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Old 26-06-11, 00:30   #1
 
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Default UFC Live: Marquardt vs. Story & Predictions

UFC Live: Marquardt vs. Story Bleacher Report MMA Staff Predictions











The fourth addition of UFC on Versus Live will feature a fantastic main event, as Rick Story looks to stake his claim as a legit contender at 170 pounds as he takes on former top-tier middleweight Nate Marquardt.
Story is fresh off a win over Thiago Alves at UFC 130, and looks to prove it was no fluke by taking a tough test in Marquardt with less than a month of down time.
Marquardt has won two of his last three, and five of his last seven, and will be making his career debut at 170 pounds on UFC Live.
Nate "The Great" claims that he feels stronger, faster and has more stamina as a welterweight, but after losing to top-10 middleweights Yushin Okami and Chael Sonnen, fans have to wonder if Marquardt is just grasping at straws for one last title run before he retires.
Fans also get to enjoy what should be a slugfest between two hard-hitting heavyweights when Cheick Kongo takes on Pat Berry.
Additionally, Matt Brown will square off against John Howard in what is likely to be a "loser leaves town" fight, and Matt Mitrione will battle Christian Morecraft to decide which heavyweight remains relevant in the UFC's 265-pound division.
This time around, the Bleacher Report MMA Staff will be represented by Dana Becker (10 for 15), Jordy McElroy (6 for 10), Dale De Souza (6 for 10), Sean Smith (4 for 5) and me, John Heinis (10 for 15).


Take a look inside to see what our panel had to say about this free UFC card.
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Old 26-06-11, 00:32   #2
 
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Default Re: UFC Live: Marquardt vs. Story & Predictions

Christian Morecraft vs. Matt Mitrione








John Heinis



Matt "Meathead" Mitrione is 4-0 as a professional fighter, but unfortunately for him, he is best known for beating Kimbo Slice.
That is the short way of saying that Mitrione is yet to face a real challenge yet in the UFC.
Mitrione is looking past a feud with a way-past-his-prime Tito Ortiz and looking to focus on fighting legitimate competition in the heavyweight division.
The former NFL-er is a decent wrestler that has power with his hands, and doesn't mind if the fight stays on the ground for a little while as his jiu-jitsu skills are at least adequate.
His opponent, Christian Morecraft, is another heavyweight with a ton of potential; however, no one is really sure where his ceiling is as a fighter.
Morecraft started off his career with seven straight wins, and looked strong as he punished Stefan Struve in the first round of their August 2010 brawl.
As most folks reading know, Struve came back to knock out Morecraft in the second round.
While Morecraft is no easy win, Mitrione has heavier hands and at least equivalent jiu-jitsu skills to his adversary. I like Mitrione to get the knockout here.

Mitrione by KO in Round 2

Dana Becker

Since his time on The Ultimate Fighter, Matt Mitrione has become a potential heavyweight contender.
Mitrione (4-0) was seen as an all-talk and no-show guy on the series, but, since scoring a knockout victory over Marcus Jones, the former Purdue football player has become a force.
Following the win over Jones, "Meathead" downed Kimbo Slice by TKO, followed that up with a decision victory over Joey Beltran and topped Tim Hague with a series of first-round punches.
After switching camps from Integrated Fighting Academy to Roufusport, the ex-New York Giant and Minnesota Viking has shown a sense of finishing ability and smarts, making sure to only go in for the kill when the time is right.
Morecraft (7-1) rebounded from his first career loss to Stefan Struve by submitting Sean McCorkle in March. With three knockout wins and four submission victories, the younger Morecraft presents a challenge to Mitrione.
I feel like Mitrione's ability to wait for an opening in the striking department will make the difference, as he will not allow Morecraft to lock in a submission attempt.

