Mon Sep 9, 2013 12:35pm BST (Reuters) - Tropical Storm Humberto, the eighth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, has formed south of the Cape Verde Islands, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said in its latest advisory. Humberto, located 145 miles southeast of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands, was packing maximum sustained winds of 40 miles per hour (65 km/h) and moving towards the west at 12 mph (19 km/h), the NHC said. (Reporting by Arpan Varghese in Bangalore; editing by Tom Pfeiffer http://image.weather.com/web/newscen...apatlantic.jpg Atlantic http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/nhctab_on.jpg http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/nhctab_on.jpg ....... http://icons-ak.wxug.com/data/dhc_ar...s/at200708.gif Advisory from Weather.com, 9 September 2013 Tropical Storm Humberto has formed in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean, near the Cape Verde Islands off the west coast of Africa. Since Humberto will brush the southern Cape Verde Islands, tropical storm warnings have been issued. Humberto will gather strength the next few days and could become a hurricane by midweek. If this happens, Humberto would be the first Atlantic hurricane of the 2013 season. With that said, thanks to the Bermuda-Azores high becoming more of an "Azores high", coupled with a tropical upper-tropospheric trough (TUTT) nosing southwestward from the Mediterranean into the eastern Atlantic, this new tropical storm is likely to turn toward the northwest or north by mid-late week. Increasingly strong west to southwest winds expected to develop across the central Atlantic Ocean are expected to deflect this system well east of Bermuda next week. It is no threat to the Caribbean Sea or mainland U.S. http://ts2.mm.bing.net/th?id=H.45923...h=150&c=7&rs=1 ..... http://ts3.mm.bing.net/th?id=H.47456...h=150&c=7&rs=1 ...... http://ts3.mm.bing.net/th?id=H.45224...h=150&c=7&rs=1 ....... http://ts4.mm.bing.net/th?id=H.45911...h=150&c=7&rs=1 |
re: Hurricane Season- Hurricane Amanda-Strongest on Record>So Far
NOAA Predicts Active 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Era of High Activity for Atlantic Hurricanes Continues Earlier Report Issued 23 May, 2013 In its 2013 Atlantic hurricane season outlook issued today, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting an active or extremely active season this year. For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA’s Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook says there is a 70 percent likelihood of 13 to 20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 7 to 11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher). These ranges are well above the seasonal average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. “With the devastation of Sandy fresh in our minds, and another active season predicted, everyone at NOAA is committed to providing life-saving forecasts in the face of these storms and ensuring that Americans are prepared and ready ahead of time.” said Kathryn Sullivan, Ph.D., NOAA acting administrator. “As we saw first-hand with Sandy, it’s important to remember that tropical storm and hurricane impacts are not limited to the coastline. Strong winds, torrential rain, flooding, and tornadoes often threaten inland areas far from where the storm first makes landfall.” Three climate factors that strongly control Atlantic hurricane activity are expected to come together to produce an active or extremely active 2013 hurricane season. These are: A continuation of the atmospheric climate pattern, which includes a strong west African monsoon, that is responsible for the ongoing era of high activity for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995; Warmer-than-average water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea; and.... El Niño is not expected to develop and suppress hurricane formation. “This year, oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the Atlantic basin are expected to produce more and stronger hurricanes,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “These conditions include weaker wind shear, warmer Atlantic waters and conducive winds patterns coming from Africa." NOAA’s seasonal hurricane outlook is not a hurricane landfall forecast; it does not predict how many storms will hit land or where a storm will strike. Forecasts for individual storms and their impacts will be provided throughout the season by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. New for this hurricane season are improvements to forecast models, data gathering, and the National Hurricane Center communication procedure for post-tropical cyclones. In July, NOAA plans to bring online a new supercomputer that will run an upgraded Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model that provides significantly enhanced depiction of storm structure and improved storm intensity forecast guidance. Also this year, Doppler radar data will be transmitted in real time from NOAA’s Hurricane Hunter aircraft. This will help forecasters better analyze rapidly evolving storm conditions, and these data could further improve the HWRF model forecasts by 10 to 15 percent. The National Weather Service has also made changes to allow for hurricane warnings to remain in effect, or to be newly issued, for storms like Sandy that have become post-tropical. This flexibility allows forecasters to provide a continuous flow of forecast and warning information for evolving or continuing threats. “The start of hurricane season is a reminder that our families, businesses and communities need to be ready for the next big storm,” said Joe Nimmich, FEMA associate administrator for Response and Recovery. “Preparedness today can make a big difference down the line, so update your family emergency plan and make sure your emergency kit is stocked. Learn more about how you can prepare for hurricane season at www.ready.gov/hurricanes.” The week, May 26 - June 1, is National Hurricane Preparedness Week. To help those living in hurricane-prone areas prepare, NOAA is offering hurricane preparedness tips, along with video and audio public service announcements in both English and Spanish, featuring NOAA hurricane experts and the FEMA administrator at www.nhc.noaa.gov/prepare/. NOAA’s outlook for the Eastern Pacific basin is for a below-normal hurricane season and the Central Pacific basin is also expected to have a below-normal season. NOAA will issue an updated outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season in early August, just prior to the historical peak of the season. continued..... |
re: Hurricane Season- Hurricane Amanda-Strongest on Record>So Far
UPDATE
NOAA Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Update - Issued: 8 August 2013 Realtime monitoring of tropical Atlanticconditions Realtime monitoring of tropical East Pacific conditions Atlantic Hurricane Outlook & Seasonal Climate Summary Archive The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season outlook is an official product of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC). The outlook is produced in collaboration with hurricane experts from the NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Hurricane Research Division (HRD). The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. Interpretation of NOAA’s Atlantic hurricane season outlook This outlook is a general guide to the expected overall activity for the entire hurricane season. It is not a hurricane landfall forecast, and does not predict levels of activity for any particular region. Preparedness Hurricane disasters can occur whether a season is active or relatively quiet. It only takes one hurricane (or tropical storm) to cause a disaster. Residents, businesses, and government agencies of coastal and near-coastal regions are urged to prepare for every hurricane season regardless of this, or any other, seasonal outlook. NOAA, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the Small Business Administration, and the American Red Cross all provide important hurricane preparedness information on their web sites. NOAA does not make seasonal hurricane landfall predictions NOAA does not make seasonal hurricane landfall predictions. Hurricane landfalls are largely determined by the weather patterns in place as the hurricane approaches, which are only reasonably predictable when the storm is within several days of making landfall. Nature of this Outlook and the “likely” ranges of activity This outlook is probabilistic, meaning the stated “likely” ranges of activity have a certain likelihood of occurring. The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 7 out of 10 seasons with similar climate conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. They do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years. This outlook is based on 1) observations and predictions of large-scale climate factors known to influence seasonal hurricane activity, and 2) climate models that directly predict seasonal hurricane activity. Sources of uncertainty in this seasonal outlook 1. Predicting El Niño and La Niña (also called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO) events and their impacts is an ongoing scientific challenge facing climate scientists today. 2. Many combinations of named storms and hurricanes can occur for the same general set of climate conditions. For example, one cannot know with certainty in a given year whether the climate signals will be associated with more longer-lived but weaker storms, or with fewer shorter-lived but stronger storms. 3. Weather patterns that are unpredictable on seasonal time scales can sometimes develop and last for weeks or months, possibly affecting seasonal hurricane activity. 2013 Update Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: Summary NOAA’s updated 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook continues to call for an above-normal season, with the possibility that the season could be very active. The outlook indicates a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 5% chance for a below-normal season. See NOAA definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons, which have been slightly modified from previous years. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. As predicted in May, atmospheric and oceanic anomalies across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea (called the Main Development Region, MDR) are now conducive to an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season. These conditions are expected to persist throughout the peak months (August-October) of the hurricane season in association with the tropical multi-decadal signal, which has contributed to the high activity era that began in 1995. This signal is linked to above-average sea surface temperatures in the MDR and to an enhanced west African monsoon, both of which are now in place. The presence of two named storms in the deep tropical Atlantic during June-July reinforces the expectation for an above-normal season. Historically, years with early-season activity in this region have a high likelihood of being above-normal, with many also being very active (i.e., hyper-active). A third factor for the season is the likely continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions. There is only a low probability (19%) that La Niña will develop and further enhance the activity, and an even lower probability (8%) that El Niño will develop and suppress the activity. Based on the current and expected conditions, combined with model forecasts, we estimate a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity for the entire 2013 Atlantic hurricane season: 13-19 Named Storms 6-9 Hurricanes 3-5 Major Hurricanes Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 120%-190% of the median. The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 70% of seasons with similar climate conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. These ranges do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years. The expected ranges are centered well above the official NHC 1981-2010 seasonal averages of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Activity to Date: Four tropical storms (Andrea, Barry, Chantal, and Dorian) have formed in the Atlantic basin to date, with Chantal and Dorian forming in the deep tropical Atlantic. Significant activity is expected for the remainder of the season, with an additional 9-15 named storms likely, of which 6-9 are expected to become hurricanes with 3-5 reaching major hurricane status. Changes from the pre-season outlook issued May 23rd: All of the predicted ranges of activity have been lowered and narrowed slightly from the May outlook. Three reasons for these changes to the ranges are: 1) No hurricanes or major hurricanes formed during June and July; 2) The probability of La Niña developing during August-October is now low; and 3) Many models now have more conservative predictions of hurricane activity. Hurricane Landfalls: While NOAA does not make an official seasonal hurricane landfall outlook, the historical likelihood for multiple U.S. hurricane strikes, and for multiple hurricane strikes in the region around the Caribbean Sea, increases sharply for very active (or hyperactive) seasons (ACE > 165% of median). However, regardless of the activity predicted in the seasonal outlook, it only takes one storm hitting an area to cause a disaster. Therefore, residents, businesses, and government agencies of coastal and near-coastal regions are urged to prepare every hurricane season regardless of this, or any other, seasonal outlook. Predicting where and when hurricanes will strike is related to daily weather patterns, which are not reliably predictable weeks or months in advance. Therefore, it is currently not possible to accurately predict the number or intensity of landfalling hurricanes at these extended ranges, or whether a particular locality will be impacted by a hurricane this season. DISCUSSION 1. Expected 2013 activity Climate signals and evolving oceanic and atmospheric conditions, combined with dynamical and statistical model forecasts, continue to indicate a high likelihood (70% chance) for an above normal 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, with a reasonable possibility that the season could be very active (i.e., hyperactive). The outlook also indicates a 25% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 5% chance of a below-normal season. See NOAA definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons, which have been slightly modified from previous years. An important measure of the total seasonal activity is NOAA’s Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which accounts for the combined intensity and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes during the season. This outlook indicates a 70% chance that the 2013 seasonal ACE range will be 120%-190% of the median. According to NOAA’s hurricane season classifications, an ACE value above 120% of the 1981-2010 median reflects an above-normal season, and an ACE value above 165% of the median reflects a very active (or hyperactive) season. The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to produce (with 70% probability for each range) 13-19 named storms, of which 6-9 are expected to become hurricanes, and 3-5 are expected to become major hurricanes. These ranges are centered well above the 1981-2010 seasonal averages of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. Although this updated outlook is consistent with the pre-season outlook issued in May, all of the updated predicted ranges of activity have been lowered and narrowed slightly. These changes reflect: 1) The lack of hurricanes during June and July; 2) The latest CPC/ IRI ENSO forecast and many climate models which predict that La Niña is less likely to develop and further enhance the season; and 3) Some models are more conservative in their predictions of Atlantic hurricane activity. To date, four tropical storms (Andrea, Barry, Chantal, and Dorian) have formed in the Atlantic basin, with Chantal and Dorian forming in the deep tropical Atlantic. For the remainder of the season, an additional 9-15 named storms are expected, of which 6-9 are likely to become hurricanes with 3-5 reaching major hurricane status. For the U.S. and the region around the Caribbean Sea, the historical probability of a hurricane landfall generally increases with increasing seasonal activity. During very active seasons, the historical probabilities increase markedly for multiple hurricane strikes in these regions. Nonetheless, predicting the location, number, timing, and strength of hurricane landfalls is ultimately related to the daily weather patterns, which are not reasonably predictable weeks or months in advance. As a result, it is currently not possible to reliably predict the number or intensity of landfalling hurricanes at these extended ranges, or whether a given locality will be impacted by a hurricane this season. Therefore, NOAA does not make an official seasonal hurricane landfall outlook. 2. Science behind the 2013 Outlook The continued high confidence for an above-normal season is based on several factors. First, conducive atmospheric and oceanic conditions have developed across the MDR, as was predicted in May. Second, these conditions are expected to persist throughout the peak months (August-October) of the hurricane season in association with the tropical multi-decadal signal, which has contributed to the Atlantic high activity era that began in 1995. This multi-decadal signal is linked to above-average sea-surface temperatures in the Main Development Region (MDR, which spans the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Ocean between 9oN-21.5oN; Goldenberg et al. 2001), and to an enhanced west African monsoon system. Recent SST analyses and tropical circulation analyses show that both of these conditions are now in place. Third, early-season activity in the deep tropics (Tropical Storms Chantal and Dorian) is generally indicative of an above-normal season. Fourth, ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to persist through August-October. The outlook also takes into account dynamical model predictions from the NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFS), the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), the EUROpean Seasonal to Inter-annual Prediction (EUROSIP) ensemble, along with ENSO (El Niño/ Southern Oscillation) forecast models contained in the suite of Niño 3.4 SST forecasts compiled by the IRI (International Research Institute for Climate and Society). a. Expected continuation of tropical multi-decadal signal The main guiding factor behind this updated outlook is the expected continuation of the tropical multi-decadal signal (Goldenberg et al. 2001, Bell and Chelliah 2006), which has contributed to the current high-activity era in the Atlantic basin that began in 1995. This signal incorporates the warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and an enhanced west African monsoon system, both of which are in place again this summer. It is associated with inter-related atmospheric conditions that are conducive to increased Atlantic hurricane activity. During 1995-2012, some key atmospheric aspects of the tropical multi-decadal signal have included weaker easterly trade winds and reduced vertical wind shear in the MDR. The weaker trade winds are already present. They are associated with a more northward location and more conducive structure of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ), including increased cyclonic shear along its equator-ward flank. This position and structure of the AEJ strengthens African Easterly waves moving westward from Africa, and directs them westward over progressively warmer ocean waters and weaker vertical wind shear. During August-October, these waves and their associated convective cloud systems are responsible for the vast majority of Atlantic hurricanes and major hurricanes. During July, the weaker vertical wind shear was not yet well established across the MDR, and instead was variable in association with strong intra-seasonal variability partly linked to the Madden- Julian Oscillation (MJO). Therefore, although the climate signals point to an above-normal season, the shorter-term variability in the vertical wind shear lends uncertainty as to how strong the season will be. If the shear remains highly variable, then the activity could be near the lower end of the predicted ranges. If the shear weakens further, which would be consistent with the expected climate patterns, then the activity could be near the middle or higher end of the predicted ranges. b. Expected above-average SSTs in the Main Development Region The second factor guiding this outlook is the expected continuation of above-average SSTs across the MDR throughout August-October. This expectation is based on current observations, the ongoing warm phase of the AMO, and CFS T-382 model forecasts. June-July sea surface temperatures measured over the entire MDR were 0.10oC above-average, and were also 0.09oC warmer than the remainder of the global tropics. While this relative warmth is somewhat less than in some recent years, it is consistent with the ongoing high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes, and with the continued expectation for an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season. c. ENSO-Neutral conditions ENSO is another climate factor known to significantly impact Atlantic hurricane activity. The three phases of ENSO are El Niño, La Niña, and neutral. El Niño tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, while La Niña tends to enhance it (Gray 1984). These typical impacts can be strongly modulated by conditions associated with a low- or high-activity hurricane era. The combination of a high-activity era, above-average Atlantic SSTs, and ENSO-neutral conditions historically produces active or very active Atlantic hurricane seasons. ENSO-neutral conditions have been present throughout the summer. SSTs are currently slightly below average across the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific, and the Niño 3.4 index is slightly negative. The equatorial Pacific sub-surface temperatures are near average. The observations, ENSO model forecasts, and the latest CPC/IRI ENSO forecast issued August 8th, all suggest ENSO-Neutral conditions are likely to continue through August-October. For this period, the CPC/ IRI forecast indicates a 73% chance of ENSO-neutral, a 19% chance of La Niña, and only an 8% chance of El Niño. 3. Multi-decadal fluctuations in Atlantic hurricane activity Atlantic hurricane seasons exhibit extended periods lasting decades (25-40 years) of generally above-normal or below-normal activity. These multi-decadal fluctuations in hurricane activity result almost entirely from differences in the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes forming from tropical storms that first develop in the MDR. The current high-activity era began in 1995 (Goldenberg et al. 2001). Hurricane seasons during 1995-2012 have averaged about 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE value of 151% of the median. Also, the continental U.S. has averaged almost 2 landfalling hurricanes per year during this period. NOAA classifies 12 of the 18 seasons since 1995 as above normal, with eight being very active (i.e. hyperactive). Only two seasons since 1995 were below normal (1997 and 2009, which were both El Niño years). This high level of activity contrasts sharply to the low-activity era of 1971-1994 (Goldenberg et al. 2001), which averaged only 9.5 named storms (which includes likely under-counts prior during 1971-1980, Landsea et al. 2010), 5 hurricanes, and 1.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index of 74% of the median. One-half of the seasons during this period were below normal, only two were above normal (1980, 1989), and none were hyperactive. Also, the average number of landfalling hurricanes during this period (1.3) was almost 50% lower than that observed during 1995-2012 (1.9). Within the MDR, the atmospheric circulation anomalies that contribute to these long-period fluctuations in hurricane activity are strongly linked to the Tropical multi-decadal signal (Bell and Chelliah 2006), which incorporates the warm phase of the AMO and an enhanced west African monsoon system. A change in the phase of the tropical multi-decadal signal coincides with the transition in 1995 from a low-activity era to the current high-activity era. END Thanks & Credit to: NOAA FORECASTERS Climate Prediction Center/NWS Dr. Gerry Bell, Lead Forecaster, Meteorologist; [email protected] Dr. Jae Schemm, Meteorologist; [email protected] National Hurricane Center/NWS Eric Blake, Hurricane Specialist; [email protected] Todd Kimberlain, Hurricane Specialist; Todd [email protected] Dr. Chris Landsea, Meteorologist; [email protected] Dr. Richard Pasch, Hurricane Specialist; [email protected] Hurricane Research Division/OAR Stanley Goldenberg, Meteorologist; [email protected] |
re: Hurricane Season- Hurricane Amanda-Strongest on Record>So Far
Due to the US Federal Government shutdown, NOAA.gov and most associated web sites are unavailable. However, because the information this site provides is necessary to protect life and property, it will be updated and maintained during the Federal Government shutdown.
