Published Feb 5 2015 12:12 PM EST
A forecast of another winter storm on the way into early next week in the Northeast and Great Lakes, while frustrating for some, is certainly on par with
February's notorious reputation.
This potential storm will have a different flavor than the past few storms, but still could be a major headache if you have travel plans. Let's break down what we know about this system.
Potential East Coast setup early next week.
Significant Snowstorm Ahead?
Yet another potent disturbance will start to dive south of the Canadian border and into the Great Lakes on Saturday, eventually carving a southward dip in the jet stream near the East Coast Monday into Tuesday.
A swath of light to moderate snow is expected to blanket the northern tier from northern Minnesota to northern Michigan
Cold air near the surface over much of the Northeast will be reinforced by three factors: 1) eastern Canadian high pressure nosing southward early next week, 2) the already refrigerated air mass behind an arriving arctic front late this week and 3) the existing heavy snowpack not allowing temperatures to rebound much late this week.
This should then force low pressure to track off the East Coast Monday into Tuesday. Sounds familiar, right?
This track would favor prolonged snow from Sunday through at least early Tuesday over a significant swath of the Northeast, in particular, much of New England, New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey.
With such a prolonged period of snow, accumulations may add up to over a foot in some areas. If our current thinking is correct, though, the snow will fall at a slow enough clip that road crews should be able to keep up with it. Nonetheless, many folks may be doing a lot of shoveling or snowblowing to keep walkways and driveways clear.
Here are computer model forecast snowfall amounts through Tuesday, Feb. 10, for selected cities. Keep in mind that forecasting snowfall is quite challenging, especially beyond two or three days into the future, so these are rough guidelines, subject to change as we draw nearer to the storm in time.
Computer Model Snowfall Projections
Snowfall projections from two major computer models for selected cities through next Tuesday. This gives a general idea of how much snow may fall from the upcoming multi-day event.
Either way, expect travel impacts in the Great Lakes Saturday into Sunday, spreading into the Northeast Sunday through Tuesday. Check back for updates and more details on this forecast over the next few days. Below is a look at the latest timing.
Saturday's Forecast
Sunday's Forecast
Monday's Forecast
Tuesday's Forecast
Pedestrians navigate the snow, ice and puddles along a Manhattan street on Feb. 2, 2015 in New York City.