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Are you looking to throw away a lot of money without the hastle of burning it or dragging it down to the end of your driveway? Then you should seriously consider going to Las Vegas this weekend and letting your life savings ride on the
NFL team of your choice.
The NFL is a week-by-week league and perception changes dramatically. Here's how I would adjust each team's Super Bowl odds after a wild Week 4.
Arizona Cardinals: 80-1
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The Cardinals have the 27th-ranked pass defense in the league, and have allowed opponents to gain 94 first downs. They are in the negatives in turnover ratio, and are losing the time of possession battle by a small bit as well.
It doesn't matter if you have
Larry Fitzgerald running deep if you can't stop the pass. Considering the Cardinals' best secondary player was shipped off to Philadelphia for Kevin Kolb, the odds of those pass defense numbers getting any better are pretty slim.
Their odds of making the Super Bowl are even slimmer.
Overall Odds: 125-1
Atlanta Falcons: 50-1
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The Falcons went 13-3 last year with a strong offensive identity and solid defense. The defense has been less than solid this year and the offense, well, has changed their identity. Personally, I think it's for the worse.
Michael Turner works great within a ball-control offense, but the Falcons seem to be more interested in feeding Julio Jones and Roddy White at the moment. It hasn't exactly paid off.
If they go back to the "run the ball, stop the run" style from last year, they can still be a good team. Even if Ray Edwards it's a bust (told ya so).
I say 60-1 odds are fair for the Falcons.
Baltimore Ravens: 18-1
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Joe Flacco, Ray Rice,
Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. Those are players I would not want to see lined up across from my team.
So far, the Ravens have had one off game in Week 2, but otherwise have played very well. They have the offensive players to score quickly and the pass rush to play from ahead and build their leads off of turnovers.
I'm usually a big believer in the Steelers, but the Ravens look like the better team so far this year, and I'd consider them a Top 5 squad overall.
Overall Odds: 18-1
Buffalo Bills: 30-1
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The Bills started the season out extremely strong, winning their first three games in a dramatic fashion. After losing Week 4 in a dramatic fashion to the Bengals, their Vegas odds have taken a hit.
They can be very effective on offense, with not only an effective passing game but also a nice runner in Fred Jackson. The question is their defense, especially in the passing game.
That's not a good question to have.
Overall Odds: 30-1
Carolina Panthers: 100-1
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I know that the NFL is a passing league, but really, you still need a good overall team effort to win games. Unfortunately for the Panthers, they don't have a good team.
Their offensive line is doing a great job of pass protecting, but they've become enamored of Cam Newton's arm and are completely one-dimensional on offense. It's not a good thing, because playoff quality teams, especially if they catch a whiff of January, will have the players to stop the one thing a bad team does best.
It also doesn't help that they're currently 1-3.
Overall Odds: 100-1
Chicago Bears: 35-1
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The Bears and Bills are kind of the opposite sides of the same coin. The Bills have strong offense and a questionable defense. The Bears have a strong defense powered by Julius Peppers, and no passing game.
Seriously, their only offensive weapon to help
Jay Cutler is
Matt Forte. Forte leads the team in receptions and rushed for over 200 yards and a touchdown during Week 4. Of course, good teams can stop a running back, and if teams can stop Forte, the Bears defense likely isn't dominant enough to keep the hounds away forever.
I'd say this team has a 35-1 chance of taking home the Lombardi Trophy in January of 2012.
Cincinnati Bengals: 60-1
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The Bengals' win over the Bills on Sunday has done a lot to change public perception of the team. Admittedly, I'm a little biased because the Bengals were my preseason pick for "worst record in the league."
At 2-2, I'm thinking the Bengals will not get the No. 1 pick in 2012. Still, I'm not sure that I can take the team seriously with Andy Dalton as QB. I loved the guy coming out of the draft, but am not sure that he has the arm or the decision-making ability at this point in his career to lead the Bengals to the playoffs, much less the Super Bowl.
Overall Odds: 60-1
Cleveland Browns: 75-1
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The Browns are an improving team. They are strong up front on offense, and Colt McCoy is benefiting from the extra protection. They can run the ball, and they can do a decent job of slowing down opponents' air attacks, but the Browns are still essentially the Browns, and showed it in an embarrassing home blowout against Tennessee.
This team also resides in a division that's always tough if you're not the Steelers or Ravens, and the Bengals are proving to be a competent team as well.
Doesn't look good for the poor Browns' chances.
Overall Odds: 75-1