Diego Sanchez vs. Jake Ellenberger
Jordy McElroy: Coming off a monumental upset win over Jake Shields, Jake Ellenberger could be a win away from a UFC title shot.
Former UFC lightweight contender
Diego Sanchez hopes to derail the Ellenberger war wagon in hopes of carving a path of his toward the welterweight title.
Neither fighter is known for crisp striking exchanges, but Ellenberger has proven on numerous occasions that his knockout power should be feared. Sanchez has one of the best chins in all of MMA, and outside of a cut stoppage against B.J. Penn, he has never been stopped in his professional career.
Seeing as both fighters are tremendous wrestlers, this bout could be decided on the feet. Sanchez tends to become a bit predictable at times, but he is likely the more proficient striker. Ellenberger is at his best when he’s in the pocket loading up his overhand.
If Sanchez can dance around the pocket and pick his shots on the outside, he should be able to rack up points and earn the nods of the judges. Ellenberger has to find a way to close the distance and bait Sanchez into unnecessary exchanges, but he shouldn’t overstay his welcome on the feet.
If Sanchez is winning the exchanges, Ellenberger needs to work for takedowns or seek out the clinch and work some dirty boxing.
An aspect to watch in this fight is conditioning. Sanchez has always been a cardio machine. Ellenberger is 4-4 when bouts go the distance. His conditioning was one of the main reasons he lost a split decision to Carlos Condit in September 2009.
(Diego Sanchez by Split Decision)
John Heinis: After back-to-back disappointing showings against
BJ Penn and John Hathaway, Diego Sanchez, the fighter formerly known as “The Nightmare,” rebounded with victories over Paulo Thiago and Martin Kampmann.
The former
Ultimate Fighter winner is generally a pleasure to watch with the vicious pace he pushes in all of his fights. It is rare, though, for him to pick up the “W” when he does not have a clear-cut advantage in the wrestling department.
Jake “The Juggernaut” Ellenberger will bring to the table grappling credentials that will make it difficult for Sanchez to get the fight to the ground.
While Sanchez’s brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu trumps Ellenberger’s purple belt, The Juggernaut is a better wrestler and is, physically, a far stronger fighter.
Throw in the fact that Ellenberger has the heavier hands (17 KO wins vs. six KO wins) and it will be an uphill battle for Diego.
Sanchez has shown an iron chin and an iron will throughout his professional career, but the former University of Nebraska-Omaha Maverick will be too much for him to handle here.
(Jake Ellenberger via unanimous decision, 30-27)
Dale De Souza: The simple fact of the matter is that Jake Ellenberger is making waves in the UFC welterweight division. Unless Diego Sanchez breaks him down with his wrestling before implementing his signature style of striking with fighters while they're against the cage, his fate will be likely no different from Jake Shields' fate.
Ellenberger is not a guy that one can just stand and brawl with, especially if one does not possess a striking game. "The Juggernaut" can probably rest easy in knowing that Sanchez does have a good enough striking game to make things interesting.
Sanchez should not be overlooked in this fight—he has shown a willingness to make bouts competitive despite being in the cage with such fighters as Jon Fitch and Martin Kampmann, but right at the mention of the Kampmann fight is when things get crazy, especially considering that even some of the people that picked Sanchez to beat Kampmann found themselves scoring that fight at least 2-1 for Kampmann.
I'd know, because I was one of those people who picked Sanchez and had it 29-28 for Kampmann despite the type of fight that ensued for 15 minutes straight.
Sanchez is a good fighter and he can take one hell of a punch regardless of who throws it, but Wednesday night just will not be his night. Ellenberger will let Sanchez learn that the hard way in front of a packed pro-Ellenberger crowd in Omaha.
(Ellenberger by third-round KO – Punch)
Dwight Wakabayashi: Jake Ellenberger is a beast on a roll right now, and I don't see Diego Sanchez as the guy to stop him. Ellenberger has plowed through his last two opponents and is on a five-fight win streak. The last man he knocked out was a formidable Jake Shields, and he will look to stand and slug it out with Sanchez too.
Ellenberger has placed himself on the cusp of a title shot and a win here would stamp his place.
Sanchez is just finding himself again at welterweight after his stint at 155 pounds, but I see him as a bit of a beaten, damaged fighter due to the in-your-face style he has employed through the years. His wars are always entertaining, but I can't help but think that Diego's shine gets tarnished after each and every one.
If he tries to pant, stand and trade against Ellenberger, it will be nighty-night for him. If he goes back to his wrestling and mauling style of top ground and pound, he could make a fight out of it.
(Ellenberger via first-round KO)