NHC Active Tropical Cyclones Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of Mexico Tropical Weather Outlook 200 PM EDT WED OCT 2 2013 http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics/TS.gif Tropical Storm JERRY ... JERRY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD... 5:00 PM AST Wed Oct 2 Location: 29.3°N 42.6°W Moving: NE at 7 mph Min pressure: 1009 mb Max sustained: 40 mph NHC Marine Forecasts & Analyses http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/nhctab_on.jpg http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/overview_atl/atl_marine.gif http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/...latest_sm2.png THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY AT 02/1500 UTC IS NEAR 28.2N 43.9W...NEARLY IN THE MIDDLE OF BERMUDA AND THE AZORES. JERRY IS STATIONARY AT THE MOMENT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT JERRY THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1...AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORIES THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 42W AND 44W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ABOUT 100 NM TO THE EAST- SOUTHEAST OF JERRY. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IT SURROUNDS JERRY FROM 22N TO 31N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 37W AND 39W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 85W...FROM 24N IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO EASTERN HONDURAS. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 18N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 15N TO 22N/23N IN WESTERN CUBA BETWEEN 80W AND 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N79W 13N81W 15N82W. THIS LINE OF PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE BIGGER AREA OF NUMEROUS STRONG PRECIPITATION THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 15N. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SECTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IT IS LIKELY THAT STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL LIMIT DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS MAY AFFECT THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...PARTS OF CUBA...AND PARTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE WAS REPOSITIONED IN ORDER TO AGREE MORE WITH THE LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W...AND FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 36W AND 38W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE CURVES ALONG 20N47W 15N43W 10N41W MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS. THIS POSITION AGREES WITH THE LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N43W 15N43W 18N44W 19N45W 21N46W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL TO 11N20W AND 12N27W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 12N27W TO 12N35W 10N42W 6N50W...TO THE COAST OF THE BORDERS OF FRENCH GUIANA AND NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 4N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 17W AND 19W...AND FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 22W AND 26W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 45W AND 60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 15W AND 25W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...INTO COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS...INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR 25N100W...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE TEXAS BORDER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS FROM FLORIDA TO TEXAS...TO THE NORTHWEST OF 30N85W 27N90W 26N97W...AND INLAND IN TEXAS FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG 93W TO THE SOUTH OF 22N. THE TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURVING ANTICYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 88W. THIS MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 85W SPECIAL FEATURES SURFACE TROUGH AND 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED AT THE ICAO STATION KGVX. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED AT THE ICAO STATION KMDJ. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS COVER TEXAS FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST SOUTHWARD. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KINGSVILLE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS FROM FLORIDA TO TEXAS...TO THE NORTHWEST OF 30N85W 27N90W 26N97W...AND INLAND IN TEXAS FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W...FROM PORT LAVACA TO ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA...AND IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE FOUND ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE AND THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN IN LOUISIANA...IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...TO APALACHICOLA IN FLORIDA. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED AT THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS FOUND IN NAPLES FLORIDA. A MIDDLE LEVEL AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE FOUND AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 12- HOUR FORECAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH TO BE ALONG 87W...WITH A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 22N87W. EXPECT WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET...WITHIN 120 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER. EXPECT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 21N TO 26N TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH TO 84W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 23N56W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 19N61W...TO 15N66W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO NORTHWESTERN COASTAL VENEZUELA NEAR 10N/11N ALONG 69W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 69W AND 75W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N54W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 18N62W TO 14N69W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING/WEAKENING FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W...TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THIS AREA...THAT IS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN- TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 02/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...ARE 0.58 IN GUADELOUPE...0.35 IN KINGSTON...0.26 IN CURACAO...0.11 IN MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N75W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 8N73W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ANY PRECIPITATION IS TRAILING THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS RELATED TO THE 85W SPECIAL FEATURES SURFACE TROUGH. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W. THE 6-HOUR FORECAST INDICATES THAT A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE ALONG 97W WITH AN EMBEDDED 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 19N86W. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 18N TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH TO 82W. HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE 500 MB GFS MODEL SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE FOR THE START OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HISPANIOLA WILL END UP IN A COL POINT FOR MUCH OF THE 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. A TROUGH WILL CUT ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST AND COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 25N62W TO 21N64W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N75W 30N78W 27N79W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 33N62W 30N61W 28N61W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 65W AND 69W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 27N BETWEEN 73W AND 81W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 27N TO 34N BETWEEN 64W AND 78W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 01/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...ARE 0.08 IN BERMUDA AND 0.15 IN NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS. A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 24N63W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 27N BETWEEN 54W AND 71W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N17W TO 30N23W 29N30W AND 29N37W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 22W AND 38W. A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N29W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 38W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM JERRY IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA. |
Tropical Storm Karen Churns in the Gulf of Mexico
Updated 6:53 AM EDT, Fri October 4, 2013
http://ts3.mm.bing.net/th?id=HB.2128...7&rs=1&pid=1.7 http://ts1.mm.bing.net/th?id=HB.2815...7&rs=1&pid=1.7http://ts1.mm.bing.net/th?id=HB.2816...7&rs=1&pid=1.7 (CNN) -- A soggy weekend is in store for parts of the U.S. Gulf Coast as Tropical Storm Karen churns in the central Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center issued a hurricane watch for the area from Grand Isle, Louisiana, to west of Destin, Florida. The center of the storm is forecast to be near the coast within that area Saturday. A tropical storm warning is in effect from Grand Isle to the mouth of the Pearl River on the Louisiana-Mississippi line. "Karen could be near hurricane strength late Friday and early Saturday," the hurricane center said, although the storm's tracking map never shows Karen becoming a hurricane. The storm, which was about 295 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi River early Friday, prompted the Federal Emergency Management Agency to recall some of its workers, furloughed during the government shutdown. The agency also reactivated its Hurricane Liaison Team at the National Hurricane Center in Miami. FEMA officials in the Atlanta and Denton, Texas, offices are monitoring Karen. "At all times, FEMA maintains commodities, including millions of liters of water, millions of meals and hundreds of thousands of blankets, strategically located at distribution centers throughout the United States, including in the Gulf Coast region, that are available to state and local partners if needed and requested," the agency said in a statement. The hurricane center said it, too, would be unaffected by the government shutdown as Karen approaches. "The National Hurricane Center is fully operational ... and has all of its resources available to it," spokesman Dennis Feltgen said in an e-mail. "The government shutdown will not inhibit NHC from providing its mission." Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal declared a statewide state of emergency. Florida Gov. Rick Scott declared a state of emergency in 18 counties. New Orleans officials released a statement asking residents to "monitor weather conditions and stay alert." The city is included in the tropical storm watch area. Karen formed between Cuba and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. It was producing sustained winds of 60 mph, with higher gusts. The storm slightly weakened overnight. The storm is movingnorth-northwest at 10 mph, the hurricane center said. "Karen is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast through Sunday night," the hurricane center said. "Isolated storm total amounts of 12 inches are possible." |
Re: Tropical Storm Karen Churns in the Gulf of Mexico
UPDATE: Karen Weakens to Tropical Depression in Gulf of Mexico
http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/truvu/...us_650x366.jpg What started as Tropical Storm Karen has fizzled to a tropical depression, easing fears along the Gulf Coast that the cyclone could wreak havoc as a hurricane. Karen's downgrade from a tropical storm to a depression means its maximum sustained winds are now under 38 mph. As of late Saturday night, Tropical Depression Karen was stationary about 120 miles south-southwest of Morgan City, Louisiana, the National Hurricane Center said. All tropical storm warnings have been discontinued. As Karen spun in place, it carried maximum winds of about 35 mph. But the center of the depression is expected to move near or over the southeastern tip of Louisiana on Sunday, the weather agency said. It will likely move just south of the Gulf Coast from Alabama to the Florida Panhandle late Sunday and into Monday. Karen could dump 1 to 3 inches of rain over parts of the central Gulf Coast and the southeast through Monday night. "Localized coastal flooding is possible along portions of the northern Gulf Coast," the hurricane center said. But little change in strength is forecast on Sunday, the weather center said. By Monday, Karen is expected to sputter out into a remnant low. |
re: Hurricane Season-Hurricanes Iselle & Julio +El Nino is Coming
Amanda Becomes Strongest May Hurricane On Record May 30, 2014
Report by Earthweek http://www.earthweek.com/2014/ew140530/Hurricane.jpg http://www.earthweek.com/2014/ew140530/ew140530e.gif Hurricane Amanda can be seen reaching its maximum intensity on Sunday morning local time well to the south of Mexico's Baja California peninsula. The first named storm to emerge in the Eastern Pacific hurricane season quickly became one for the record books. Hurricane Amanda underwent explosive development after it formed well off the Mexican coast, soon reaching Category-4 force. With maximum sustained winds of 155 mph on May 25, Amanda became the most powerful May Pacific storm on record. That beat out Hurricane Adolph of 2001, which generated winds of 145 mph on May 29 of that year. Amanda was predicted to spin out over open waters of the Pacific without threatening any land areas. MORE: Friday, 30 May, 2014, by Nick Prebble, MeteoGroup UK Eastern Pacific Hurricanes Begin http://292fc373eb1b8428f75b-7f75e5eb...9f-620x348.jpg A woman walks on a sidewalk next to a flooded street after torrential rains hit several neighbourhoods in Mexico City. Photo: Bernardo Montoya/Reuters This week saw the first named storm of the year as Hurricane Amanda formed in the Eastern Pacific, attaining category 4 status for a time with peak winds of 250kph. Amanda started last week as a cluster of heavy showers and thunderstorms approximately 1,046km southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, and encountered favourable conditions for tropical cyclone development. The basic ingredients of warm sea surface temperatures, weak atmospheric wind shear and a small component of Coriolis Force were met and by Saturday the system had reached hurricane 4... http://cdn.phys.org/newman/gfx/news/...opicalstor.jpg NASA's CloudSat satellite flew over Hurricane Amanda on May 25, at 5 p.m. EDT and saw a deep area of moderate to heavy-moderate precipitation below the freezing level (where precipitation changes from frozen to liquid). http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/im...ra-5-25-14.jpg Waters in the tropical Eastern Pacific have been warming recently, increasing the odds of an El Niño... :crap: continued....... |
re: Hurricane Season-Hurricanes Iselle & Julio +El Nino is Coming
continued.....
