Predicting Every Fight at Fuel 10
 

UFC on Fuel 10: Info and Predictions for Nogueira vs. Werdum


By BleacherReport, on June 4, 2013 http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images...jpg?1370310774
Fabricio Werdum

The UFC is kind of interested in establishing itself in Brazil. Easily the world's third-hottest MMA bed at the very least, Brazil has become the apple of the Octagon's eye.

That's why you have UFC on Fuel TV 10 going down this Saturday from a city called Fortaleza. It's the third Brazilian locale to host a UFC event so far in 2013. This one doubles as the finale of the second season of The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil.

The cornerstone fight this weekend pits the season's two coaches against each other. It's an old Brazilian lion in Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (arguably the nation's most popular non-Anderson Silva combatant) against a not-exactly-young-but-definitely-still-highly-viable lion in Fabricio Werdum.

Here are information capsules and predictions for all 13 fights going down from Fortaleza, from Facebook to finale.

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Antonio Braga Neto vs. Anthony Smith


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Photo credit: Arthur Castro, GracieMag


Division: Middleweight


Antonio Braga Neto (8-1-1) finally makes his UFC debut after years spent in trench promotions and prospect buzz bins. The 25-year-old converted light heavyweight brings all-planet jiu-jitsu and a big, strong frame, especially for 185 pounds.
Strikeforce carryover Anthony Smith has a lot more big-time experience despite being a year younger, and he's done some good things in his career, but he doesn't have as much success as Braga Neto overall.


Prediction: Braga Neto, Unanimous Decision

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Caio Magalhaes vs. Karlos Vemola


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Karlos Vemola
Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Division: Middleweight


Karlos Vemola has what you call heavy hands. And yet, he has no standup game. I don't know, either.
But I do know he should be able to maul Caio Magalhaes back into the Stone Age, especially when you consider Vemola was pretty bulky at light heavyweight.


Prediction: Vemola, TKO, Round 1

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Rodrigo Damm vs. Mizuto Hirota


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Rodrigo Damm (left) fights Antonio Carvalho
Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports

Division: Featherweight


In order for a fight to be memorable for being boring, it has to be really, galactically boring. Such was the galaxy Rodrigo Damm entered after his particle-board-flat performance late last year in a split-decision loss to Antonio Carvalho.
Perhaps that's why they gave him Mizuto Hirota, a decidedly non-boring fighter with striking power and a brawler's toughness. Here's hoping, for the sake of my attention span, that Hirota controls the pace here and notches his first UFC victory.

Prediction: Hirota, TKO, Round 2

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Ildemar Alcantara vs. Leandro Silva


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Photo credit: GracieMag


Division: Welterweight


Ildemar Alcantara has only one loss in the past three years, including a 1-0 mark in the UFC after upending Wagner Prado.
Leandro Silva is not only debuting in the UFC on short notice, but is moving up from lightweight for the opportunity. Before stepping in for this fight, I believe he was slated to sell popcorn.


Prediction: Alcantara, KO, Round 1

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Godofredo Pepey vs. Felipe Arantes


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Photo credit: UFC.com


Division: Featherweight


Godofredo Pepey is a wild man, both on the feet and on the ground. He's also a lucky man, taking a controversial split decision over Milton Vieira in his last fight.
Pepey, a Fortaleza native and the runner-up from TUF Brazil 1, probably won't hear a lot of boos Saturday night.
Arantes is a sharp Muay Thai striker, but he may not have the chops to stay out of trouble on the ground, where Pepey will almost certainly want to go.


Prediction: Pepey, Submission, Round 3

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Ronny Markes vs. Derek Brunson


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Derek Brunson
Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Division: Middleweight


Two charismatic young fighters lock horns in a fight I'm frankly surprised drifted down to Facebook.
Derek Brunson is well-rounded but was uncharacteristically snoozy in smothering Chris Leben in his UFC debut. But a win is a win, and smothering is pretty smart against Leben.
Nevertheless, Brunson seems like the type who cares about a good show, which probably means he'll want an exciting fight with Ronny Markes, a promising UFC prospect in his own right.
The 25-year-old Markes, who fights with the Nova Uniao camp, hasn't lost in three UFC contests. The grappler should keep it going by smothering Brunson.
Live by the blanket, die by the blanket. How ironical.


