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Old 23-06-12, 17:19   #50
photostill
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Default re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=Storm Debbie-WARNINGS & UPDATES





96L is still quite a jumper. Between 6AM EDT and 9AM EDT, the LLC re-centered, "jumped," yet again. Such is often the pattern of underdeveloped, or marginally developed, tropical cyclones.

So now the LLC is centered roughly near 26N 88W, and looks to be drifting slowly to the west. However, despite this present westward slide, the net effect of all of these jumps has been to establish the system appreciably farther north, and it now lies in the east-central Gulf of Mexico, putting coastal locations along the eastern Gulf of Mexico under greater risk from rip currents and minor flooding, earlier than might have been anticipated by many.

Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are likely to be issued sooner rather than later, and may even go out before the cyclone is named, but unfortunately, any watches that would go up now would have to cover an unusually wide area, given the uncertainties that still exists, so it is prudent that NHC waits until the next round of model runs and today's recon flight. However, by holding off, is also possible that should 96L be upgraded (virtually a 100% likelihood), it is upgraded strait to a tropical storm, potentially even in the 45-55 MPH range.

If named, Debby would be the earliest fourth named storm in the Atlantic, not to mention make this the first June on record with a fourth named storm in the basin.

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