Waters in the tropical Eastern Pacific have been warming recently, increasing the odds of an El Niño... http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/im...sst_amanda.gif Amanda’s track starting on May 22 over warm surface waters. (Source: CIMSS Satellite Blog) http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/im...elvin-Wave.gif Cross-sectional views of five-day-average temperature in the top 300 meters of the Pacific Ocean in February, March, and April 2014 compared to the 1981-2010 average. (Images: Climate.gov. Animation: Tom Yulsman) El Niño Odds Boosted Again: Now Exceed 65% By Summer- El Niño’s a comin’… Probably..... By Discovermagazine..... The latest update on the climatic phenomenon that has the potential to strongly influence weather around the world has just been posted by the Climate Prediction Center. The verdict: By summer, the chances of an El Niño developing will exceed 65 percent — up from 50 percent in the CPC’s previous update in early April. And many forecasters are saying that it could be a big one. Really big. The CPC issued an El Niño “watch” back in March, and that continues — for now. This means the conditions of the ocean and atmosphere in the tropical Pacific region are favorable an El Niño developing within the next six months. When an El Niño develops, warm water in the western tropical Pacific shifts to the east, carrying lots of rain with it. This, in turn, triggers a chain of weather effects. More about those in a minute. But first, what has been happening in the Pacific that is raising the odds of an El Niño? For one, over the past few months a gargantuan blob of abnormally warm water has been working its way beneath the Pacific Ocean from west to east. You can see this “Kelvin wave” in the animation above. The animation consists of three cross-sectional views of the Pacific down to 300 meters, from the middle of February, March and April respectively. The colors indicate how the temperature of the water departed from the long term average. (One caveat: The surface map and ocean-depth cross-section in the animation are not to relative scale.) As the animation illustrates, the blob began in the western Pacific in mid-February; by mid-April, it had shifted way to the West and was close to the surface. According to today’s Climate Prediction Center update, the upper portion of warm water has in fact reached the sea surface. That by itself does not mean an El Niño has begun. But when the monthly average sea surface temperature in the eastern Pacific is 0.5° Celsius or more above average, and other conditions are met as well, the CPC will declare that an El Niño is in progress. http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/im...05/sstanim.gif Source: Climate Prediction Center Normally, trade winds blow from east to west, which pushes warm surface waters away from South America and toward Indonesia. This allows cool water to well up to the surface from the ocean depths off the coast of South America. But as an El Niño develops, those trade winds tend to slacken, and even reverse. This allows warm water to slosh back from the western side of the Pacific toward the eastern side. (Click on the thumbnail for an animation showing a warming of surface waters in the eastern half of the tropical Pacific Ocean.) In fact, the Climate Prediction Center notes that weak, anomalous westerly winds developed in the western Pacific during April. Moreover, storminess was enhanced over the west-central equatorial Pacific. “These atmospheric and oceanic conditions collectively indicate a continued evolution toward El Niño,” according to the CPC. What typically happens when an El Niño develops? Peru experiences dramatically increased rainfall, with the potential for devastating flooding. In winter, Southern California and the southern United States tend to experience wetter than normal conditions, while the Pacific Northwest gets drier. Meanwhile, Alaska and Western Canada typically experience unusual warmth. Meanwhile, on the western side of the Pacific, El Niño typically brings drought — and sometimes devastating brush fires in Australia. http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/im...p_nino_100.jpg Source:NASA/GISTEMP -(Click the thumbnail graphic above for an illustration illustrating this phenomenon.) There is usually a very significant global effect as well. The warmth that El Niño brings to many areas of the world is typically added on top of the background, human-caused warming of the planet. As a result, El Niño years tend to be particularly warm globally. In fact, the super El Niño year of 1998 was among the three warmest on record. And 2010, which saw a moderate El Niño, tied with 2005 for warmest ever. Independently of the Climate Prediction Center, Klaus Wolter of NOAA’s Earth Systems Research Laboratory monitors conditions that give rise to El Niño and its opposite, La Niña. The two climatic phenomena are part of what’s known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. Wolter released his latest ENSO assessment yesterday. He notes that there are still signs in parts of the Pacific Ocean basin of a lingering La Niña, but also evidence of a developing El Niño as well. As part of his assessment, Wolter looked to the past to see what has happened during times when conditions evolved as they have done during the past two months. Here’s what he came up with: Of the 10 cases selected in this fashion, two (1984, 2001) remained either neutral or dropped back to at least weak La Niña status within the year. Of the remaining eight, seven ended up as bona fide El Niño events (1951, 1957, 1965, 1991, 1994, 2002, and 2009), while one ended up as a short-lived one (2012).In other words, it is possible that an El Niño may not develop, or if it does, it could be a dud. But don’t bet on it. Wolter’s conclusion:While the overall assessment remains ENSO-neutral, change is obviously on its way, and I expect to see a further shift towards El Niño-like anomalies by next month. |
re: Hurricane Season-Hurricanes Iselle & Julio +El Nino is Coming
Fourth of July Travel Chaos:
New York Airports Cancel 385 Flights with Thousands more Delayed -100mph Hurricane Arthur Hammers North Carolina and Rains off Celebrations
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...77_964x399.jpg Daily Mail UK, 4 July 2014 Since Thursday New York airports have cancelled a total of 385 flights as cities were forced to cancel Fourth of July plans as Hurricane Arthur landed near Cape Lookout, North Carolina (center). Thousands more flights have been delayed, with passengers at Newark Liberty International reporting delays of up to three hours. Another 20,000 people in North Carolina are also without power this morning as 100mph winds tear down power lines and rain lashes houses. More than 1,000 flights have been cancelled across the East Coast, with 385 of those in New York alone, after Hurricane Arthur made landfall last night with winds of up to 100mph forcing cities to cancel their Fourth of July plans. Travellers trying to get home to their families for celebrations faced chaos as thousands more were delayed, with travellers at New York's Newark Liberty Airport facing delays of up to three hours. Fourth of July festivities in several cities in Maine, New Hampshire and New Jersey have been cancelled and moved to tomorrow or Sunday, while officials in Maine have delayed their fireworks until August 2. http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...25_964x638.jpg Almost 400 flights have been cancelled at New York airports as Hurricane Arthur made landfall last night, bringing 100mph winds and lashing rain (the storm pictured by Reid Wiseman from the International Space Station) http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...78_964x638.jpg Passengers at New York's airports have faced delays of up to three hours as hundreds of flights are cancelled. At La Guardia (pictured), 83 flights have been cancelled since yesterday http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...88_964x625.jpg Almost 20,000 people were without power this morning as the storm came ashore late last night, shortly after being upgraded to Category II http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...23_964x614.jpg Fourth of July celebrations in Maine, New Hampshire and New Jersey have been cancelled and moved to tomorrow or Sunday after lashing rain forced people to run for cover or stay indoors Organisers in Boston moved their annual festival from Friday to Thursday after Hurricane warnings. Yesterday they were forced to cut the concerts short to start the fireworks, narrowly missing heavy rain which then began falling. Flight Aware reports that, since yesterday, there have been 385 cancellations at New York's main airports - including Kennedy International, Newark Liberty and La Guardia - with a further 598 delays. According to the Daily Beast, a total of 1,149 flights have been cancelled across the East Coast so far, with another 4,800 delayed. Four cruise ships were also diverted to avoid the path of the storm. Norwegian Gem cancelled a scheduled port of call at Great Stirrup Cay in the Bahamas due to the incoming storm. Three ships operated by Royal Caribbean also cancelled scheduled stops at CocoCay in the Bahamas in a bid to move on and stay ahead of Hurricane Arthur and its surrounding high winds and rain. Majesty of the Seas, Enchantment of the Seas and Grandeur of the Seas will instead spend extra time at sea. More than 20,000 customers were without power near North Carolina's coast early on Friday morning, according to utility Duke Energy. Arthur strengthened to a Category 2 hurricane Thursday night, its winds gusting up to 101mph, before it made landfall near the southern end of the Outer Banks in North Carolina. Little change was expected in the storm's strength overnight and Friday, and Arthur was expected to weaken as it travels northward and slings rain along the East Coast. http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...77_636x358.jpg http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...83_964x576.jpg Preparations: Lifeguards and firefighters voluntarily set down a lifeguard stand, rather than have it damaged from the coming of Hurricane Arthur, at Atlantic Beach, N.C, on Thursday http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...36_964x620.jpg Arthur's here: The Category 2 hurricane made landfall near the southern end of the Outer Banks in North Carolina Thursday night http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...17_964x607.jpg Tracking the storm: Just before midnight Thursday, Arthur was located about 5 miles northwest of Cape Lookout and 65 miles southwest of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...58_964x632.jpg Dark and stormy: The skyline of Lower Manhattan is seen under the arrival of a summer storm in New York Thursday http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...70_964x630.jpg Lights out for Lady Liberty: The Statue of Liberty is seen under gathering storm clouds Thursday The hurricane reached land at 11.15pm between Cape Lookout and Beaufort, North Carolina, near the southern end of the Outer Banks, a 200-mile string of narrow barrier islands with about 57,000 permanent residents. The islands are susceptible to high winds, rough seas and road-clogging sands, prompting an exodus that began Wednesday night. Among the tourists leaving Hatteras Island were 27-year-old Nichole Specht and 28-year-old Ryan Witman of Lancaster, Pennsylvania. The couple started driving at 3.30am Thursday on North Carolina Highway 12, the only road on and off Hatteras. ‘We were just saying we were really, really lucky this year that the weather was so great, and then this,’ Specht said as she ended a two-week vacation. Many island residents, meanwhile, decided to ride out the powerful storm rather than risk losing access to homes connected to the mainland by a highway prone to washouts. In the last hours before the hurricane's approach late Thursday, Lena Lines helped to move furniture from the basement to the first floor of the home she shares with her parents to save it from possible flooding. They live in a complex of canals and sound-front homes in the shadow of a memorial to the Wright Brothers, who made the first powered flight in Kill Devil Hills. Before the storm hit, tourism officials had expected 250,000 people to travel to the Outer Banks for the holiday weekend. Gov. Pat McCrory sought to strike a balance between a stern warning to vacationers and optimism that part of the busy weekend could be salvaged. ‘Of course, this holiday weekend, the July 4th weekend, is one of the biggest weekends for coastal tourism in the state, and we anticipate a beautiful weekend after the Tropical Storm Arthur or the Hurricane Arthur is out of North Carolina,’ he said. http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...95_964x981.jpg Red flag day: The storm is churning up dangerous conditions on beaches from Florida to New England - rip currents, flooding and rough water. Daytona Beach, Florida is seen here on Wednesday http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...27_964x539.jpg Fleeing inland: Mandatory evacuation orders have been issued for parts of the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Vacationers are voluntarily fleeing other parts of the flood-prone varrier islands http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...95_964x677.jpg Battening down the hatches: Peter LeWando puts plywood sheets over the windows of the apartment where he lives in Avon, North Carolina, in the Outer Banks on Thursday http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...24_964x625.jpg Planning ahead: Nicole Specht and and Ryan Witman pack their Honda CRV on the Outer Banks to head back home to Lancaster, Pennsylvania. Hurricane Arthur has cut short Fourth of July vacations for thousands of vacationers Arthur, the first named storm of the Atlantic season, prompted a hurricane warning for much of the North Carolina coast. On the Outer Banks' Ocracoke Island, accessible only by ferry, a voluntary evacuation was underway. Tropical storm warnings were also in effect for coastal areas in South Carolina and Virginia and as far north as Cape Cod, Massachusetts. On the Massachusetts island of Nantucket, no evacuations were planned, but residents who have lived through many a fierce storm said they know better than to totally relax. Just before midnight Thursday, Arthur was located about 5 miles northwest of Cape Lookout and 65 miles southwest of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. It was moving northeast at 18 mph. Torrential rain and high winds from South Carolina to Boston threatened to hamper Fourth of July travel for millions of Americans. Nearly 500 flights have been delayed and 300 canceled Thursday. The storm is also bringing dangerous conditions to beaches up and down the coast, as the rough seas stir up rip currents, powerful waves and coastal flooding. A Wednesday night thunderstorm left parts of New York City and Upstate New York flooded. A section of the facade inside an underpass of the Brooklyn Bridge collapsed, injuring five people. Additional thunderstorms brought more than an inch of rain to the Northeast Thursday evening. In New York City, a flash flood warning is in effect until noon Friday. Officials in many cities prepared for the worst. The annual Boston Pops Fourth of July concert and fireworks show was rescheduled for Thursday because of potential heavy rain from Arthur. The fireworks thundered and flashed over the Charles River, just beating the storm. http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...23_964x633.jpg Early celebration: Spectators wave flags during a concert at the Hatch Shell on the Esplanade in Boston, Thursday, July 3, 2014. The annual Boston Pops Fourth of July concert was moved up a day because of Hurricane Arthur http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...92_964x621.jpg Show must go on: The Beach Boys, including original members Mike Love, second from left, and Bruce Johnston, third from left, perform at the Hatch Shell on the Esplanade in Boston http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...30_470x714.jpg http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...33_470x714.jpg Spectacular sight: The fireworks thundered and flashed over the Charles River in Boston, just beating the Thursday night storm http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...11_964x643.jpg Patriotic: Petty Officer 1st Class Jason Thompson, right, of Detroit, and Megan Schinker, 13, of Stow, Ohio, watch a reading by Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick in Boston http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...71_964x603.jpg Belt it out: Megan Hilty performs during a concert at the Hatch Shell on the Esplanade http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...24_964x541.jpg Warnings: The entire North Carolina coast and some of South Carolina has been put on notice ahead of Hurricane Arthur http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...51_964x541.jpg Forecasters say Hurricane Arthur won't fully make landfall - but it will be very close - and likely pass straight over the Outer Banks http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...14_964x898.jpg Travel nightmare? Flights are already heavily delayed at all of the airports between Washington, D.C., and New York City. Boston's Logan International and both major North Carolina airports are still operating as normal Before that Beach Boys founder Mike Love, Broadway star Megan Hilty and the Boston Children's Chorus made their way through lively performances and thousands of revelers sang along to patriotic songs. Augusta, Maine, moved its fireworks display to Aug. 2 to coincide with an annual festival, while several New Hampshire cities moved their fireworks shows to either Saturday or Sunday. In New Jersey, Atlantic City and Ocean City moved their fireworks to Sunday. In New York City the annual Macy's fireworks show will be back on the East River after five years on the Hudson River. A spokesman said the show, the largest Fourth of July fireworks display in the nation, will go on no matter Friday's weather. Another New York tradition is the Nathan's hot dog eating contest at Coney Island, where champion Joey Chestnut, who ate 69 wieners and buns in 10 minutes last year, will defend his title on Friday. In Oklahoma, the city of Pauls Valley has its own July 4 food competition: a watermelon seed-spitting contest. The record, set in 1989, is 66 feet, 11 inches. Before the storm hit, tourism officials had expected 250,000 people to travel to the Outer Banks for the holiday weekend. Gov. Pat McCrory sought to strike a balance between a stern warning to vacationers and optimism that part of the busy weekend could be salvaged. But the next day, even as the storm gathered strength, he said: 'Of course, this holiday weekend, the July 4th weekend, is one of the biggest weekends for coastal tourism in the state, and we anticipate a beautiful weekend after the Tropical Storm Arthur or the Hurricane Arthur is out of North Carolina.' http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...32_964x652.jpg Hurricane Arthur has proved an unwelcome visitor to the Outer Banks, which depends on summer visitors for much of its economy http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...13_964x639.jpg On Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina, high winds are making for dangerous conditions http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...42_964x663.jpg Hardly swimming weather: Beach goers huddle on the beach at Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina on Thursday Some visitors stayed put, hopeful the fast-moving storm would follow predictions to pass through by Friday afternoon. About 20 miles north of the only bridge off Hatteras, Sean Fitzgerald and his 5-year-old son, Cade, enjoyed a sunny morning lounging in beach chairs in the town of Kill Devil Hills. The sand was dotted with tourists. A handful of surfers took to the water. Like all areas north of Oregon Inlet, Kill Devils Hills wasn't under an evacuation. Fitzgerald said he saw no need to disrupt his family's vacation. 