Mitrione via Second-Round TKO

Dale De Souza

Christian Morecraft is a surprising name in that he nearly defeated Stefan Struve in his first fight, only to lose 22 seconds into the second round, and then he rebounded with a second-round submission win over Sean McCorkle.
Meanwhile, Matt Mitrione has defeated the likes of Tim Hague and Joey Beltran in his last few fights, and one has to think that a win for Mitrione will be the big break that "Meathead" deserved a long time ago, and likewise, Morecraft's stock will have to rise impressively if he gains a decisive victory over Mitrione.

Mitrione is a four-fight veteran, and Morecraft will be coming into his ninth career fight against MItrione, but every opponent Mitrione has faced so far has been more experienced than he, and they all have fallen.

Expect the stand-up game of Mitrione to be in full effect this Sunday as he drops Morecraft with a big left hand and takes another step towards the "mix" at 265 pounds.


Matt Mitrione by R1 TKO


Jordy McElroy

Besides a catchy nickname, Christian "World of" Morecraft is mostly remembered for turning Stefan Struve’s face into a concoction reminiscent of a Rachel Ray bread pudding.
Against Matt Mitrione, he’ll face a much more athletic and hardened striker.
This should be a fun stand-up fight for fans, but don’t be surprised if Morecraft reverts to grappling mode after being on the wrong end of some exchanges.
Unfortunately for Morecraft, Mitrione will have just enough wrestling to shrug off takedowns and pick up the first-round TKO.

Mitrione by First-Round TKO

Sean Smith

Mitrione's stock has risen quickly in the first four fights of his MMA career, to the point where many believed he should have received a bigger name than Morecraft for his fifth fight in the UFC.
Another potential contender in the heavyweight division, Morecraft has the potential to provide a big test for Mitrione, though. Morecraft's only loss in his eight-fight career came after getting into an unnecessary exchange in the second round of his fight with Stefan Struve.
Morecraft had dominated Struve in the first round of that fight, and I would argue Morecraft could defeat Struve nine times out of 10. Still, Morecraft will be facing a fighter with even heavier hands than Struve when he fights Mitrione.
Unless Morecraft can repeatedly put Mitrione's back on the canvas and work some ground-and-pound, he is likely going to have his chin tested once again in this fight.
After coming out strong in the first round once again, Morecraft's pace will slow and Mitrione will take advantage with a second-round stoppage.

Mitrione by Technical Knockout in the Second Round
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Old 26-06-11, 00:33   #3
 
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Default Re: UFC Live: Marquardt vs. Story & Predictions

Matt Brown vs. John Howard








John Heinis
I find it funny that "The Immortal" Matt Brown is only 30 years old. His 11-10 record has come about since he either finishes his opponent, or gets finished.
Brown is well on his way to making Chael Sonnen look like a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu prodigy, as eight of his 10 losses have been via submission.
Every move Brown has tapped to has been basic stuff too, like an armbar, guillotine, rear naked choke or arm triangle.
John Howard is tough as nails, but finds his UFC career in jeopardy after getting embarrassed by Jake Ellenberger, and soundly defeated by Thiago Alves.
"Doomsday" is tough as nails, so there is no way a guy like Brown can end his night early. While Howard isn't the most polished fighter at 170 pounds, his purple belt in BJJ will be all it takes to keep his career in the UFC afloat.

John Howard via Second-Round Submission

Dana Becker
It doesn't take too long for Dana White or Joe Silva to give you a ring saying that you have been released after dropping three straight fights.
Which is why it is pretty crazy that Matt Brown will get a chance to snap that skid inside the cage when he meets John Howard.
Brown (11-10) started out on The Ultimate Fighter and looked poised to become a solid contender. He won his UFC debut, before falling to Dong Hyun Kim.
Brown proceeded to pick up three straight victories, including two by TKO, but is now sitting on a three-fight losing skid, all of which have come by second-round submission.
This could be a defining moment in the career of Brown, as he faces another very big challenge on Howard.
Howard (14-6) probably feels like he is in a must-win position as well, dropping two straight fights to Jake Ellenberger and Thiago Alves. Prior to those bouts, though, Howard had earned seven consecutive wins.
With both guys feeling the pressure, you can expect each to come out swinging for the fences. Howard has shown a little more of a complete, all-around game, earning four KO wins and six submission victories.

