NFL Predictions Week 5: 5 NFL Favorites That Should Be on Upset Alert
 

Are you ready for the list of NFL favorites that should be on upset alert for Week 5?

I bet you are.

But before we get to this week's slate of games, how did last week go?

Well, if you don't want to go back and look at my predictions, let me summarize them for you.

I nailed Buffalo being upset by Cincinnati and held my breath as Detroit came back to beat Dallas.

Miami failed to knock off San Diego in my least confident selection of the week, because as I suggested, the Dolphins' backup cornerbacks couldn't solve Philip Rivers.

St. Louis failed to upset Washington, and I am little bitter about that one because the Rams had their chances to pull out a win.

The game that was totally misread—and I have to take accountability here—is that the Jets failed miserably against the Ravens; simply put, Baltimore's physical defense overwhelmed the Jets' offense.

Well, onto this week with five more favorites that should be on upset alert. Mind you, these are just the five favorites that are most susceptible to taking a fall, not an iron-clad prediction that they will lose.

Re: NFL Predictions Week 5: 5 NFL Favorites That Should Be on Upset Alert
 

http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images...jpg?1317904878 Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

Are you ready for the list of NFL favorites that should be on upset alert for Week 5?
I bet you are.
But before we get to this week's slate of games, how did last week go?
Well, if you don't want to go back and look at my predictions, let me summarize them for you.
I nailed Buffalo being upset by Cincinnati and held my breath as Detroit came back to beat Dallas.
Miami failed to knock off San Diego in my least confident selection of the week, because as I suggested, the Dolphins' backup cornerbacks couldn't solve Philip Rivers.
St. Louis failed to upset Washington, and I am little bitter about that one because the Rams had their chances to pull out a win.
The game that was totally misread—and I have to take accountability here—is that the Jets failed miserably against the Ravens; simply put, Baltimore's physical defense overwhelmed the Jets' offense.
Well, onto this week with five more favorites that should be on upset alert. Mind you, these are just the five favorites that are most susceptible to taking a fall, not an iron-clad prediction that they will lose.


5. San Francisco 49ers




http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images...jpg?1317916401
Rich Schultz/Getty Images



San Francisco (3-1) hosts Tampa Bay (3-1) in a matchup of surprising contenders.


Well, at least the 49ers are surprising contenders, and I think the Buccaneers, currently three-point underdogs, could expose them. The Philadelphia Eagles let San Francisco climb back into a game where they were getting soundly beaten.
The same thing won't happen this week.
Tampa Bay averages somewhere in the ballpark of 31:30 in time of possession, and battering the Niners' defensive line with LeGarrette Blount probably blunts (pun intended) the amount of time San Francisco will have to keep up.
You could also see the Bucs' defenders—Mason Foster, Michael Bennett, Adrian Clayborn and Gerald McCoy—making life very difficult for Niners quarterback Alex Smith.
The bottom line here is that I am skeptical of a San Francisco squad that squeaked by Cincinnati and Philadelphia, and beat a bad Seattle team.
Tampa's schedule has been somewhat questionable as well, but they have at least split games with Atlanta (win) and Detroit (close loss).

Re: NFL Predictions Week 5: 5 NFL Favorites That Should Be on Upset Alert
 

http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images...jpg?1317904878 Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

Are you ready for the list of NFL favorites that should be on upset alert for Week 5?
I bet you are.
But before we get to this week's slate of games, how did last week go?
Well, if you don't want to go back and look at my predictions, let me summarize them for you.
I nailed Buffalo being upset by Cincinnati and held my breath as Detroit came back to beat Dallas.
Miami failed to knock off San Diego in my least confident selection of the week, because as I suggested, the Dolphins' backup cornerbacks couldn't solve Philip Rivers.
St. Louis failed to upset Washington, and I am little bitter about that one because the Rams had their chances to pull out a win.
The game that was totally misread—and I have to take accountability here—is that the Jets failed miserably against the Ravens; simply put, Baltimore's physical defense overwhelmed the Jets' offense.
Well, onto this week with five more favorites that should be on upset alert. Mind you, these are just the five favorites that are most susceptible to taking a fall, not an iron-clad prediction that they will lose.


5. San Francisco 49ers


http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images...jpg?1317916401
Rich Schultz/Getty Images
San Francisco (3-1) hosts Tampa Bay (3-1) in a matchup of surprising contenders.
Well, at least the 49ers are surprising contenders, and I think the Buccaneers, currently three-point underdogs, could expose them. The Philadelphia Eagles let San Francisco climb back into a game where they were getting soundly beaten.
The same thing won't happen this week.
Tampa Bay averages somewhere in the ballpark of 31:30 in time of possession, and battering the Niners' defensive line with LeGarrette Blount probably blunts (pun intended) the amount of time San Francisco will have to keep up.
You could also see the Bucs' defenders—Mason Foster, Michael Bennett, Adrian Clayborn and Gerald McCoy—making life very difficult for Niners quarterback Alex Smith.
The bottom line here is that I am skeptical of a San Francisco squad that squeaked by Cincinnati and Philadelphia, and beat a bad Seattle team.
Tampa's schedule has been somewhat questionable as well, but they have at least split games with Atlanta (win) and Detroit (close loss).


4. Indianapolis Colts


http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images...jpg?1317918685

Marc Serota/Getty Images


Sorry, but there is very little logic to making a winless team a favorite (this is a theme that you will see continued on the next slide).

There is no reason to believe the Colts, a 2.5-point favorite, will break through against the 1-3 Kansas City Chiefs.

Those who read my regular columns know that I think Indianapolis is essentially tanking their season to get a shot at drafting Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck.