'I plan to sit on the beach as long as the sun is here,' then head out for a seafood dinner, said Fitzgerald, 44, of Fairfax, Virginia. Those who don't evacuate the islands should prepare for possibly getting stuck for several days without food, water or power, National Hurricane Center forecaster Stacy Stewart said early Thursday. 'We want the public to take this system very seriously, go ahead and start their preparations because time is beginning to run out,' he said. Arthur, the first named storm of the Atlantic season, prompted a hurricane warning for much of the North Carolina coast. Tropical storm warnings were in effect for coastal areas in South Carolina and Virginia. On the Outer Banks' Ocracoke Island, accessible only by ferry, a voluntary evacuation was underway. Officials said ferry service would end at 5pm. http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...41_636x358.jpg http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...33_964x702.jpg Some bathers in Wrightsville Beach seemed to enjoy the rough conditions that the hurricane brought - though they stayed out of the water http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...49_964x600.jpg In Carolina Beach, North Carolina, police blocked off beach access as the hurricane approached the coast Before sunset Wednesday on Highway 12, a long line of cars, trailers and recreational vehicles formed a steady stream of traffic. The road has been sliced apart twice in recent years as storms cut temporary channels from the ocean to the sound. N.C. 12 is easily blocked by sand and water. Officials called the evacuation for Hatteras Island residents and visitors mandatory, but some residents were likely to stay, as in past storms. Mike Rabe of Virginia Beach, Virginia, planned to remain in his Outer Banks beach home the entire weekend. He and his wife, Jan, stowed lawn furniture and anything else that could be tossed about by winds, then planned to help a neighbor. 'I'm going to ride it out,' Rabe, 53, said. As Arthur made landfall on Thursday, it narrowly missed out on being the first hurricane to do so on July Fourth, according to National Hurricane Center research that goes back to the 1850s. http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...62_964x648.jpg The Northeast, parts of Texas and the Rocky Mountains can expect thunderstorms and rain for the Fourth of July http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...26_964x648.jpg Bright sunshiny day: Saturday is forecast to be beautiful from Los Angeles to Boston - with a few patches of storms in the upper Midwest and the Atlantic coast of Florida http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...92_964x648.jpg More sun: Sunday is also slated to be beautiful for much of the nation - though the southwest to rise into the triple digits |
re: Hurricane Season-Hurricanes Iselle & Julio +El Nino is Coming
Hurricane Season Dates
Hurricane season in the Atlantic begins June 1st and ends November 30th. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins May 15th and also ends November 30th. http://icons.wxug.com/data/images/ss.../gl_sst_mm.gif LATEST- NORTH ATLANTIC: (1) Active Storm in this Region - TS Halong http://icons.wxug.com/data/images/bl...gif?2014730751 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located about 1300 miles east of the southern Windward Islands remain limited. The circulation of the system is well organized, however, and the low could develop into a tropical depression later today or tomorrow while it moves generally west-northwestward near 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Thanks to Forecaster Cangialosi LATEST-EAST PACIFIC : http://icons.wxug.com/data/images/bl...gif?2014730756 (1) Active Storm in this Region Tropical Depression Genevieve; http://resize-ak.wunderground.com/cg...266&height=192 Pressure: 1009 mb Last UpdatedJul 30, 2014 0900 GMT Location 12.9N 149.0W Movement W Wind 35 MPH LATEST- CENTRAL PACIFIC : http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_pac_0d0.png TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 803 PM HST TUE JUL 29 2014 For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180. 1. Tropical depression Genevieve is currently located about 610 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Genevieve is moving westward at about 5 mph. The next advisory for this system will be issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu by 11 pm HST tonight. 2. An elongated area of showers and thunderstorms is located about 820 miles south southwest of Oahu. The surrounding environment may permit this system to develop slightly as it continues to move slowly west during the next couple of days.* Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 20 percent. 3. An area of disorganized convection was centered about 1600 miles southwest of Oahu. There is little, if any, indication that any organization is possible with this system during the next couple of days.* Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent. Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Thursday evening. NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: An area of low pressure located about 1000 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions should support the gradual development of this system during the next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Disorganized cloudiness and showers are associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 1500 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. |
re: Hurricane Season-Hurricanes Iselle & Julio +El Nino is Coming
Tropical Storm Bertha Forms out in the Atlantic and is Heading Straight for the Caribbean
Daily Mail UK, 1 August 2014 Tropical Storm Bertha has formed, becoming the second named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. The U.S. Hurricane Center in Miami said the tropical storm's maximum sustained winds Thursday night were near 45 mph (75 kph). The storm is centered about 275 miles (445 kilometers) southeast of Barbados and about 385 miles (620 kilometers) southeast of St. Lucia, and is moving northwest at 20 mph (31 kph). Scroll down for video http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...77_634x504.jpg The newly named Tropical Storm Bertha was forecast to move through the Lesser Antilles and pass close to Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic This season has gotten off to a slow start, in many ways. Hurricane Arthur was just a few days ahead of the normal timing for the season's first named system, though the season's first hurricane doesn't typically arrive until early August. This season was the first since 2004 without a tropical storm forming in May or June. The long-range forecast still calls for a mild season. In part, that’s based on the formation of an El Nino in the tropical Pacific. During El Nino, the warming of surface waters result in upper-air winds from the west that can snuff out potential Atlantic hurricanes. http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...79_634x496.jpg Tropical Storm Bertha has formed, becoming the second named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season As far as Bertha is concerned, a tropical storm warning has been issued for Barbados and Dominica. A tropical storm watch has been issued for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Bertha was expected to pass near Barbados on Friday afternoon and travel through the central Lesser Antilles on Friday evening. The hurricane center said little change is expected in the storm's strength over the next couple of days. The meteorological service of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Barbados and Dominica. The governments of St. Lucia and Dominican Republic have issued a Tropical Storm Warning Tropical Storm Bertha Forms off the Eastern Barbados coast http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...40_636x358.jpg |
re: Hurricane Season-Hurricanes Iselle & Julio +El Nino is Coming
WED 6 AUG 2014
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics/HU.gif Hurricane JULIO JULIO STRENGTHENS INTO THE FIFTH HURRICANE OF THE 2014 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SEASON... http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi...33W5_NL_sm.gif HURRICANE JULIO REMAINS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC BASIN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WHILE THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISELLE HAS MOVED WEST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA... IMPACTS OF WINDS 20 TO 33 KT AND 12 FT SEAS OR GREATER STILL REMAIN ACROSS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WATERS FROM 16N TO 20N W OF 139W. ADDITIONALLY... SEAS RANGING FROM 8 TO 12 FT REMAIN GENERALLY FROM 12N TO 14N W OF 136W. OTHERWISE... HURRICANE JULIO WILL FOLLOW IN WAKE OF ISELLE AND IMPACT MUCH OF THE SAME AREA TRAVERSED BY ISELLE. JULIO WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N140W AND MISS CATCHING A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA NEAR 37N120W SW TO A BASE NEAR 26N129W. MOSTLY DRY AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PROVIDING FOR GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS N OF 20N BETWEEN 110W AND 135W. EAST OF 110W... EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO NEAR 28N108W. ASIDE FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING... A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 13N103W REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AXIS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE VERY LITTLE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE OFFICIAL GRIDDED FORECAST INDICATES BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING DRIFTING WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. Thanks to Forecaster HUFFMAN Hawaii Braces for Hurricanes Iselle and Julio Hawaii Threatened By Back-to-Back Tropical Cyclones: Iselle, Then Julio: http://s.imwx.com//dru/2014/08/2265a...a1_320x180.jpg Tropical Storm Julio strengthened into a hurricane early Wednesday, chasing Hurricane Iselle toward the Hawaiian islands. The islands' emergency management agency said the rare threat of two major storms in such close proximity was "a call to prepare." Julio packed maximum sustained winds of 75 miles per hour as it became the fifth hurricane of the season. It trailed shortly behind Iselle - a strong Category 2 hurricane - less than 900 miles from the island of Hilo early Wednesday. Iselle carried maximum sustained winds of around 100 miles per hour, along with bigger gusts. While Iselle is expected to weaken this week, It is reported that it could could still reach the Hawaiian Islands as a strong tropical storm or even a hurricane late Thursday. Hawaiians raced to stock up on supplies, with stores re-stocking shelves of bottled water, baby supplies and canned meat as soon as they emptied, according to The Associated Press. |
re: Hurricanes/Tornados/Severe Weather Reports>Hurricane Blanca
ISELLE HITS LAND: FLASH FLOODING WARNINGS ISSUED
8 August 2014 STRONGEST ON RECORD Hurricanes ISELLE & JULIO are sweeping into the Hawaiian Islands, bringing heavy rain, high winds, high surf, power cuts and coastal flooding http://s.imwx.com/dru/2014/08/5bfdc6...d5_320x180.jpg AP Photo/NOAA This image provided by NOAA taken Thursday Aug. 7, 2014 at 2 a.m. EDT shows Hurricane Iselle, left and Hurricane Julio. The first bands of wind and rain from Hurricane Iselle, since downgraded to a tropical storm, swept over Hawaii's Big Island on Thursday, knocking out power for thousands, felling trees and snarling travel for tourists trying to get out before the storm hit. Iselle was expected to pass overnight across the Big Island, one of the least populated islands known for coffee fields, volcanoes and black sand beaches, then send rain and high winds to the rest of the state on Friday. http://media3.s-nbcnews.com/j/newscm...br_300x169.jpg Hawaiians were preparing for a one-two punch as Hurricane Julio, close on Iselle's heels in the Pacific, strengthened to a Category 3 storm on Thursday. Two big storms so close together is a rare occurrence in the eastern Pacific. Iselle is expected to be the first tropical storm to landfall in the Big Island since 1958. http://i.imwx.com/web/multimedia/ima...24_650x366.jpg Hurricane ISELLE | Julio landfall Hits Hawaii Storms: |
re: Hurricanes/Tornados/Severe Weather Reports>Hurricane Blanca
1 Attachment(s)
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PhOtOs-WARNING For Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico/US
Where is the Disturbance Now?
http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/truvu/...us_650x366.jpg Infrared Satellite http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/truvu/...us_650x366.jpg As shown in the infrared satellite image above, the general area of disturbed weather is a few hundred miles east of the Windward Islands. A tropical disturbance in the Atlantic Ocean nearing the Lesser Antilles is still being closely monitored for potential development into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Nearing the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, there are several possibilities that may portend an ominous future for this disturbance in the Caribbean and, possibly, parts of the U.S. Here's what we know now – and don't know – about this potential tropical threat. Convection (translation: thunderstorms) started to become better organized Wednesday evening, but is now struggling again Thursday morning. This lack of persistent convection in one location has been unable to form a distinct surface low pressure circulation, so far. The National Hurricane Center has tentatively scheduled an investigation of this disturbance by the Hurricane Hunters this afternoon to determine whether a surface low pressure circulation – which requires not only the east or northeast winds typically found in the Northern Hemisphere tropics, but also a westerly wind – is present. If both convection and a closed surface low exist, the NHC would initiate advisories on either Tropical Depression Four or Tropical Storm Cristobal, depending on the magnitude of winds measured by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft. This is the first hurdle for this system to clear. Caribbean Impact http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/truvu/...us_650x366.jpg Possible Development Area http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/truvu/...us_650x366.jpg Rain and gusty winds will spread through the Caribbean through the weekend, regardless of what the system is called. The system should spread rain and gusty winds into the Lesser Antilles Thursday, and into the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic late Thursday into Friday and Friday night. It remains uncertain at this time whether the system will remain a disturbance, will have become a tropical depression or, at most, a tropical storm. (FORECASTS: St. Thomas | St. Croix | San Juan) This weekend the system should spread rain from east to west into Haiti, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, southeast Bahamas, Jamaica, Cuba and possibly the Cayman Islands. Local flash flooding is a possibility, particularly over mountainous terrain of Puerto Rico, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica and eastern Cuba. (FORECASTS: Punta Cana, Dominican Republic | Ocho Rios | Grand Cayman) Again, it remains to be seen whether the system will be Cristobal, a depression or still a fledgling tropical disturbance, which will also, of course, factor into other potential impacts, including winds, coastal flooding and high surf. A track over more land would also limit development of the system in the Caribbean. U.S. Threat? http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/truvu/...us_650x366.jpg Steering Ingredients http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/truvu/...us_650x366.jpg To be clear, it is still too soon to determine if this system will have any impacts on the mainland U.S. A crucial player in determining if the U.S. will be impacted appears to be a southward dip in the jet stream expected to carve out over the western Atlantic Ocean. There appear to be three scenarios at this time: 1) Avoiding the U.S.: If the system tracks farther north in the Caribbean, and the jet stream dip is sufficiently strong and penetrates far enough south, the system may turn sharply north, then northeast after leaving the Bahamas. In this scenario, the U.S. coast would be missed – except for perhaps some high surf next week. 2) East Coast threat: If the system tracks north of Cuba and Hispanola, but either isn't pulled far enough north by the jet stream dip or the jet stream dip passes by into the north Atlantic, it may slowly crawl up a sizable swath of the Eastern seaboard, from Florida at least to North Carolina next week. 3) Gulf Coast threat: If the system remains relatively far south in the Caribbean Sea, it may not get tugged north by the jet stream dip, instead tracking into the Gulf of Mexico, possibly intensifying in a favorable atmosphere with warm water temperatures. In this scenario, the U.S. Gulf Coast may be threatened mid-late next week. Forecast uncertainty is typically very high several days out even in cases of a well-defined tropical cyclone, which we don't have yet. Therefore, we cannot take any of those three scenarios completely off the table yet. All interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast and East Coast should closely monitor the progress of this system. Hurricane Strikes: U.S. http://s.imwx.com/dru/2014/06/0eeae2...5f_650x366.jpg Hurricane strikes by county from 1900-2010 along the U.S. East and Gulf coasts. Check back with us at Dreamteamdownloads1 for Updates on this Potential Threat. |
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TROPICAL STORM Cristobel
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_2d0.png TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL, SUN AUG 24 2014 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Four, located near the southeastern Bahamas. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Four are issued under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Four are issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4. Thanks to Forecaster Cangialosi https://static.squarespace.com/stati...8/?format=750w https://static.squarespace.com/stati...0/?format=750w NHC forecasts newly classified TD4 to intensify into a hurricane & possibly affect portions of the SE US next week. Still uncertainty in the eventual track. Now that we have a depression the models may get a better handle on the track. https://static.squarespace.com/stati...5/?format=750w |
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High Surf from Hurricane Norbert to Hit Southern California Coast
