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Old 09-08-12, 21:23   #67
photostill
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Default re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=Isaac-WARNINGS & UPDATES

Erneso




Much of Erneso's internals actually organized more into landfall, and for the first several hours after landfall a distinct eye feature was still very noticeable in the enhanced infrared images.

Tropical cyclones that intensify into landfall and go on to cross a peninsula (such as Florida, or in this case, the Yucatan) often have a very good chance of pulling things back together rapidly once getting back out over the water. Such appears to be the case with Ernesto, with recon finding winds up at 5,000' of nearly 100 MPH, and peak surface winds of around 65 MPH, which has been set as the current advisory as of 11:00 PM EDT Aug. 8.

Ernesto has a window of about 12-30 hours, based on exact track and forward speed, to become a hurricane again. At present, this looks likely, and that is reflected in NHC's official forecast which is calling for a second Ernesto landfall as a hurricane, this time with the center coming ashore somewhere between Veracruz and Chilitepec, MX..

It is expected that Ernesto will drop widespread rainfall totals of 3"-9", with potentially much higher totals in some locations, over Tabasco, Veracruz, Puebla & northern Oaxaca through Friday, with even more heavy rain possible over the weekend. As a result, dangerous inland flooding will probably occur in parts of these states from today through Sunday.

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