22 August 2012
96L is likely to become TD#10 today, this storm will likely stay out to sea.
Tropical Storm Issac is currently about 280 miles east of the Lesser Antilles this morning, and moving westward around 18 miles per hour. It will likely cross the northeastern Caribbean islands this afternoon, and be in the northeastern Caribbean, the forecast takes it to hurricane status by the time it is south of Puerto Rico. Because of the proximity to Puerto Rico at the time, and it being in the cone, Hurricane Watches are now up for Puerto Rico and the US Vrigin Islands. The closest approach to Puerto Rico should be around Tomorrow Afternoon.
Beyond that, it is forecast to approach the island of Hispaniola, still as a hurricane, so Hurricane watches have been raised for the Dominican Republic. Saturday morning is when it should be near Hispaniola.
The forecast then takes it briefly across the western part of Haiti, and eastern Cuba, approaching the Bahamas and potentially Florida after that. Central and South Florida is in the cone as of this morning, but so is Jamaica, and the Northern Bahamas. It remains prudent to watch beyond the Hurricane Watch areas, but much could change that far out. Still, based on the official Hurricane track, if Isaac were to approach South Florida, conditions would deteriorate late Sunday Afternoon and Evening and landfall would likely be Monday morning is when it would be near South Florida, if it were to approach there as a borderline cat 1/2 hurricane.
Intensity forecasts are usually off and the strength of the system could be weak or strong based on exactly how much land interaction occurs with Hispaniola. Many systems have been torn up by the mountains there, never to fully recover.
Last year, another I storm, Irene was also forecast toward Florida at this point (See the forecast history for Irene (2011)), this one is in a similar spot, but conditions around it are different from last year. This is brought up to show that the forecast can change, and to keep watching it over the next few days, by the time it nears Hispaniola there should be a better idea of the eventual track of the system. You should have already prepared for hurricane season much earlier this year.
In short, those in the watch area need to prepare for a possible hurricane (
PR/VI and Hispaniola), and those in the Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida need to keep tabs on this system especially as it nears Hispaniola.
The models will shift west and east over time, even the Gulf of Mexico to Carolinas cannot be ruled out, anywhere in the cone should be watching the system very closely.