http://www.trbimg.com/img-54086ca5/t...l-001/750/16x9 Forecasters are warning of high surf, strong rip currents and the possibility of coastal flooding along Southland beaches as Hurricane Norbert intensifies off Baja California. The surf, however, won't be nearly as awe-inspiring as it was last month when Hurricane Marie sent huge swells that pummeled Southern California's coastline with waves more than 20 feet high. Instead, the National Weather Service said the latest hurricane-generated swells may produce waves of 4 to 7 feet, particularly along south- and southwest-facing beaches. The powerful waves at Newport Beach's Wedge jetty often knocked surfers off their boards. A hazard notice for beaches will be in effect from 2 p.m. Thursday to 3 a.m. Tuesday, with swells peaking overnight Friday, the weather service said. The weather service warned that high tides of between 6 and 7 feet could produce minor flooding in low-lying coastal areas. There also will be a risk of "sneaker waves," so named for appearing out of nowhere and washing people off the shoreline. The threat is higher along steeply sloped beaches and on rocks and jetties near the water’s edge. The beaches that will be most impacted by the swells include Port Hueneme and Point Mugu in Ventura County, and Zuma Beach, the Malibu area and Long Beach through Palos Verdes in Los Angeles County. Big Surf Pounds Catalina, Causes Major Damage to Boatyard, Harbour http://www.trbimg.com/img-53ff64c1/t...n-001/750/16x9 The south and eastern shores of Catalina Island will also be "strongly affected," according to the National Weather Service. The island sustained heavy damage last month from swells generated by Hurricane Marie. The Category 5 hurricane with sustained winds of 157 mph was the strongest to hit the eastern North Pacific basin since Hurricane Celia in 2010. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi...55W5_NL_sm.gif Hurricane Norbert remains much smaller, but continued to gain steam early Thursday with sustained winds of 80 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. It's expected to pass just west of the Baja peninsula Thursday afternoon and into Friday before heading out to sea. |
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Powerful Hurricane Odile Barrels Through Mexico's Baja Tourist Haven
By Gerardo Esquerre, 15 September 2014 http://s2.twnmm.com/thumb?src=//s2.t...scale=1&crop=1 CABO SAN LUCAS, Mexico, Sept 15 (Reuters) - Hurricane Odile barreled into the Mexican beach Mecca of Baja California early on Monday, lashing luxury resorts and ripping trees from their roots as tens of thousands of tourists hunkered down in shelters. Winds of up to 120 miles per hour (195 km/h) blew away boards nailed over windows and tore signposts out of the ground, as one of the worst recorded storms to slam the region hammered the golden sand beaches of the popular resort of Los Cabos. Emergency officials feared the storm could unleash deadly flash floods as it dumped heavy rains over the southern tip of the mountainous desert peninsula. http://www.gannett-cdn.com/-mm-/5ec8...%20Weather.jpg Satellite image shows Hurricane Odile taken at 5:45 a.m. ET on Sunday.(Photo: AP) Tourists stranded in shelters or hiding in the bathtubs of their rooms posted photos on social media showing windows barricaded with furniture that were blown in by the gusts. "This is really bad. My ears are about to explode by the pressure and I have an inch of water in my kitchen/living room," said Sarah McKinney on her Twitter account. Another woman posted a video on the Web showing workmen erecting sheets of chipboard and boarded-up windows shaking. Dozens of people sat huddled with pillows in the middle of a large room. "We've moved downstairs. These windows didn't seem to hold hurricane #Odile. I'm sweating like hell. Scary sound of howling wind," Alba Mora Roca said on her Twitter feed. "Sounds of glass breaking. I'm in a room with a nice couple of African American pastors from Chicago. No windows. Thanks God there's power!" Reuters was not immediately able to contact either woman. "NO WORDS FOR THIS" At least 26,000 foreign tourists and 4,000 Mexicans were in the region, according to Mexican officials, while emergency workers and military personal evacuated thousands of people from areas at risk of flooding. Odile lost some strength as it neared Baja on Sunday evening and the center of the storm was expected to move near or over the peninsula through Tuesday as it starts to weaken, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said. Some storm experts said it was the strongest hurricane to hit the southern tip of the peninsula since the advent of satellite data. "We haven't seen one get so close and with the possibility of impact, and of such a nature," said Wenceslao Petit, head of emergency services in Los Cabos. "There aren't words for this." Ahead of the storm's approach, people in Cabo San Lucas had rushed to board up windows, clear beach furniture and remove fishing boats and yachts from the water into dry docks. "If it doesn't lose intensity, this is going to do some damage," said Rosalio Salas, 59, who works at Picante sport fishing charters in Cabo San Lucas. While other beaches in Mexico are packed with tourists during the long weekend to Tuesday's Independence Day holiday, the resorts of Los Cabos are mostly visited by Americans and are in their low season. Luis Puente, the head of Mexico's civil protection agency, told a news conference that 164 shelters had been readied with a capacity for 30,000 people. There are no major oil installations in the area. (Reporting by Michael O'Boyle and Tomas Sarmiento; Editing by Simon Gardner and Gareth Jones) |
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Typhoon Phanfone Threatens Japan, Tokyo This Weekend
3 October 2014 http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/truvu/...us_650x366.jpg http://i.imwx.com//images/maps/truvu...us_650x366.jpg Typhoon Phanfone may continue to be in a favorable environment of relatively low wind shear and high sea-surface temperatures through at least early Saturday. Therefore, a bit of additional strengthening cannot be ruled out. Phanphone has begun its anticipated turn toward the north-northwest. However, there are still some key uncertainties about Phanfone's track, which will ultimately determine impacts for millions. Phanfone has reached the western edge of a bubble of high pressure aloft -- and tropical cyclones often turn northward in those situations before eventually being forced northeastward by the prevailing upper-level westerlies, usually becoming post-tropical systems in the process. The question remains exactly how sharp a turn Phanfone makes, and, therefore, what the exact track of the core circulation is. Given Phanfone's large wind field and the latest forecast trends, it appears Phanfone won't curve sharply enough to avoid at least some impacts from high winds over at least parts of central and eastern Honshu, and possibly western Honshu, Kyushu, Shikoku and the northern Ryuku Islands. Uncertainty remains, however, regarding Phanfone's intensity once it tracks near the Japanese mainland. Increased wind shear will induce weakening, but the longer the typhoon keeps its current intensity, the stronger it may still be once it tracks over Japan. As a result, damaging winds may rake (downed trees, power outages, some structural damage) at least part of those areas this weekend, along with the threat of storm surge flooding in surge-prone areas. These areas (the Kansai, Chubu and Kanto regions) including Kyoto, Kobe, Osaka, Nagoya and Tokyo, have a combined population of 85 million. Here is a general timeline of when we expect peak winds (all times local; Japan is 14 hours ahead of U.S. EDT): - Northern Ryuku Islands: Sat. evening through Sun. morning - Kyushu, Shikoku, western Honshu: Sun. morning through late Sun. night or early Mon. morning - Central/eastern Honshu (Osaka, Nagoya, Tokyo): Later Sunday into Monday Rainfall Threat http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/truvu/...us_650x366.jpg European Model Forecast http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/truvu/...us_650x366.jpg Regardless of the exact path of Phanfone, there's increasing concern about the threat of heavy rainfall from this storm. The map above shows a computer model forecast for rainfall through Tuesday. The map gives a general idea of where heavy rainfall may fall, but it's important to bear in mind that the official track forecast may differ from the forecast from any individual computer forecast model. Additionally, Japan's steep terrain often leads to large variations in local rainfall that often aren't captured by the global models, so the above map is only a general idea of where the heaviest rain may fall. Some of the areas in Phanfone's path saw historic rainfall from the one-two punch of Tropical Storm Nakri and Typhoon Halong in August. The city of Kochi had over 61 inches of rain in August, its wettest month in records dating back to 1886. The rural hamlet of Shigeto in the mountains of Kochi Prefecture picked up 94.41 inches of rain, crushing its previous all-time record for any calendar month by nearly 40 inches. Track History Phanfone was first declared a tropical depression early on September 29, local time, several hundred miles to the east of Guam, then tracked northwestward through the northern Mariana Islands, bringing locally heavy rain, gusty winds and high surf. Phanfone strengthened from a Category 1 equivalent typhoon (75 mph estimated max winds) early on the evening of October 1, local time (Japan is 13 hours ahead of U.S. EDT) to a Category 4 equivalent typhoon (130 mph estimated max winds) just 24 hours later, a jump of 55 mph (or 50 knots) in 24 hours. "Phanfone had the dreaded pinhole eye rarely seen in tropical cyclones," said The Weather Channel hurricane specialist. "The eye was so small even our best microwave satellites had trouble seeing it." |
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Cyclone Hudhud Hammers India's Eastern Seaboard, Three Dead
By Jatindra Dash, 12 October 2014 VISAKHAPATNAM, India, Oct 12 (Reuters) Cyclone Hudhud blasted India's eastern seaboard on Sunday with gusts of up to 195 kilometres an hour (over 120 mph), uprooting trees, damaging buildings and killing at least three people despite a major evacuation effort. The port city of Visakhapatnam, home to two million people and a major naval base, was hammered as the cyclone made landfall, unleashing the huge destructive force it had sucked up from the warm waters of the Bay of Bengal. Upended trees and wreckage were strewn across Visakhapatnam, known to locals as Vizag. Most people heeded warnings to take refuge, but three who ventured out were killed. "The Visakhapatnam situation is very serious," K. Hymavathi, the special commissioner for disaster management for Andhra Pradesh state, told Reuters by telephone. "Telecommunications are disrupted - even our control room is not able to operate properly. People staying in their apartments are so afraid that they are panicking and calling us," she said. The low toll reported so far followed an operation to evacuate more than 150,000 people on Saturday to minimise the risk to life from Hudhud - similar in size and power to cyclone Phailin that struck the area exactly a year ago. After a lull as the eye of the storm passed over the city, winds regained their strength. Forecasters warned Hudhud would blow with full force for several hours more, before wind speeds halve by evening."Reverse windflow will be experienced by the city, which will again have a very great damage potential," L.S. Rathore, director-general of the state India Meteorological Department (IMD), told reporters in New Delhi. The IMD forecast a storm surge of 1-2 metres above high tide that could result in flooding of low-lying coastal areas around Visakhapatnam, Vijayanagaram and Srikakulam. A Reuters reporter staying in Vizag said earlier that his hotel had broken windows while the ground floor was flooded by horizontal rain. Hotel staff abandoned efforts to keep the water out when they were blown back several metres by the wind. http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...ch_the_sea.jpg Preparation: Fisherwomen watch the waves in their village on the outskirts of Gopalpurin Orissa's Ganjam district before leaving for a relief camp http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...n_negotiat.jpg Building storm: Fishermen manoeuvre their skiff through rough waters in Visakhapatnam http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...erwomen_pr.jpg Praying for safety: A group of women prays for safety at a beach in Srikakulam as Hudhud closes in http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...RAPHIC_jpg.jpg http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...d_India_GR.jpg TERRIFYING NOISE The winds were deafening, the reporter said, sounding like explosions going off. "I never imagined that a cyclone could be so dangerous and devastating," said a businessman staying in the hotel. "The noise it is making would terrify anyone." Vizag port suspended operations on Saturday night, with its head saying that 17 ships which had been in the harbour were moving offshore where they would be less at risk from high seas. The city airport was closed and train services suspended. The IMD rated Hudhud as a very severe cyclonic storm that could pack gusts of 195 km/h and dump more than 24.5 cm (10 inches) of rain. The cyclone was strong enough to have a "high humanitarian impact" on nearly 11 million people, the Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS), run by the United Nations and the European Commission, said. The evacuation effort was comparable to one preceding Cyclone Phailin, credited with minimising fatalities to 53. When a huge storm hit the same area 15 years ago, 10,000 people died. Hudhud was likely to batter a 200-300 km stretch of coastline before losing force inland, forecasters said. "The landfall process could take up to 10 or 12 hours," said Eric Holthaus, a meteorologist at U.S. online magazine Slate who has been tracking Hudhud. "The worst-case scenario would be if Hudhud's eye makes landfall just south of the city, which would direct the full brunt of the eyewall and maximum storm surge towards Vizag," he told the Thomson Reuters Foundation. According to the IMD, peak wind speeds will drop to 60 km/h by Monday afternoon. Hudhud is expected to continue to dump heavy rains further inland and, eventually, snow when it reaches the Himalayan mountains. LIVE Updates: Declare Hudhud as National Calamity, Chandrababu Naidu tells PM Modi IndiaToday, New Delhi, 12 October, 2014 http://media2.intoday.in/indiatoday/...1214053411.jpg A man, bottom jumps into the water to rescue a woman, center, who fell due to strong tidal waves on the Bay of Bengal coast at Gopalpur, Orissa, about 285 kilometers (178 miles) north east of Visakhapatnam, India on Sunday, Oct. 12, 2014. Photo: AP Three persons were killed in separate rain-related incidents in Visakhapatnam and Srikakulam districts of coastal Andhra Pradesh on Sunday as the very severe cyclonic storm Hudhud triggered heavy downpour in the region. Lakhs of people are being evacuated from towns and villages through which the cyclone will pass amid massive rain and wind. The cyclone is similar to last year's Phailin that crossed the Odisha coast leaving behind a trail of destruction. Watch video: Impact of cyclone Hudhud Here are the latest updates on the developing story: 05:45 pm: Cyclone Hudhud loses speed; winds now blowing at 120-130 kmph: IMD. 05:43 pm: Prime Minister promised Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu all possible assistance as Cyclone Hudhud made landfall leaving five persons dead in the state and neighbouring Odisha. The Prime Minister, who had on Saturday held an emergency high-level meeting to review preparedness for the cyclone, spoke to Naidu and discussed relief and rescue measures. http://media2.intoday.in/indiatoday/...1214025845.jpg Normal life was thrown completely out of gear as winds with a speed of 170 to 180 kmph battered Visakhapatnam. 5.15 pm: Cyclone hits train movement in Andhra, Odisha: Railways cancelled or diverted many trains in north coastal Andhra and adjoining Odisha in view of severe cyclone Hudhud which hit the coast near Visakhapatnam. 04:45 pm: Andhra CM Chandrababu Naidu wants PM Modi to declare Hudhud as a national calamity. 03:30 pm: Cyclone Hudhud: Five persons die in Andhra Pradesh and neighbouring Odisha. 02:40 pm: Normal life was thrown completely out of gear as winds with a speed of 170 to 180 kmph battered Visakhapatnam, Srikakulam and Vizianagaram districts on Sunday. 02:35 pm: Cyclone intensity to prevail for 6 hours after landfall: IMD. 02:25 pm: Casualty in cyclone Hudhud rises to two in Odisha with a fresh death reported from Puri on Sunday. See pics: Cyclone Hudhud: High tides slam Vizag, 2 killed 02:00 pm: Gusty winds, uprooted trees, torn roofs of hutments and sheds and snapped electric cables bore testimony to the impact of severe cyclonic storm Hudhud which hit Andhra Pradesh's coastal districts on Sunday. http://media2.intoday.in/indiatoday/...1214114946.jpg Heavy rains coupled with high-speed wind lashed several parts of Andhra Pradesh 01:20 pm: Cyclone Hudhud: NDRF rushes additional teams to Vishakhapatnam, total 13 teams in the district now. 12:40 pm: Cyclone wind speed 170-180 kmph gusting up to 195 kmph in Andhra Pradesh coast, wind speed will come down by 50 per cent in 6 hours: IMD Chief Laxman Singh Rathore. WATCH VIDEO: Cyclone Hudhud: Fresh footage of rains and storm 12:35 pm: Cyclone Hudhud: PMO monitoring situation on an hourly basis, says IMD chief. Cyclone Hudhud: 2 killed in coastal Andhra 12:30 pm: Time, place and speed of Hudhud cycle as per forecast: IMD chief. 12:10 pm: Precaution becomes the prime concern for people of the seaside villages of Kendrapara and Jagatsinghpur districts in Odisha as they do not want to take chances for the incoming cyclone Hudhud. http://media2.intoday.in/indiatoday/...1214112024.jpg The very severe cyclonic storm is likely to make a landfall near Visakhapatnam. 11:55 am: Andhra PardeshChief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu is reviewing the situation arising out of the cyclone from the Andhra Pradesh Secretariat. Cyclone Hudhud: Maximum wind speed touches 205 kmph . |
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HURRICANE GONZALO
