Mayweather-Pacquiao Countdown:
Analyzing Fighters' Strategies for Superfight
Bleachers, 28 April 2015
Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao could not be more different, both in their personalities and fighting styles.
Mayweather brings a controlled rage into the ring, always dictating the pace even without throwing punches. He's a defensive fighter, first and foremost, using that to set up his offensive game plan. Pacquiao is an angry, aggressive fighter who uses his speed and power to force opponents into submission.
Both styles have been perfect fits for the two fighters. Mayweather has used his to build a perfect 47-0 resume; Pacquiao has 57 wins in 64 career fights and went nearly seven years without a loss from 2005 to 2012.
On May 2, the debate about which style works better will finally be settled when Mayweather and Pacquiao settle their professional differences. With so much being written about how the two fighters are approaching the battle, here's a closer look at their strategies and what it says about their mindset.
The Mayweather Strategy
John Locher/Associated Press
During the first episode of Showtime's Inside Mayweather vs. Pacquiao documentary, Mayweather says two things that stand out in his preparation for Pacquiao. The first is that sometimes it's necessary to fight harder, while other times, a more relaxed approach works.
The latter part isn't Mayweather saying he coasts but rather waits to see how his opponent will try making a move. That allows him to plan a strategy before going all-in.
The second discussion point is how Mayweather notes he will have to use a "heavy" slide moving right to attack Pacquiao due to Pac-Man's southpaw stance. Fighting is about comfort, at least, as much as a combat sport can be comfortable.
Mayweather's camp also is doing a lot of talking about what he plans to do in the fight. For instance, Mayweather Promotions CEO Leonard Ellerbe went on RingTV with Andreas Hale and left no doubt about what he expects to see:
"Floyd Mayweather is going to try to take Manny Pacquiao's head off, and you can count on that happening," Ellerbe said. "He's looking to finish him off, and I strongly believe that will happen."
A knockout would certainly be a change of pace for Mayweather, who hasn't ended a fight since Victor Ortiz in September 2011. If there is a fighter to end that four-year streak for Pretty Boy, it would be Pacquiao.
As great as Pacquiao is, he can leave himself open to a punch, to which he has admitted. Here's what Pac-Man told ESPN's Dan Rafael after Juan Manuel Marquez dropped him in December 2012:
"I was careless. He's not an easy opponent," Pacquiao said. "I did my best, but that's boxing. That's sports. I thought I got him in the last couple of rounds, but I got hit by a strong punch. I never expected that punch."
Mayweather isn't the powerful striker Marquez is, though he's not without power, as evidenced by 26 career knockouts in 47 career wins. The allure of a knockout to definitively say he's better than Pacquiao, instead of letting judges decide, will certainly appeal to Mayweather.
Yet, the strategy that has worked best for Mayweather as he has gotten older is fighting smartly and accurately, instead of trying to end things.
For instance, per CompuBox stats (via Josh Slagter of MLive.com), Mayweather's last fight against Marcos Maidana highlighted the undefeated star's precision:
As has become custom over his recent fights, Mayweather had pinpoint accuracy with his power shots. He landed 102 of 177 (58 percent) against Maidana. He landed 65 percent in the first fight and now has had four consecutive fights in which he's landed at least 50 percent of his power shots.
There's no reason to change a strategy that has worked so well for so long. Mayweather may not be able to relax as much because of the way Pacquiao fights, but he has proven time and again to adapt like a chameleon, thanks to his speed and ability to make an opponent miss his body with attacks.
The onus is on Pacquiao to prove he can keep putting pressure on Mayweather from the first bell to the last, not the other way around because Mayweather doesn't have to fight like a mad man to attack.
The Pacquiao Strategy
Jae C. Hong/Associated Press
Judging by recent buyrates for Pacquiao's fights, fans have perhaps become ambivalent toward the 36-year-old and his choice of opponents in recent years. For instance, boxing businessman Rick Glaser said Pacquaio's last bout with Chris Algieri did around 300,000 pay-per-view buys, per Chris Williams of Boxing News 24.
Besides not fighting the most thrilling competition, Pacquiao's career had become stale. While no one denies he's still terrific, there's not much fun and excitement that comes from watching him casually pick apart someone like Algieri or Timothy Bradley.
Leave it to a superfight against Mayweather to bring out the angry Pacquiao, who had a string of seven knockouts or technical knockouts in an 11-fight span from 2005 to 2009. (Eight, if you want to include Oscar De La Hoya quitting after eight rounds.)
Speaking to David Anderson of The Mirror, Pacquiao's trainer Freddie Roach believes the animosity his fighter has for Mayweather is going to have a profound impact on the fight:
For the first time in my life, I get the real strong feeling Manny doesn't like his opponent. I think it's going to carry over in this fight and I feel we'll light this guy up because Manny knocks out guys that he doesn't like. That's how he's been from day one. So I'm betting a knockout.
Going back to the feeling of ambivalence, maybe after the fourth fight with Marquez, Pacquiao hit a point in his career when he knew the opponents weren't in his league and decided to coast.
Now, with Mayweather on the horizon, Pacquiao is fighting someone who is, at least, an equal fighter to him. It gets the mojo going, like when he first fought De La Hoya in 2008.
Yet, this fight also has been a series of mind games between the two superstars. Mayweather showed up late to his media workout, which let Pacquiao play the good guy during his session for showing up early and engaging with everyone he possibly could.
Jae C. Hong/Associated Press
During Mayweather's workout, he made a comment about Pacquiao being reckless. Pacquiao responded to that at his workout, via The Associated Press (h/t Fox Sports):
"Reckless fighter? That's how people like me and love me, because they like an exciting fight," Pacquiao said. "We call this boxing, (and) boxing is more punching. We talk about punching."
Punching is great, and Pacquiao does it a lot, but there has to be a method to the madness because Mayweather is so smart. Per CompuBox stats (via ESPN's Rafael), Pacquiao's win over Algieri was more about what Algieri didn't do:
"Pacquiao landed 229 of 669 punches (34 percent), according to CompuBox punch statistics, while Algieri connected on only 108 of 469 blows (23 percent), few of which had any serious snap on them," Rafael wrote.
If Pacquiao is only landing 34 percent of his punches against Algieri, what's he going to look like against Mayweather?
By all accounts, Pacquiao wants to turn this into a slug fest. That's his best path to victory because slowing things down plays right into Mayweather's hands. Pacquiao can't be sloppy with his aggressiveness, as was the case against Marquez, or else this fight will be over before it begins.
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