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Old 27-06-12, 17:11   #56
photostill
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Default re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=Ernesto-WARNINGS & UPDATES



Debby has been downgraded to a tropical depression, but the official forecast takes it back to Tropical Storm strength once over Florida, but then going out to sea. It's legacy is flooding rains and some storm surge along the Gulf. Bringing Jacksonville another round of Tropical Storm rainfall after Beryl earlier in the year, along with extreme Flooding in the Big Bend and eastern Panhandle, along with spotty flooding along the west coast of Florida. Wakulla County was likely the hardest hit area, with flooding not seen in recent memory, houses along the Sopchoppy river (even those on stilts) were flooded.

Much of the rainfall on the southwest side is gone, with only a few narrow bands left, the majority of the rainfall is to the northeast of the center, which made landfall earlier today. Official movement is East northeast at 6 mph, but latest radar and satellite observations seem to imply it is briefly back over the gulf, and moving south southeast.

Debby has been an extremely difficult forecast, and the the GFS model, with new upgrades this year, wound up doing the best. One of the aspects of the difficulty earlier on was the reformation of the center of Debby, which pulled it up into an area with very little steering currents (but enough shear to rip the convection off to the northeast)

Until Debby has moved well offshore, I wouldn't consider it over, however.

In the far east Atlantic, another area is worth watching for development, it currently has a 10% chance, but it may
develop later into the week or next week. The situation out east does not rule it out approaching the Caribbean eventually, so it'll have to be monitored over the next two weeks.

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