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM AST TUE 14 OCT 2014 Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and the San Juan Doppler weather radar indicate that the earlier intensification process has abated, which is apparently due to some shear-induced disruption of the eye. Maximum 700 mb flight-level winds observed thus far are 112 kt and maximum SFMR winds through most of the morning have been around 93 kt. The central pressure has also leveled off during the past few hours at around 973 mb. A blend of the flight-level surface-wind conversion and SFMR winds support maintaining an intensity of 95 kt. Gonzalo continues to move northwestward with a motion of 315/11 kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. The NHC model guidance is in excellent agreement on the hurricane continuing to move northwestward around the southwestern for periphery of a deep-layer ridge the during the next 36 hours. After that, the western portion of the ridge is expected to weaken as a strong mid-latitude trough and associated cold front currently located over the southeastern U.S. moves eastward across the Bahamas by 48 hours. The increasing southwesterly flow ahead of those systems should gradually accelerate Gonzalo toward the northeast, with the cyclone potentially threatening Bermuda in about three days' time. Gonzalo is expected to merge with the strong cold front or become extratropical by 120 hours. The new track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the GFEX and TVCA consensus models. Recent radar and satellite data indicate that the eye of Gonzalo has been clearing out and gradually becoming better defined with a diameter of about 20 nmi. Once the eyewall stabilizes again, intensification will likely resume, and in fact the reconnaissance aircraft a few moments ago observed an SFMR wind of 99 kt that suggests this intensification is beginning. Buoy data indicate that water temperatures are slightly cooler than what the SHIPS model is indicating, probably due to cold upwelling created by the wake of former Hurricane Fay, but they are still sufficiently warm enough to support a category 4 hurricane. The best vertical shear conditions and upper-level outflow regime are expected to occur on Wednesday and into Thursday morning - that is when Gonzalo is expected to strengthen into a category 4 hurricane. Afterwards, eyewall cycles and possible cold upwelling beneath the hurricane are likely to cause some fluctuations in the intensity. By 72 hours, increasing southwesterly wind shear ahead of the aforementioned deep trough and strong cold front is expected to induce weakening. By 120 hours, Gonzalo should be over cold waters of the North Atlantic and experiencing vertical shear of more than 50 kt, which should result in the cyclone becoming a extratropical low. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is above all of the available intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 20.3N 65.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 21.7N 66.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 23.3N 67.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 24.6N 68.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 26.1N 68.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 30.4N 66.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 37.4N 62.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 46.8N 53.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP Thanks to Forecaster Stewart |
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Hurricane Gonzalo Scores Bull's Eye Hit on Bermuda- 80% of People Have No Power
By AP, 18 October 2014 HAMILTON, Bermuda (AP) — Hurricane Gonzalo crushed trees, flattened power lines and damaged Bermuda's main hospital during an hours-long battering — the second time the tiny British territory has been slammed by a powerful storm in less than a week. The storm's center crossed over Bermuda during Friday night and its winds and heavy surf whipped at the island early Saturday before Gonzalo quickly moved northward over the Atlantic on a track that could take it just off the shore of Newfoundland in Canada. Bermuda Gov. George Fergusson tweeted that police have reported no deaths or serious injuries and that damage has been extensive but not catastrophic http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...36_634x420.jpg This image provided by NASA shows Hurricane Gonzalo taken from the International Space Station by European Space Agency astronaut Alexander Gerst as it moves toward Bermuda on Thursday, Oct. 16, 2014. Hurricane Gonzalo roared toward Bermuda as a powerful Category 3 storm on Friday. (AP Photo/Alexander Gerst/ESA/NASA) Forecasters warned of the danger of a storm surge of 10 feet (3 meters) that could cause widespread flooding, but officials had not yet made a full assessment of damage. Nearly all of the 36,000 homes connected to Bermuda's sole power provider were believed to be without electricity after the hurricane roared through, just days after Tropical Storm Fay damaged homes and also knocked down trees and power lines. "To be struck twice by two different cyclones is unusual, to say the least," said Max Mayfield, a former director of the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami. Police Commissioner Michael DeSilva said almost all roads in Bermuda were impassible as crews began to clear debris and fallen trees and power lines. He urged people to stay at home and said on the island's Emergency Broadcast Station that motorists would be turned back. "Unless it's a life or death emergency — checking on your boat is not an emergency — we won't let you pass," he said. Gonzalo approached Bermuda as a Category 3 storm then weakened to Category 2 strength just before coming ashore with sustained winds of 110 mph (175 kph). Part of the roof at Bermuda's main hospital was damaged and there was water damage in the new intensive care unit, police spokesman Dwayne Caines reported. Flooding was the main concern on Bermuda, which has one of the highest per-capita incomes in the world and is known for strict building codes meant to ensure homes can withstand sustained winds of at least 110 mph (177 kph). "Water damage, especially from the wave action, will take the biggest toll," Mayfield said, noting that seas had risen between 30 and 40 feet (9 and 12 meters). The last major hurricane to strike Bermuda was Fabian in September 2003. That Category 3 storm killed four people and caused more than $100 million in damage as it tore off roofs, flooded golf courses and damaged the causeway linking the airport to most of Bermuda, which is about 850 miles (1,400 kilometers) off the U.S. East Coast. Marlie Powell, the owner of Kingston House Bed & Breakfast, said in a phone interview that Gonzalo hit as she was still recovering from Tropical Storm Fay, which toppled two large trees on her property. "We only had very few days to clean and get the trees out of our house," she said. "There's a lot of loose debris around the island already, which is not good." A 436-foot (133-meter) frigate of Britain's Royal Navy with a crew of some 180 sailors was expected to arrive Sunday in Bermuda to help with post-storm recovery efforts. The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Gonzalo weakened as it moved away from Bermuda on a track that would take it past Newfoundland and then across the Atlantic to Britain and Ireland. A tropical storm watch was issued for parts of southeastern Newfoundland. Early Saturday, Gonzalo was located 270 miles (435 kilometers) north-northeast of Bermuda with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph (160 kph) as it traveled north-northeast at 22 mph (35 kph). Gonzalo swept by the eastern Caribbean earlier this week, claiming one life in the Dutch territory of St. Maarten. The hurricane center said the storm was generating large swells that could cause dangerous surf on portions of the U.S. southeast coast and those conditions would spread northward along the East Coast during Saturday. In the Pacific, Hurricane Ana was carving a path south of Hawaii early Saturday, producing high waves, strong winds and heavy rains that prompted a flood advisory. The center of the storm was about 155 miles southwest of the Big Island as it passed late Friday night and about 245 miles from Honolulu, the National Weather Service said. There was little chance for hurricane conditions on the islands, but a tropical storm watch remained in effect throughout the archipelago and winds were expected to reach nearly 40 mph, forecasters said. Shortly before midnight, it had maximum sustained winds of 85 mph (135 kph). ___ Danica Coto reported from San Juan, Puerto Rico. http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...53_634x420.jpg This NOAA satellite image taken Saturday, Oct. 18, 2014 at 1:45 a.m. EDT shows Hurricane Gonzalo moving away from Bermuda as a front marked by clouds across Newfoundland guides the hurricane north-northeastward. Widespread clouds are covering the Northeast US, Great Lakes, Appalachians, and Ohio Valley as a storm with colder air, rain showers and even some spotty snow showers pushes eastward across the eastern Great Lakes and Appalachians. (AP PHOTO/WEATHER UNDERGROUND) http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...96_634x467.jpg Chris Fogarty, a senior meteorologist at the Canadian Hurricane Centre, provides an update on Hurricane Gonzalo in Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, Friday, Oct. 17, 2014. Forecasters said there is a possibility of Gonzalo making landfall in the southeastern tip of Newfoundland and Labrador on Sunday. Hurricane Gonzalo roared toward Bermuda as a powerful Category 3 storm on Friday and the head of the tiny British territory urged people to seek high ground due to a potential storm surge of 10 feet. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Andrew Vaughan) http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...13_634x474.jpg Meteorologists work at the Canadian Hurricane Centre, tracking Hurricane Gonzalo, in Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, Friday, Oct. 17, 2014. Forecasters said there is a possibility of Gonzalo making landfall in the southeastern tip of Newfoundland and Labrador on Sunday. Hurricane Gonzalo roared toward Bermuda as a powerful Category 3 storm on Friday and the head of the tiny British territory urged people to seek high ground due to a potential storm surge of 10 feet. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Andrew Vaughan) |
re: Hurricanes/Tornados/Severe Weather Reports>Hurricane Blanca
India, Pakistan to Escape Worst of Tropical Cyclone Nilofar
October 31, 2014 Tropical Cyclone Nilofar will be far from the dangerous state it reached earlier this week when it impacts India and Pakistan; however, localized downpours are still a threat. Nilofar reached its peak intensity on Tuesday with maximum sustained winds of nearly 215 kph (135 mph), making Nilofar a very severe cyclonic storm and the equivalent of a minimal Category 4 hurricane in the eastern Pacific or Atlantic basins. Nilofar is now losing its battle with disruptive wind shear (strong winds above the surface), which has caused the cyclone to weaken to the equivalent of a tropical storm. Nilofar will continue to weaken through Friday. The cyclone will eventually become very disorganized with its showers and thunderstorms getting drawn away from its center and pulled northeastward into southeast Pakistan and India's northern Gujarat state while the storm remains several hundred miles away. http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc200...10149_hd29.jpg Shower and thunderstorm activity will stream across far southeastern Pakistan, including Karachi and Hyderabad, and India's northern Gujarat state through Friday. Widespread life-threatening flooding rain is not anticipated. However, localized downpours can still occur and cause isolated flash flooding. The greatest opportunity for the downpours will come if Nilofar's center manages to follow the showers and thunderstorms into Pakistan and India; however, this appears unlikely given the amount of shear that Nilofar is currently experiencing. Even if the center of Nilofar were to reach the coastline, these areas will escape any widespread damaging winds as the cyclone would weaken to a tropical depression before moving inland. A more likely scenario is that Nilofar's center will get left behind in the northeastern Arabian Sea. In this scenario, Nilofar's center will become nothing more than a swirl of clouds with a few showers and wind less than 40 kph (25 mph) by Sunday. Despite Nilofar rapidly weakening, rough seas will continue to create dangerous conditions for boaters in the northern Arabian Sea through Friday. Hazards for swimmers will also exist along the coasts of Oman, eastern Iran, Pakistan and northwestern India. The rough seas danger will diminish this weekend as whatever is left of Nilofar dissipates over the Arabian Sea or near the coast of Northwest India. Meteorologist Eric Leister contributed to this story. |
re: Hurricanes/Tornados/Severe Weather Reports>Hurricane Blanca
Intense Bering Sea Storm Expected: Hurricane Force Wind Warnings Issued Around Alaska's Aleutian Islands
-Which will Affect Parts of Canada and the U.S. ...As It Turns Extra-Tropical, Typhoon Nuri Could Challenge All-Time Record 7 November 2014 http://media.npr.org/assets/img/2014...70-s40-c85.jpg NASA's Aqua satellite captured this image of Super Typhoon Nuri after it developed an eye on Nov. 3. Typhoon Nuri has already had a remarkable run on this Earth. Another Superstorm Sandy? Are They Better Prepared? While the former Super Typhoon Nuri sent meteorological jaws dropping earlier this week, its remnant may have another impressive chapter in store in the Bering Sea and Alaska's Aleutian Islands. http://s.imwx.com/dru/2014/11/10b235...e8_650x366.jpg Infrared satellite image of Typhoon Nuri and the polar jet stream disturbance on Nov. 5, 2014 poised to combine to produce a Bering Sea storm late in the week. As of late Thursday evening U.S. time, Nuri was undergoing a tropical transition and was centered over 800 miles northeast of Tokyo. Nuri is expected to join up with the polar jet stream and a very strong disturbance in the mid-latitude belt of westerly winds, as highlighted above. http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/truvu/...us_650x366.jpg Tracking Former Typhoon Nuri http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/truvu/...us_650x366.jpg Forecasts from both the European (ECMWF) and American (GFS) computer models continue to predict an extremely powerful non-tropical storm to develop from this merger over the Bering Sea, near the western Aleutian Islands of Alaska Friday into Saturday. http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/truvu/...us_650x366.jpg Model Forecast: Bering Sea Superstorm http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/truvu/...us_650x366.jpg In fact, both models have repeatedly suggested the pressure of that post-tropical storm could go as low as 915 to 925 millibars late Friday into Saturday -- almost as low as its estimated pressure was as a super typhoon. If that happens, it would be the strongest low-pressure system ever observed in or near Alaska since October 25, 1977, when a 925 millibar pressure reading was recorded at Dutch Harbor, Alaska. This system may also potentially be one of the lowest sea-level barometric pressures ever observed on Earth outside of tropical cyclones and tornadoes. For reference, the lowest central pressure of Hurricane Andrew (1992) was 922 millibars. Despite the potential of a similar pressure at its peak, wind speeds in extratropical cyclones such as the upcoming storm are much lower than hurricanes, because the pressure gradient is spread out over a much larger area than in a hurricane. Potential Impacts The map below shows the European model wind speed forecast for Friday night, with the darkest red colors showing the strongest wind speeds in the western Aleutians and east of Russia's Kamchatka Peninsula. http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/truvu/...us_650x366.jpg Model Wind Forecast: Bering Sea Superstorm http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/truvu/...us_650x366.jpg That model is forecasting a large swath of very strong sustained winds, possibly hurricane-force, over the western Aleutian Islands of Alaska. The National Weather Service in Anchorage has issued a hurricane force wind warning for the waters surrounding the far western Aleutians as well as parts of the southwestern Bering Sea. Sustained winds could reach 80 mph in those areas. Meanwhile, a high wind warning has been issued for the far western Aleutians themselves Friday into Saturday morning. In addition to the strong sustained winds pictured on the map above, there could be localized gusts of 80 to 90 mph, especially where rugged terrain enhances the winds. The strongest winds will be southerly to southwesterly in origin. Fortunately, the storm is forecast to lose some of that ferocity later in the weekend, but may remain somewhat stalled over the Bering Sea into Sunday or Monday. These strong winds, coupled with the potential long duration of this storm, will whip up giant waves over parts of the Bering Sea and north Pacific Ocean. http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/truvu/...us_650x366.jpg Wave Height Forecast: Bering Sea Superstorm http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/truvu/...us_650x366.jpg Wave heights will likely top 45 feet near the western Aleutian Islands Friday night into Saturday, making for very dangerous conditions for all marine vessels not protected. Swells from 22 to 30 feet may reach the eastern Aleutians and Pribilof Islands, including St. Paul, Alaska, Saturday into Sunday. St. Paul (population: 453) is notorious for intense storms, with a harbor that is susceptible to southwest winds, according to the Alaska Dispatch News. As these large swells finally reach the coast of western Alaska, some minor coastal flooding and erosion is possible Sunday into Monday. Areas farther east, including the city of Anchorage will see a band of rain and snow with the cold front Sunday, along with some occasional wind gusts over 40 mph particularly on the southern coast of the Kenai Peninsula, the mouth of Prince William Sound, and Kodiak Island. November 2011 Deja Vu? http://s.imwx.com/dru/2014/11/e59db4...c0_320x180.jpg MODIS visible satellite image of the Nov. 8, 2011 Bering Sea Superstorm taken at 2:45 p.m., local time. (Jesse Allen - NASA Earth Observatory) Coincidentally, this upcoming storm is forecast to develop three years to the calendar day after a 2011 storm hammered parts of western Alaska with high winds and coastal flooding. At least 37 Alaskan communities reported at least some form of damage, including storm surge flooding, blown-out windows, roof damage, and debris on roads. Winds gusted to 84 mph in Wales, Alaska. A storm surge of 10 feet, along with whiteout conditions, hammered Nome, the largest city in northwest Alaska, overtopping a sea wall and covering a sea-front road with large rocks. As a result, Nome missed its final fuel delivery for the winter. Two months later a Russian tanker, escorted through hundreds of miles of sea ice by a U.S. Coast Guard icebreaker, delivered the 1.3 million gallons of fuel needed to get the town through spring. Kivalina, a village of 460 residents lying on a narrow spit of land facing the Chukchi Sea, experienced a 5.5 foot storm surge. Most of the town's residents were evacuated to a local school. No fatalities or injuries were directly related to the storm, a tribute to early warning and good emergency preparedness in this sparsely populated area. So, what are the potential differences in this upcoming case, compared to the 2011 storm? http://s.imwx.com/dru/2014/11/a433ee...f7_320x180.jpg Pacific surface analysis on Nov. 8, 2011 at 7:10 p.m. PST. Center of 2011 Bering Sea Superstorm depicted by blue arrow, analyzed at 943 millibars. (NOAA/OPC) - Peak intensity farther west: The central pressure of the 2011 storm dipped to 943 millibars. Of course, it's the gradient in pressure that drives winds. At the same time, a 1031 millibar surface high was centered over Alaska's northeast interior. This intense pressure gradient aligned over the west coast of Alaska drove the high winds. In this case, the central pressure may be lower (stronger) than 2011, but the storm's position at peak strength, and peak pressure gradient will be farther west in 2011, thus the strongest winds appear most likely over the western and central Bering Sea and western Aleutians, rather than the west coast of Alaska. - This storm will linger longer: The 2011 storm moved northeast, then north from west of the Aleutian Islands, to the Bering Sea, to the Chukchi Sea in the span of a couple of days. While surge flooding was significant, this lack of duration kept the flooding from being worse. The current storm may linger in the Bering Sea, though in a weakened state from its late Friday/Saturday peak, into Monday. Wave heights over the southern and western Bering Sea and adjacent north Pacific Ocean from late Friday into Saturday may exceed those seen in the 2011 storm, however, due not only to the more intense storm, but also the longer duration of high winds. While the strongest winds may remain well to the west in this case, the duration of southerly winds and the subsequent swells generated may still lead to at least some coastal flooding along the west coast of Alaska. Muir Glacier and Inlet (1895) http://s.imwx.com/dru/2013/11/f68943...90_650x366.jpg In the photo above, the west shoreline of Muir Inlet in Alaska's Glacier Bay National Park & Preserve is shown as it appeared in 1895. Notice the lack of vegetation on the slopes of the mountains, and the glacier that stands more than 300 feet high. See the glacier as it looked in 2005 on the next page. (USGS/Bruce Molnia) The Capital Weather Gang explains that for 24 hours over the weekend, Nuri was a category 5 monster storm with maximum sustained winds of 180 mph, tying with Typhoon Vongfong as the strongest cyclone of the season. But Nuri may actually make a name for itself after it loses its tropical characteristics when it moves north into the Bering Sea. When it gets there, all the warm, tropical air it's pushing around will crash into a mountain of cold air and cause a violent explosion of meteorological energy that could propel this storm into history. The National Weather Service in Anchorage says that during that so-called "bombogenesis" the storm's central pressure — an important measure of intensity — will deepen from 970 MB late Thursday to between 918 to 922 MB late Friday. "That would create a significant event, as the current record lowest pressure observed in the Bering Sea is 925 MB, measured at Dutch Harbor on October 25, 1977," the NWS writes in its advisory. What's more, a central pressure that low threatens the 913 MB all-time record for an extra-tropical storm set in the North Atlantic in 1993. Quote:
