Yoshihiro Akiyama vs Jake Shields
Yoshihiro Akiyama (left) and Jake Shields/Dan Herbertson for MMA Mania
John Heinis: "Sexyama" has the privilege of making his welterweight debut in front of a Japanese home crowd this Saturday, despite losing three middleweight fights in a row.
Akiyama is the classic case of a Japanese star who couldn't step up to the plate once he faced top-tier competition in America. The fact is a third dan black belt in Judo rarely translates to heavy success in the UFC.
His opponent, Cesar Gracie black belt Jake Shields, is not exactly what most would consider an "easy fight" either.
Despite suffering back-to-back losses for the first time in his career, GSP and Jake Ellenberger aren't exactly push overs and Shields still has defeated plenty of quality opposition in his career including Dan Henderson, Paul Daley, Martin Kampmann, Yushin Okami and Carlos Condit.
Akiyama has always had cardio issues, at least in the UFC, while Shields has not, so the American's smothering, non-stop pressure style will eventually wear on Akiyama to the point where he has no chance but to tap and get his pink slip from Dana White
Jake Shields via 2nd round submission (guillotine choke)
Dwight Wakabayashi: They say timing is everything in the fight game and the timing is just not right for Akiyama. Fighting Jake Shields at this point and time is not going to be a pretty sight.
When Shields was on his incredible win streak a couple years ago and looking to provide a more entertaining fight for the fans, Akiyama may have had a chance to pounce on a Shields mistake.
Not now. Jake Shields is coming off of two consecutive losses for the first time in his career and he needs a win badly to keep himself relevant in the UFC.
When Shields game plans for victory, he must rely on his top heavy jiu-jitsu game and I see him smothering Akiyama in this one. He will look to lock up with Akiyama early and bully him down to the floor where he will stay on top and inflict damage.
Akiyama is a world class judoka and will be able to hang with Shields in the clinch, but he will not be able to deal with him once Shields gets on top of him. If the fight lasts, it could make for a very tough fight to watch.
Even though Akiyama is making a heroes return to fight in front of the Japanese fans who adore him, he is not going to beat Jake Shields. Shields needs a win badly to rejuvenate his career and place in the division.
Jake Shields by 3rd round TKO
Dale De Souza: I'll be as brief as possible: Yoshihiro Akiyama and Jake Shields are both former Middleweights, both went a long time being unbeaten before they came across certain fighters, and both are fighting for their jobs.
A drop to Welterweight was Akiyama's only way to stay in the UFC, but he intelligently did a test cut before he ever took the offer to fight Shields just to make sure he knew how to cut the weight properly, and many are thinking that Akiyama will have a few edges that he never had at Middleweight.
The drop to Welterweight for Shields has always been a question mark in my mind, because while he lost his father eighteen days before fighting Jake Ellenberger, and while there's no shame in losing to Georges St-Pierre, he didn't look that great against Martin Kampmann.
So to say Shields will have his work more than cut out for him is a Heavyweight-sized understatement.
I like the style matchup here, because Akiyama's Judo could prove more effective at 170 than it did at 185, even if it's against a fighter with the BJJ and the Wrestling of Shields, but Akiyama's striking is as much a problem for a 170-pound Shields as it would be for a 185-pound Shields as well.
Add in the Japanese crowds, and it'll take a well-calculated game plan for Shields to earn himself a win on Japanese soil.
"Time to say goodbye" for Akiyama?
I don't think so.
Yoshihiro Akiyama by TKO (Strikes) in early Round 2
Jeffrey McKinney: Yoshihiro Akiyama will face off against former Strikeforce middleweight champion Jake Shields in a fight where both men desperately need a win.
Akiyama has been in some exciting fights since coming to the UFC.
But despite winning three “Fight of the Night” bonuses, he is only 1-3 in the UFC.
Even his lone win against Alan Belcher came by a close split decision.
Shields has had similar luck. Although he came into the UFC on a 14-fight winning streak, Shields barely won his first fight against Martin Kampmann.
He lost his next two to Georges St-Pierre and Jake Ellenberger.
Both of these fighters know they need this win.
Although Akiyama will be fighting in front of the home crowd, I think Shields will leave it all out on the line.
Shields went through a lot last year with the loss of his father and the two losses back to back. I believe this will be his time to really prove how good he can be.
Jake Shields by 2nd round submission