I don't think Colts management believes Peyton Manning will return from neck surgery, and they see no better option than to try to go from one franchise signal-caller to possibly another.

On the field, Indianapolis has a mini-quarterback "controversy." Curtis Painter apparently played well enough in a loss to the Buccaneers on Monday night that there is a question of who will start against KC.

There is no controversy because, in reality, neither quarterback belongs in the NFL. Collins' quarterback rating of 65.9 and Painter's 43.9 completion percentage in 41 passes this year are two indicators of their struggles. Look for Kansas City outside linebacker Tamba Hali to get after whoever lines up under center for the Colts.

The biggest reason Indy figures to remain winless is that the Chiefs are just a better football team. Even at 1-3, after getting blown out the first two weeks, Kansas City has been much improved and arguably could be 2-2 if quarterback Matt Cassel doesn't throw a late screen pass right into the hands of San Diego Chargers' defensive back Eric Weddle.

Indianapolis is 28th in the league against the run, surrendering 133 yards per game, which should have Dexter McCluster and Thomas Jones licking their chops with ideas of having a huge day. Indy's pass-defense isn't much better, and Dwayne Bowe and Steve Breaston are talented enough to do damage for the Chiefs.

Re: NFL Predictions Week 5: 5 NFL Favorites That Should Be on Upset Alert
 

3. Minnesota Vikings


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Peter Aiken/Getty Images


Minnesota is another 0-4 team and yet another small favorite (2.5 points), likely because they are home and face another 1-3 team in the Arizona Cardinals.

Once again, I smell a small upset.

The head coach of the Vikings, Leslie Frazier, seems to be the only one aware that quarterback Donovan McNabb doesn't have anything left in the tank and it's time to see what rookie Christian Ponder has under the hood.

McNabb has thrown for the third-fewest amount of yards among all qualifying starting quarterbacks in the NFL (just 680 yards in four games). The most startling indictment of McNabb is that he can't produce even when stud running back Adrian Peterson (81 carries for 376 yards, 4.6 yards per carry) draws eight or nine defenders into the box.

Cracks are starting to show in the Vikings' foundation off the field.

Wide receiver Bernard Berrian got involved in a Twitter spat with a state lawmaker, Rep. John Kriesel.

On the flip side, Arizona arguably got screwed out of a win against New York when Giants receiver Victor Cruz inexplicably let go of the ball only to see it not ruled a fumble.

While new quarterback Kevin Kolb hasn't justified the acquisition price of a second-round pick and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie yet, he also hasn't been awful by any stretch. The Cards' losses have come by one, three and four points, and even on the road they should come through here.

Re: NFL Predictions Week 5: 5 NFL Favorites That Should Be on Upset Alert
 

2. Houston Texans


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Bob Levey/Getty Images

For the record, I like a lot of the big underdogs this week to possibly cover, but not win their games.

I could see Seattle covering against an overrated Giants (favored by 9.5 points) team and the Jets covering against a team they recently matched up well against in New England (a nine-point favorite).

Still, I am looking for favorites that might lose, which brings us to the Houston Texans.

Houston is a good (3-1) squad and on paper probably should beat Oakland (2-2).

But the Texans (a six-point favorite) have a few things working against them.

Star wide receiver Andre Johnson is out after suffering a hamstring injury in the team's 17-10 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Not only is Johnson an effective yards and points-producer for Houston, but he is the entire focus of the team's passing attack.

Now, the Raiders can afford to stack the line to stop Texans running back Adrian Foster, who might be a bit beat up after piling up 30 carries for 155 yards against Pittsburgh. Backup running back Ben Tate left the Steelers game with a groin injury, and his status is uncertain.

On the other side of the ball, the Texans are just 18th against the run (and 10th against the pass, who would have thought that?), surrendering 108.8 yards per game on the ground.

More importantly, I've seen the Texans up close this year and watched them get gashed by Miami running back Daniel Thomas (18 carries for 107 yards in the game). Now they face the NFL's leading rusher in Darren McFadden (75 carries for 468 and three touchdowns). If McFadden has a big game, Houston is in trouble.

Re: NFL Predictions Week 5: 5 NFL Favorites That Should Be on Upset Alert
 

1. Detroit Lions


http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images...jpg?1317917513

Ronald Martinez/Getty Images



I'll be blunt: This is my favorite pick of the week.

The Lions (4-0) are a 5.5-point favorite as they play host to the Bears (2-2).

The Lions are riding high with their newfound celebrity status, and after another stirring comeback the logical question is whether or not they can keep doing it. I don't recall a team coming back from a more than 20-point deficit in consecutive weeks like the Lions have, and I sure don't remember it happening in three straight games.

There are a few more substantial reasons that I like Chicago to upend Detroit.

Bears running back Matt Forte has 634 total yards of offense, and it's almost an even split in his rushing and receiving totals. He's the kind of back who could give Detroit's defense some problems because they don't know how he is going to be used. I can picture the Lions' defensive linemen "pinning their ears back" and going right after quarterback Jay Cutler, but I am not sure that's the answer in this game.

Forte did carry the ball 25 times last week, which is a heavy workload, so he'll have to be used judiciously against the Lions.

The Bears' defense is ranked 31st in the NFL, but they have played against Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton to start the season. It's not as if they are going to be surprised by what Matthew Stafford brings to the table. Lovie Smith has had a little more than a week to prepare for this game, and if any game plan can keep Calvin Johnson from beating a team, I believe Lovie's Bears can come up with one.

Finally, on defense, Ndamukong Suh and the rest of the Lions have gained a lot of attention as a throwback, punishing defense—kind of like the Bears.

Brian Urlacher and company have a lot of pride, and I don't see them surrendering the smash-mouth reputation of the franchise to a division rival so easily.