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re: Hurricanes/Tornados/Severe Weather Reports>Hurricane Blanca
'Bering Bomb' Superstorm Sends Temperatures Plunging: Explosive Storm -More Powerful than Hurricane Sandy-Hits US
First Snow Due Across Huge Swathes of U.S. as Massive Winter Storm over Alaska Pushes Cold Air South
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...41_964x400.jpg Flurries are expected in Maine, Vermont, New York state and parts of Pennsylvania, with snowfall reaching as far south as Virginia by the end of the week, accompanied by freezing temperatures. The weather system is in part a consequence of Typhoon Nuri (pictured), which sucked polar air from Alaska and is contributing to an onrush of wintry weather in the contiguous United States. The weather map to the top-right shows the difference between normal November temperatures and those predicted next week, with some parts of the country 20 degrees colder than normal. Temperatures are set to plummet in the coming days, with temperatures below freezing across much of the north-eastern U.S. by Thursday, according to the National Weather Service. http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...OVEMBER_5_.JPG Frigid storm: The remnants of Typhoon Nuri, which struck Alaska over the past few days, is contribtuing to a cold weather system which will chill the United States in the week to come http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...s_7_vortex.jpg Snow today: The above map shows snowfall predictions (in blue) for Sunday November 9 across the U.S., with storms set to hit Wyoming, and the Dakotas in the center of the country, with storms in Wisconsin, northern Michigan, and scattered snowfall in upstate New York, Vermont, Maine, New Hampshire and even parts of Pennsylvania http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...s_8_vortex.jpg Expanding: A map for tomorrow shows more widespread snow reaching into Wyoming, Idaho, and Minnesota, while persisting in New York, Michigan and parts of New Hampshire http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...s_9_vortex.jpg Eastern snow: By Thursday morning, flurries will have hit much of New York, Pennsylvania, all of Michigan, parts of Ohio - and even Virginia, as temperatures plummet By this time, mountainous parts of the central plains, including Dakota, Montana and Wyoming, will be hit with daytime lows of just 20 degrees. In New England, the cold weather has meant a rush of activity in the region's ski trails, with the Killington resort wrapping up its first week of skiing. The onrush of wintry weather follows Typhoon Nuri which swirled over Alaska in the past few days, forcing a remote military installation to batten down the hatches and endure 70mph winds. http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...sort_in_VT.jpg Snow times: In Vermont, the Killington ski resort (pictured) is already open. Most of the snow is artificial, but the resort has experienced some natural fall, and the cold weather could bring more http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...sort_in_VT.jpg Chill: Snow on the ground could be much more widespread after the frigid week to come. Pictured is another part of Killington, Vermont The tempest fueled by the remnants of Typhoon Nuri was will play a role in generating a high-pressure system that will allow frigid air to blanket the central plains and nose into other states. It became a meteorological 'bomb' after pressure in the storm system dropped 24 millibars in a single day, throwing up huge waves over the Bering Sea between Alaska and Russia. The system was centered 220 miles northwest of Adak in the Aleutian chain, David Kochevar, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, said early Sunday. 'It's slowly dissipating over the Bering Sea,' he said.Its strongest winds had diminished considerably and were recorded at just 45 mph in Adak and Shemya Island, Kochevar said. http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...s_still_ea.jpg See the difference: The above map shows the difference between average annual temperatures and predictions for next week - with some area almost 20 degrees colder than usual for mid-November The storm peaked Friday with sustained winds of 70 mph and gusts up to 96 mph on Shemya, forecasters said. The weakened storm was only expected to bring gale-force winds to the Alaska mainland's southwestern coast, typical for this time of year, said NWS meteorologist Shaun Baines. 'The worst conditions were out where there's no people,' he said Saturday. On Shemya Island, 120 civilian contractors staff an early warning radar installation for the U.S. military.Eareckson Air Station on the island 1,500 miles southwest Anchorage suffered minor facility damage, Alaskan Command public affairs officer Tommie Baker said. The corners of a roof were bent back and some dumpsters moved around, but no roof was torn off and the dumpsters didn't slam into any vehicles or buildings, Baker said. Workers locked themselves inside to wait out the storm. They had yet to conduct a full assessment of damage around the entire island, but expect no major damage as they are accustomed to far worse conditions. The community averages six weather-related lockdowns a year.The storm surpassed the intensity of 2012's Superstorm Sandy as measured by pressure, but a lack of measuring stations in the remote region means meteorologists didn't have much more data. Sandy caused at least 182 deaths and $65 billion in damage on the East Coast. Nuri, in contrast, hit a sparsely populated region with just a few small communities where people are accustomed to severe weather. The high-pressure system Nuri will help create is expected to send temperatures plunging across a wide swathe of the lower 48 states. High temperatures were forecast to be below freezing on Tuesday across much of Wyoming to Minnesota and parts of Iowa, said Bruce Sullivan of the National Weather Service's prediction center. The high in Great Falls, Montana, is expected to be 7 degrees, Sullivan said. By Wednesday, high temperatures will struggle to get out of the low 30s in the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles, he said.'Once it gets its momentum going, it's going to keep going south,' Sullivan said. |
re: Hurricanes/Tornados/Severe Weather Reports>TS. ERIKA
Hurricane Blanca Nears Mexico's Baja California Peninsula
Daily Mail UK, 7 June 2015 CABO SAN LUCAS, Mexico (AP) — A powerful Hurricane Blanca roared toward Mexico's Baja California Peninsula on Sunday, as authorities put thousands of troops on alert and businesses boarded over windows ahead of its arrival. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi...gif/180036.gif The unpredictable storm strengthened rapidly to a Category 4 storm on Saturday before weakening to Category 3, and forecasters said it should weaken to a Category 1 hurricane on Sunday as it nears Mexico's coast. It is expected to make landfall on Baja California's southwestern coastline Monday as a tropical storm. But the director of Mexico's National Water Commission, Roberto Ramirez, said he was concerned about Blanca's "erratic" behavior and warned residents along the coast to be prepared for intense rains. http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/...11_634x411.jpg A worker hauls a board to use on a storefront window as protection against Hurricane Blanca in Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, Saturday June 6, 2015. The unpredictable Blanca, which strengthened suddenly from a Category 1 to a Category 4 storm on Saturday before weakening slightly, is expected to make landfall as a tropical storm on Monday. But authorities said its outer bands could start hitting the southern Baja California Peninsula as a hurricane on Sunday. (AP Photo/Eduardo Verdugo) In Baja California, 2,000 army troops and 1,321 marines have been put on alert, as well as emergency responders and power line technicians, said Civil Protection director Luis Felipe Puente. He said there is currently a 70 percent hotel occupancy rate in Los Cabos and warned tourists to be attentive to any advisories issued by authorities Some businesses and banks were seen hammering boards over their windows in preparation for Blanca's arrival. People began forming lineups at gas stations to stock up on fuel. Blanca's maximum sustained winds on Saturday night were near 120 mph (195 kph), according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center. The hurricane is centered about 255 miles (415 kilometers) south of Cabo San Lucas and is moving northwest near 10 mph (17 kph). A hurricane watch is in effect for an area from Cabo San Lucas to Santa Fe. A tropical storm warning is in effect from Loreto to Puerto San Andresito, including Cabo San Lucas. Puente said he saw no reason to suspend local elections scheduled to be held on Sunday. http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/...82_634x400.jpg A man lays down tape to reinforce storefront windows against Hurricane Blanca in Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, Saturday June 6, 2015. The unpredictable Blanca, which strengthened suddenly from a Category 1 to a Category 4 storm on Saturday before weakening slightly, is expected to make landfall as a tropical storm on Monday. http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/...38_634x383.jpg Drivers wait in line to fill up their gas tanks, in preparation for Hurricane Blanca in Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, Saturday June 6, 2015. http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/...50_634x419.jpg Workers board over store front windows in preparation for Hurricane Blanca, in Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, Saturday June 6, 2015. http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/...72_634x401.jpg Men tow a boat to higher ground, as they prepare for the arrival of Hurricane Blanca in Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, Saturday June 6, 2015. http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/...-8_634x420.jpg This NOAA satellite image taken Saturday, June 06, 2015 at 10:00 AM EDT shows an upper level low over the Great Basin bringing rain showers and thunderstorms to Nevada, Arizona, Colorado and New Mexico. Another area of low pressure over the northern Plains moves eastward with it\'s associated warm front producing rain and thunderstorms to the Upper Mississippi Valley. In contrast, mostly sunny skies dominate the west coast from Washington through California. Further south, Hurricane Blanca is south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico with maximum sustained winds of 130 miles per hour. Blanca will continue to move slowly to the northwest and will impact the Baja Peninsula in the coming days. (Weather Underground via AP) |
VIDEO/PhOtOs >TS. ERIKA Hits Caribbean >Causes Deaths/Mass Flooding
Tropical Storm Erika Dissipates Leaving 20 People Dead and 31 Missing in Caribbean as Florida is Told to Brace for Heavy Rain
Tropical Storm Erika dissipated early on Saturday, even as its remnants began drenching parts of eastern Cuba. However, it left devastation in its path - killing at least 20 people and leaving another 31 missing on the small eastern Caribbean island of Dominica, authorities said. In Haiti, one person died in a mudslide just north of Port-au-Prince and at least four others were killed in a traffic accident that apparently occurred in the rain. Scroll down for Videos http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/...0861521940.jpg A man on a loader cleans garbage dumped by the overflow of a canal caused by heavy rains from Tropical Storm Erika in Port-au-Prince on Saturday. Erika left at least 20 people dead when it swept over the tiny island nation of Dominica, officials reported, as the system dissipated early on Saturday http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/...0861532598.jpg Waves crash along the shores of the Malecon in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic on Friday. The eastern Cuban city of Santiago was hit by about two hours of heavy rain on Saturday morning as the storm was falling apart http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/...0861581245.jpg Cars drive in the rain and past fallen pieces of palm trees in Santo Domingo on Friday. On Saturday, residents reported no flooding or other damage, saying they wished it would rain more to help alleviate a months-long drought that has hit eastern Cuba particularly hard http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/...0861588992.jpg Members of the Emergency Operations Committee (COE) monitor the trajectory of Tropical Storm Erika via satellite in Santo Domingo on Friday. Due to some likely weakening over mountainous areas, Erika was no longer forecast to make U.S. landfall as a hurricane The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said the storm had degenerated into a trough of low pressure by early Saturday after mountains and an unfavorable environment in Hispaniola knocked Erika below tropical storm force. The eastern Cuban city of Santiago was hit by about two hours of heavy rain on Saturday morning as the storm was falling apart. Residents reported no flooding or other damage, saying they wished it would rain more to help alleviate a months-long drought that has hit eastern Cuba particularly hard. 'It's a little cloudy, there's some wind, but not very strong. But I wish it would keep raining to fill up the reservoirs, because we really need it,' said Jorge Barrera, a 56-year-old mechanical engineer. Dominica Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit said in a televised address late Friday that damage inflicted by the storm set that island back 20 years. Some 15 inches (38 centimeters) of rain fell on the mountainous island. 'The extent of the devastation is monumental. It is far worse than expected,' he said, adding that hundreds of homes, bridges and roads have been destroyed. 'We have, in essence, to rebuild Dominica.' http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/...0776466037.jpg John Cagialosi, a hurricane specialist at the center, warned that people in Florida should still brace for heavy rain. The above map which showed a previous trajectory of the storm, which caused Florida to declare a state of emergency http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/...0768530793.jpg Flooding and mudslides brought devastation to the island nation of Dominica as the storm worked its way west and north. Above, people are left either side of a smashed road http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/...0820560461.jpg At least 20 people died in the country of 70,000 people as 12 inches of rain fell in less than ten hours. Above, residents of Dominica in the capital of Roseau on Friday http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/...0820571231.jpg Dominica's prime minister said that the country would have to rebuild after devastation caused by the storm set it back 20 years At least 31 people have been reported missing, according to officials with the Barbados-based Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency. The island's airports remained closed, and some communities remained isolated by flooding and landslides. Skerrit asked people to share their resources with each other as foreign aid trickled in. 'This is a period of national tragedy,' he said. 