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Are you ready for the list of
NFL favorites that should be on upset alert for Week 5?
I bet you are.
But before we get to this week's slate of games, how did last week go?
Well, if you don't want to
go back and look at my predictions, let me summarize them for you.
I nailed Buffalo being upset by Cincinnati and held my breath as Detroit came back to beat Dallas.
Miami failed to knock off San Diego in my least confident selection of the week, because as I suggested, the Dolphins' backup cornerbacks couldn't solve
Philip Rivers.
St. Louis failed to upset Washington, and I am little bitter about that one because the Rams had their chances to pull out a win.
The game that was totally misread—and I have to take accountability here—is that the Jets failed miserably against the Ravens; simply put, Baltimore's physical defense overwhelmed the Jets' offense.
Well, onto this week with five more favorites that should be on upset alert. Mind you, these are just the five favorites that are most susceptible to taking a fall, not an iron-clad prediction that they will lose.
5. San Francisco 49ers
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San Francisco (3-1) hosts Tampa Bay (3-1) in a matchup of surprising contenders.
Well, at least the 49ers are surprising contenders, and I think the Buccaneers, currently three-point underdogs, could expose them. The Philadelphia Eagles let San Francisco climb back into a game where they were getting soundly beaten.
The same thing won't happen this week.
Tampa Bay averages somewhere in the ballpark of 31:30 in time of possession, and battering the Niners' defensive line with LeGarrette Blount probably blunts (pun intended) the amount of time San Francisco will have to keep up.
You could also see the Bucs' defenders—Mason Foster, Michael Bennett, Adrian Clayborn and Gerald McCoy—making life very difficult for Niners quarterback Alex Smith.
The bottom line here is that I am skeptical of a San Francisco squad that squeaked by Cincinnati and Philadelphia, and beat a bad Seattle team.
Tampa's schedule has been somewhat questionable as well, but they have at least split games with Atlanta (win) and Detroit (close loss).
4. Indianapolis Colts
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Sorry, but there is very little logic to making a winless team a favorite (this is a theme that you will see continued on the next slide).
There is no reason to believe the Colts, a 2.5-point favorite, will break through against the 1-3 Kansas City Chiefs.
Those who read my regular columns know that I think Indianapolis is essentially tanking their season to get a shot at drafting Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck.
I don't think Colts management believes Peyton Manning will return from neck surgery, and they see no better option than to try to go from one franchise signal-caller to possibly another.
On the field, Indianapolis has a mini-quarterback "controversy." Curtis Painter apparently played well enough in a loss to the Buccaneers on Monday night that there is a question of who will start against KC.
There is no controversy because, in reality, neither quarterback belongs in the NFL. Collins' quarterback rating of 65.9 and Painter's 43.9 completion percentage in 41 passes this year are two indicators of their struggles. Look for Kansas City outside linebacker Tamba Hali to get after whoever lines up under center for the Colts.
The biggest reason Indy figures to remain winless is that the Chiefs are just a better football team. Even at 1-3, after getting blown out the first two weeks, Kansas City has been much improved and arguably could be 2-2 if quarterback Matt Cassel doesn't throw a late screen pass right into the hands of San Diego Chargers' defensive back Eric Weddle.
Indianapolis is 28th in the league against the run, surrendering 133 yards per game, which should have Dexter McCluster and Thomas Jones licking their chops with ideas of having a huge day. Indy's pass-defense isn't much better, and Dwayne Bowe and Steve Breaston are talented enough to do damage for the Chiefs.