1. Detroit Lions
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I'll be blunt: This is my favorite pick of the week.
The Lions (4-0) are a 5.5-point favorite as they play host to the Bears (2-2).
The Lions are riding high with their newfound celebrity status, and after another stirring comeback the logical question is whether or not they can keep doing it. I don't recall a team coming back from a more than 20-point deficit in consecutive weeks like the Lions have, and I sure don't remember it happening in three straight games.
There are a few more substantial reasons that I like Chicago to upend Detroit.
Bears running back Matt Forte has 634 total yards of offense, and it's almost an even split in his rushing and receiving totals. He's the kind of back who could give Detroit's defense some problems because they don't know how he is going to be used. I can picture the Lions' defensive linemen "pinning their ears back" and going right after quarterback Jay Cutler, but I am not sure that's the answer in this game.
Forte did carry the ball 25 times last week, which is a heavy workload, so he'll have to be used judiciously against the Lions.
The Bears' defense is ranked 31st in the NFL, but they have played against Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton to start the season. It's not as if they are going to be surprised by what Matthew Stafford brings to the table. Lovie Smith has had a little more than a week to prepare for this game, and if any game plan can keep Calvin Johnson from beating a team, I believe Lovie's Bears can come up with one.
Finally, on defense, Ndamukong Suh and the rest of the Lions have gained a lot of attention as a throwback, punishing defense—kind of like the Bears.
Brian Urlacher and company have a lot of pride, and I don't see them surrendering the smash-mouth reputation of the franchise to a division rival so easily.