Mayweather vs. Pacquiao: Full Odds and Predictions for Superfight
By 27 Mar, 2015
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As the weeks slowly count down toward May 2, when Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao step in the ring for the biggest boxing showdown in years, the odds seem to be signaling a shift in how betting is going.
An unfortunate subplot to this fight is the stigma of knowing these two didn't meet at their absolute peak, around 2009-10, which presents the dilemma of wondering how the odds might have looked back at that time.
The best part of this fight is there will at least be a definitive answer to the question of this era's best fighter. There can be a quibble about how many prime years these two have left, or if they are still in their primes, but it's another story for another day.
Instead, let's dive into a discussion about where the odds are at right now and how the early predictions analysis sees things playing out.
(SEE SCREENSHOT BELOW)
Mayweather will always be a favorite until he loses, because that's just the nature of sports betting. Even if an opponent is believed to be better, oddsmakers are always going to err on the side of caution because that zero in the loss column speaks volumes.
Yet Pacquiao is almost being dismissed by the oddsmakers. He's not as big of an underdog against Floyd Mayweather as someone like, say, Marcos Maidana, but he isn't exactly close to getting even odds.
One reason Pacquiao deserves more credit for his chances in this fight was pointed out by Miguel Cotto, who knows both superstars well, when he spoke to the
New York Post:
“After working with Freddie (Roach) I think Freddie is going to be huge in the fight,” Cotto said. “I’m going for Manny.”
Roach told Yahoo Sports about a change in Pacquiao's training regimen to cure a long-standing cramp issue in the star fighter's legs:
We did change his running schedule because I don't like him running the hills six days a week. I've got him on the track a lot more now doing fast sprint-type workouts instead of hill workouts. I think it's better for the older fighters sometimes to stay away from the hills so much.
When he was young, it was OK, but he's getting a little older and the wear and tear of going up that hill, which is all concrete, is really not good for his legs. On the days he spars, he goes [to run at] Pan Pacific Park, and on the other days, we go over to UCLA.
In addition to avoiding cramps, that's a big point to discuss in Pacquiao's training. He's at a point, being 36 years old, where constantly running up a hill won't change much for him physically. His stamina is in a class all by itself and has shown no signs of slowing down as age has caught up to him.
The change in this approach will allow Pacquiao to focus more on building his quickness, particularly in the upper body and hands. Mayweather's success comes from being faster than everyone he fights, which would stand to be the case in this fight.
Give Pacquiao, as well as Roach, credit for figuring out what his opponent does better and addressing it in training, even if it came through simply trying to avoid leg cramping.
Ethan Miller/Getty Images
As for Mayweather's tactic, he seems like the kind of fighter who is going to make sure he sets the tempo and pace of the fight. That's not to say he isn't capable of change when necessary, but being as fast as he is gives him more leash than other fighters.
One fun development from training are reports from anonymous sources that Mayweather was knocked out in sparring by Zab Judah, who has since denied those claims. It doesn't seem likely that Money is going to be dropped in sparring, so believing is your choice.
An aspect of Mayweather's game that Roy Jones Jr. believes to be underrated is power, which he told CBS Sports about
:
Pacquiao may think he'll be able to outwork him and not worry about (Mayweather's) power because he hasn't had to use it. Now that he's gotten older he will use his power, and that's going to be a bigger problem for Pacquiao. Because, to me, the only way for him to beat Pacquiao is to get him out of there.
The recent numbers certainly back up Jones' claim, as CompuBox had Mayweather landing 178 out of 274 power punches attempted in the first fight with Maidana
What outcome are you rooting for on 2 May?
Floyd Mayweather wins by KO or TKO Floyd Mayweather wins by decision (split or unanimous) Manny Pacquiao wins by KO or TKO Manny Pacquiao wins by decision (split or unanimous) Draw ???
When you combine Mayweather's precise accuracy, to go along with solid power at 146 pounds, Pacquiao will have to be as perfect as ever with his punching and keep his head out of striking distance.
If you recall when Pacquiao lost to Juan Manuel Marquez in December 2012, which Pac-Man was winning handily at the time, he left his head open in the sixth round and ate a right hand on the jaw that had him seeing stars.
Mayweather isn't as strong as Marquez, but he's perfectly capable of scoring a knockout in a situation like the one Pacquiao set up in that fight.
The outcome of this fight will be one of the most discussed in sports for a long time.
Mayweather is in that rare class of combat sports athletes where he can't be expected to lose until after it happens for the first time.
Pacquiao will be the greatest challenge in his career, but Money will be celebrating his biggest win in a pile of cash.
=Mayweather defeats Pacquiao by our unanimous decision
.