'Floods swamped villages, destroyed homes and wiped out roads. Some communities are no longer recognizable.' Before dissipating, Erika knocked out power to more than 200,000 people in Puerto Rico and caused more than $16 million in damage to crops there, including plantains, bananas and coffee. In Haiti, authorities evacuated 254 prisoners in Gonaives to other locations because of flooding and two people were hospitalized after their home in Port-au-Prince collapsed in heavy rains. Four people died and another 11 were hospitalized in Leogane, just west of the Haitian capital, when a truck carrying a liquor known locally as clairin crashed into a bus and exploded. Authorities said it apparently was raining when the accident occurred. http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/...0821970904.jpg 'The extent of the devastation is monumental. It is far worse than expected,' the island's prime minister Roosevelt Skerrit said in a televised address http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/...0768525509.jpg Authorities said that in addition to the dead, there were 31 people missing in Dominica on Friday. Above, the village of Coliahut http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/...0768723243.jpg This church was ruined by water pulsing through the streets of the capital city of Roseau. Some areas of the island were cut off from rescue workers http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/...0769719598.jpg Dominica'a Douglas-Charles airport is pictured above covered in debris. It is too badly damaged for planes use. The island's other airport is also closed http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/...0768794854.jpg The town of Fond Cole on Dominica suffered from heavy flooding. Above, a man looks out on the landscape in the wake of the storm While the storm was stumbling over the Dominican Republic and Haiti, John Cagialosi, a hurricane specialist at the center, warned that people in Florida should still brace for heavy rain, said 'This is a potentially heavy rain event for a large part of the state,' he said. Florida Gov. Rick Scott earlier declared a state of emergency for the entire state and officials urged residents to fill gas tanks and stockpile food and water. Erika was a particularly wet storm, and had been moving across a region that has been struggling with drought. Given how dry Puerto Rico and parts of Florida have been, 'it could be a net benefit, this thing,' said MIT meteorology professor Kerry Emanuel. At 9.30 EDT, the remnants of Erika were located about 130 miles (205 kilometers) east of Camaguey, Cuba, and were moving west-northwest near 22 mph (35 kph) in a general motion expected to continue into the evening, the Hurricane Center said. The storm's maximum sustained winds were near 35 mph (55 kph). The Hurricane Center said Erika's remnants were expected to move near the coast of eastern and central Cuba on Saturday and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. It said it was cancelling future public advisories http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/...0822176527.jpg Florida Governor Rick Scott (center) announced that the entire state would be placed into a state of emergency ahead of the storm, and officials urged residents to fill gas tanks and stockpile food and water http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/...0822214518.jpg Meteorologists have said that the storm is difficult to track and could take different paths as it approaches the United Statess. Above, a trajectory seen via satellite in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/...0773668282.jpg The United States territory of Puerto Rico was also hit by heavy rain on Friday. Above, waves crash on the island in the municipality of Vieques http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/...0775225261.jpg Forecasters hope that the storm will weaken after reaching land in places such as Puerto Rico (above), but it would strengthen as it heads back to open water http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/...0822521502.jpg Erika is the fifth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. Above, winds and waves from Erika in the Dominican Republic Meanwhile in the Pacific, Jimena turned into a powerful Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 125 mph (205 kph), and the Hurricane Center said it was likely to be near Category 5 status soon, though it did not pose an immediate threat to land. After Florida Gov. Rick Scott declared a state emergency, local authorities started handing out sandbags, while schools and universities were being prepared for use as emergency shelters. It was previously reported that the storm was unlikely to reach land as a hurricane, though regardless of its classification it could bring damaging winds and flooding to cities such as Miami, Orlando and Jacksonville. Roads and buildings on the island of about 70,000 people have been smashed apart by flash floods after is received more than 12 inches of rain in less than 10 hours. Forty-six-year-old security guard Peter Julian, who had joined friends after leaving work, returned to find his home of 20 years destroyed. http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/...0822578851.jpg Above, two Floridians in Hialeah, Miami-Dade County, buy supplies at the supermarket after officials urged them to stockpile food and water http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/...0822584213.jpg On Friday stormy weather could already been seen around Miami, with a huge waterspout visible not far from land. Above, a resident of Hollywood, Florida with sandbags 'I am blessed to be alive. God was not ready for me ... I have lost everything and now have to start all over again,' he said. Some disaster-struck areas such as Petite Savanne have yet to be reached because of mudslides, while the nation's airports have been rendered inoperable by the ride of debris swept onto the island. Neighbouring countries have donated helicopters to search and rescue efforts, as 31 people were also reported missing. For days, forecasters had described Erika, the fifth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, as unusually hard to predict due to disruption from wind patterns and its interaction over land, which weakens a storm, and warm water, which provides added energy. Earlier forecasts indicated Erika could become the first hurricane to hit Florida since Wilma in October 2005. |
Re: PhOtOs>Super Hurricance Patricia=Earth's Strongest Storm +Severe Weather Reports
At 200 MPH, Hurricane Patricia is Now the Strongest Tropical Cyclone Ever Recorded
23 Oct 2015 https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media...9227030566.jpg Shortly after midnight on October 23, 2015, a group of courageous men and women flew into the center of Hurricane Patricia and landed in the history books. With measured winds of 200 MPH, Hurricane Patricia became the strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded anywhere on Earth. http://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/...1163701283.png Mexico's West Coast in Grave Danger as 'Potentially Catastrophic' Hurricane Patricia Nears http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/...98_964x400.jpg Hurricane Patricia is now a “potentially catastrophic,” scale-topping category five hurricane with maximum winds of 185 MPH. This is a rare scenario in which it cannot be hyped or overstated how much danger this storm poses to communities on Mexico’s west coast, including Puerto Vallarta, Manzanillo, and the numerous small towns between the two. Hurricane Patricia Smashes Record for Most Intense Storm Ever Recorded in Eastern Pacific Astonishing meets record-breaking. Category five Hurricane Patricia exceeded all odds early Friday… https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media...9329642790.png Things started to go downhill on Wednesday night and Thursday morning. The storm began to show signs of rapid strengthening, leaping from 65 MPH at 10:00 PM CDT on Wednesday to an 85 MPH category one hurricane at 4:00 AM CDT on Thursday. From there, almost every advisory saw Patricia’s maximum sustained winds jump higher and higher. During the 24-hour period between 4:00 AM CDT on Thursday and 4:00 AM CDT on Friday, Patricia went from an 85 MPH category one to a 200 MPH category five. Its minimum central pressure dove from 980 millibars to 880 millibars over the same period, such an extreme pressure drop that it is unprecedented in modern history. The storm is so intense that the air temperature up in the hurricane’s eye, thousands of feet above the surface, was 89°F. 89°F! Hurricane Hunter aircraft recorded sustained winds of 221 MPH at flight level a few thousand feet above the surface of the ocean. Patricia is a storm without precedent. We are living history today, but nobody will live it more than Mexico. While we try to wrap our minds around what the atmosphere did last night, it’s important to remember that there are people in the path of this storm. This is not some abstract homework assignment assigned by some madman meteorology professor. This is a real storm that is quickly approaching land and soon threatens to create unimaginable amounts of devastation in any communities caught directly in the path of Patricia’s eye. https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media...9426779942.png This is becoming the strongest storm we’ve ever recorded, it could also go down in the history books for the amount of human suffering it could cause if it runs smack into a populated area on Mexico’s west coast. We can’t lose sight over the human toll this storm will likely incur. If the worst case scenario unfolds and the strongest part of this storm hits a populated area, the human suffering will be immense by any standard, let alone what we think can happen in this day and age. The loss of life from wind, surge, and flooding will be enormous, but the deep horror of the lasting effects—crippled infrastructure, illnesses, lack of food, water, clothing, and shelter—will linger for months after the storm dissipates. https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media...1351748387.jpg There aren’t too many people in the likely landfall zone between these two heavily-populated cities, but even the best, most prepared city is ill prepared for the full fury of a category five roaring ashore, let alone these small towns and villages that couldn’t stand up to the might of a storm half this strong. Puerto Vallarta in particular—a city that’s home to at least a quarter of a million residents and tourists—is perilously close to the predicted track of the center of the cyclone, and solidly within the cone of uncertainty, which accounts for the average errors forecasters have made in the predicted tracks of previous storms. Any westward wobble in this hurricane’s ultimate path could devastate this popular tourist destination. One of the greatest risks with Patricia at the moment is catastrophic winds that will shred well-built buildings, demolish trees, and severely cripple local infrastructure for weeks if not months. Thankfully, this is a storm with a relatively small hurricane force wind field, so the extent of the extreme wind damage should be limited to a small area. Hopefully that small area turns out to be unpopulated woodlands. A storm surge is likely along the coast, but the direction of the storm compared to the angle of the coastline could spare the region from the worst case scenario. https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media...1416060451.png However, there is concern about a small town called Pérula, which sits at the apex of a cove-like twist in the coastline about 70 miles south of Puerto Vallarta. The storm’s right-front quadrant (the most dangerous part) will pass very close to this town, and the shape of the land here could collect a storm surge and amplify it much higher than it would have grown otherwise, putting the town’s residents in a very dangerous situation. In addition to the extreme winds and storm surge, flash flooding from very heavy rainfall will be a significant hazard anywhere in the path of this storm, even after it begins to weaken. More than a foot of rain is possible in many spots as Patricia (and its eventual remnants) work inland, and rough terrain will exacerbate these rainfall totals. Life-threatening flash flooding is a given, especially in inland and mountainous areas. Landslides and mudslides are also an ever-present danger in this part of the world. https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media...1475436323.jpg If the hurricane manages to maintain its current strength through landfall, Patricia could be the first category five to hit this part of Mexico in more than half a century, and the first to hit North America since Felix struck Nicaragua in 2007. The rate at which Hurricane Patricia strengthened is jaw-dropping even to seasoned weather geeks. The storm exploded from a tropical storm on Tuesday night to the full-scale fury of evaporated paradise in just 24 hours, which, according to the NHC ties 1997’s Hurricane Linda as the most explosive strengthening ever recorded during the satellite era. We’ve seen world history today, and that might not even be the start of it. |
Hurricane Matthew >Most Powerful Storm to Hit Atlantic in a Decade
Hurricane Matthew Weakens Slightly While Roaring Across the Caribbean as Islanders Brace for The arrival of The Most Powerful Storm to Hit The Atlantic in a Decade
Daily Mail UK, 1 October 2016 http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2016/...5300469691.jpg Hurricane Matthew is picking up steam in the central Caribbean Sea (above) - and it may have its sights set on Florida and the rest of the Eastern seaboard of the United States (its anticipated path is seen in the bottom inset photo). The National Weather Service announced late Friday that the storm, which as of this writing is hovering about 100 miles northwest of the northern tip of Colombia, has been upgraded to a Category 5 hurricane. Matthew, the first Category 5 hurricane since Felix in 2007, threatens to wreak havoc on Jamaica, where locals are preparing for the expected damage (top inset), and Cuba. Hurricane Matthew weakened slightly early Saturday as it continues roaring across the Caribbean Sea on a course that put Jamaica, Haiti and Cuba in the path of its potentially devastating winds and rain. With winds reaching 155 miles per hour, forecasters said the storm - downgraded to a Category 4 hurricane from the top Category 5 - was still powerful enough to wreck homes as islanders braced for its arrival. The National Hurricane Center called it the strongest Atlantic hurricane since Felix in 2007, and said Matthew will be approaching Jamaica late Sunday night. It is expected to reach the eastern part of the island on Monday. http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2016/...5323499418.jpg Hurricane Matthew weakened slightly early Saturday to a Category 4 storm. This NOAA satellite image taken on Saturday shows the well-defined storm continuing to slowly move westward at about 7mph across the Caribbean http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2016/...5323339581.jpg The storm poses a danger to Jamaica, parts of Hispañola, eastern Cuba, and the Bahamas. It could hit the United States sometime next week Evan Thompson, director of Jamaica's National Meteorological Service, said the first effects of the storm may be felt as early as Saturday. 'We do consider it serious,' Thompson said. 'We are all on high alert.' Jamaican authorities said they were taking all possible precautions. 'The government is on high alert,' Robert Morgan, director of communications at the prime minister's office, said. 'We hope that the hurricane does not hit us, but if it does hit us, we are trying our very best to ensure that we are in the best possible place,' he said. Disaster coordinators, police and troops are on standby and shelters are being opened across the island, Morgan said. As of 8am EDT, the storm was centered about 400 miles southeast of Kingston and was moving west at 7mph. Hurricane-force winds extended outward up to 45 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles. http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2016/...5323447098.jpg The National Hurricane Center called it the strongest Atlantic hurricane since Felix in 2007, and said Matthew will be approaching Jamaica late Sunday night It brought extremely high tides, storm surge and heavy rain to Colombia, prompting authorities to declare an alert as local TV broadcast images of cars and tree trunks surging though flooded streets in coastal areas. Local media in La Guajira province reported that one person died in flooding. Matthew caused at least one death when it entered the Caribbean on Wednesday, with officials in St. Vincent reporting a 16-year-old boy was crushed by a boulder as he tried to clear a blocked drain. The center of the storm will move away from the Guajira Peninsula early on Saturday, across the central Caribbean Sea on Saturday and approach Jamaica late on Sunday, the NHC said. Matthew was forecast to make landfall as a major storm on Monday on Jamaica's southern coast, home to the country's capital, Kingston, and its only oil refinery. It could also affect tourist destinations such as Montego Bay in the north. http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2016/...5300581932.jpg Jamaicans flocked to the supermarkets on Friday to take care of last minute shopping pending the arrival of Hurricane Matthew in Kingston http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2016/...5323534764.jpg A man carries empty water containers while chatting with another man outside a supermarket, as they brace for the arrival of Hurricane Matthew in Kingston, Jamaica Southwest Airlines warned that flights to Montego Bay might be disrupted and said customers could reschedule. Despite sunny weather and only a few scattered clouds, many Kingstonians started stocking up on water and food on Friday. Tenaj Lewis, 41, a doctor who was stocking up with groceries in Kingston on Friday, said Jamaica was much better-prepared for hurricanes than when Gilbert struck. 'The country literally shut down for months,' she said. Jamaica was hard hit by Hurricane Gilbert, which made landfall on the island in September 1988 and was the most destructive storm in the country's modern history. The last major hurricane in the region was Sandy, in 2012. Since then, hurricanes have brought a few days of power outages but have not been nearly as destructive and many Jamaicans were unflustered. Matthew could be the most powerful storm to cross the island since records began, meteorologist Eric Holthaus said on Twitter. http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2016/...5323230121.jpg Meteorologists said if Matthew moves swiftly, it has a greater chance of causing significant impact from rain, wind and flooding along much of the Atlantic coast http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2016/...5323558739.jpg If Matthew did veer toward the US, it could hit Florida sometime in the middle of next week 'Hurricane Matthew could rival or possibly exceed Gilbert if the core of the strongest winds does actually move over Jamaica,' Dennis Feltgen, a meteorologist and spokesman for the hurricane center in Miami, said. 'There is no certainty of that at this point.' Matthew was expected to bring heavy rainfall especially to the eastern tip and higher elevations, which could trigger flooding and landslides, Thompson said. Forecasters said rainfall totals could reach 10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches in Jamaica and southwestern Haiti. Quote:
The government issued a hurricane watch on Friday, and a tropical storm watch was issued for Haiti's southwest coast form the southern border it shares with the Dominican Republic to the capital of Port-au-Prince. Matthew is also forecast to skim past the southern coast of Haiti on Monday and officials said preparation efforts were focused in the south. 'We will prepare with drinking water for the patients, with medication, with generators for electricity (and) vehicles to go look for people at their homes,' Yves Domercant, the head of the public hospital in Les Cayes in the south, said. In Cuba, which has a strong record of protecting residents when storms strike, people in the eastern coastal city of Santiago de Cuba said they were following the news closely, although the sky was still blue. 'We don't know yet exactly where it will go, so we're still waiting to see,' Marieta Gomez, owner of Hostal Marieta, said. 'We Cubans are well prepared.' If Matthew did veer toward the US, it could hit Florida sometime in the middle of next week. Quote:
The only question is to what extent – if any – the hurricane depreciates in strength. 'If Matthew moves swiftly, it has a greater chance of causing significant impact from rain, wind and flooding along much of the Atlantic coast,' AccuWeather meteorologist Bernie Rayno said. 'On the other hand, if Matthew's forward speed slows, it could still have significant impact on the Atlantic coast, but in a much smaller area, when compared to a fast-moving hurricane,' Rayno said. Forecasters will have a much clearer idea of just how powerful Matthew remains after it completes its path near Cuba early next week. The storm will likely lose strength once it hits the Communist island, but it could regain strength once out to sea again. Analysts will also be able to chart its path and predict where precisely it will make landfall. If one were a betting man, forecasters say that Floridians should brace themselves by Wednesday. 'While a track into the western Caribbean and then the Gulf of Mexico is still possible, that outcome appears unlikely at this time,' said AccuWeather meteorologist Steve Travis. If the storm doesn't make landfall in the US, the impact will be minimal – rough surf, strong rip currents, and large swells. Dominican Republic and other Islands on High Alert for Hurricane Matthew |
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