Prediction: Markes, Split Decision

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Raphael Assuncao vs. Vaughan Lee


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Raphael Assuncao
Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Division: Bantamweight


Raphael Assuncao turned heads when he defeated Mike Easton in December and ran his record to 3-0 as a UFC bantamweight.
Vaughan Lee also turned heads when he submitted Norifumi Yamamoto in 2012, but he's been uneven since.


Prediction: Assuncao, Unanimous Decision

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Rony Jason vs. Mike Wilkinson


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Photo credit: Gustavo Scatena/Imagem Paulista


Division: Featherweight


All Rony Jason does is win. He won TUF Brazil 1, then won Knockout of the Night. He's 2-0 in the UFC, he's perfect in his last seven overall, he's a stone-cold finisher in the cage and he's popular outside of it.
Mike Wilkinson's a submission grappler and nice young Englishman from TUF: The Smashes, but he's running into a buzzsaw in the hockey-masked Brazilian.


Prediction: Jason, TKO, Round 1

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Erick Silva vs. Jason High


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Erick Silva
Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Division: Welterweight


I was so pumped to watch Erick Silva tangle with John Hathaway. But Hathaway's ulcerative colitis, unfortunately, had other ideas.
Jason High is a wrestler who may want to ground-and-pound Silva. But Silva showed against Jon Fitch that he's more than willing and able to roll on the mat. After that loss to Fitch, the Silva hype train gets back on track Saturday night.


Prediction: Silva, TKO, Round 2

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Daniel Sarafian vs. Eddie Mendez


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Photo credit: UFC.com


Division: Middleweight


Daniel Sarafian is a rock-solid submissions ace, and Mendez was a guy the UFC needed to find another fight for after injury forced him out of his fight with Nick Penner at UFC on FX 6.
But I don't think Mendez, fighting for the first time in the UFC, will be able to threaten Sarafian much, especially on the ground.


Prediction: Sarafian, Submission, Round 1

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Thiago Silva vs. Rafael Cavalcante


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Photo credit: UFC.com


Division: Light heayweight


Thiago Silva has to do something Saturday night. No more talk. No more promises. No more throat tattoos. He's got to go out there and knock somebody out.
Rafael Cavalcante is a smart and talented fighter, but I think the caged animal that is Silva is finally going to break free and eat. And then pass his drug test. Hopefully. Who knows. We'll see.


Prediction: Silva, KO, Round 2

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William Macario vs. Leonardo Santos


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Leonardo Santos (Photo credit: Zuffa, LLC via Getty Images)


Division: Welterweight


The TUF Brazil 2 finale is featuring two pretty darn good fighters.
William Macario, just 21 years old, is a monster. He hasn't lost in six bouts and his fights have only left the first round once.
Leonardo Santos, at 33, is the steady professional. He's a seasoned international grappler who has hasn't lost an MMA fight in almost three years of competing all over the world.
In this case, my gut says experience will trump youth.


Prediction: Santos, Submission, Round 1

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Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Fabricio Werdum


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Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports

Division: Heavyweight


Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira is getting old, but that famous resilience keeps him in the game even now. In his last fight, he took revenge on behalf of the entire jiu-jitsu community by submitting Dave "Jiu-jitsu doesn't work" Herman.
And the UFC has dusted off the wildly popular heavyweight for another PR lap across his homeland. He again acquitted himself well as a TUF coach and Saturday fights in Brazil for the third time in his last four contests.
UFC on Fuel 10 will mark a first for Big Nog, though. He's going to lose in that homeland. Countryman Fabricio Werdum is no spring chicken at 35 years old, but he has arguably never looked better.
His standup game is rapidly catching up to his world-champion BJJ, and both will simply be too much for the old lion this Saturday. This is especially true on the feet, where Werdum should outstrike and out-move Nogueira.



Prediction: Werdum, TKO, Round 2