Howard via First-Round TKO

Dale De Souza
"The Immortal" Matt Brown is a veteran of The Ultimate Fighter 7 and something of a crowd favorite, gaining pre-UFC wins over the likes of Douglas Lima and Matt Arroyo, as well as notable UFC wins over Pete Sell and James Wilks, but the win over Wilks was followed by a three-fight skid against Ricardo Almeida, Chris Lytle and Brian Foster, and a release was thought to be in the cards for Brown after the loss to Foster.

Apparently, that is not the case, as Brown has stepped in for an injured Martin Kampmann to take on John Howard, who is an exciting fighter in his own right and also on a skid after losses to Jake Ellenberger and Thiago Alves.

Brown is a durable fighter and can be very aggressive at times, but strong grapplers and skilled fighters with notable ground games all have been bad news for Brown in the past, and Brown can expect no different from Howardd, who is one of the the more durable grapplers at 170.

Brown may have worked on his jiu-jitsu game for Howard, though, and if that is the case, this one could go all three rounds.

However, Brown will try his heart out to no avail, as the fight will clearly belong to Howard for all three rounds—Brown will not tap.


John Howard by Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)


Jordy McElroy
Matt Brown is miraculously back in the mix after being submitted in his last three UFC bouts.
With John Howard also coming off consecutive losses, the loser of this bout will likely be receiving a swift boot from the UFC roster.
Brown has shown solid Muay Thai skills and devastating knees from the clinch. His struggles have come to aggressive opposition with the option of putting the bout on the floor.
Howard isn’t the most well-rounded welterweight out there, but his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu is vastly underrated.
Brown may have his moments on the feet, but everything will go downhill when the scrappy stand-up exchanges turn into a ground tussle.
Look for Howard to latch on a second-round guillotine to hand "The Immortal" one his walking papers.

Howard via Second-Round Submission (Guillotine)

Sean Smith
Since Brown has lost three straight fights and Howard has lost two in a row, it is fairly clear that the loser of this fight will no longer be fighting in the UFC. Sometimes that can bring the best out in a fighter, while other times they can allow the nerves to get to them.
While Brown has been submitted in his last three fights by middle-of-the-road welterweights, Howard has gone the distance with perennial contender Thiago Alves and was forced out of a fight with top-10 welterweight Jake Ellenberger due to a doctor stoppage in the third round.
Clearly, Howard has had more learning experiences to gain from his losses than Brown.
Howard will have the chance to display his improvements in this fight, which could end in Brown's fourth straight loss by submission in the second round.

Howard Defeats Brown by Submission in the Second Round
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Old 26-06-11, 00:34   #4
 
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Default Re: UFC Live: Marquardt vs. Story & Predictions

Cheick Kongo vs. Pat Berry








John Heinis
A lot of folks are expecting a stand-up war in this one, but those people have not heard that Pat Barry has been training his wrestling and jiu-jitsu like a madman at team DeathClutch.
This was a much-needed change for "HD" (hype or die), as the former K1 fighter has shown absolutely no ground skills in the past.
The same can be said for Cheick Kongo, and while his wrestling has improved, it is still nothing to get excited about.
Kongo's weak grappling game was exposed by Frank Mir and Cain Velasquez respectively in 2009, and he has done nothing to raise his stock since then after a very lackluster win over Paul Buentello and a draw against Travis Browne.
The draw against Browne was total BS, as Kongo grabbed Brown's shorts the entire round and should have lost the decision at best.
While Kongo's kickboxing is nothing to sneeze at, he is an extremely one-dimensional fighter and I feel that Barry will be able to exploit that.

Barry via Unanimous Decision

Dana Becker
Cheick Kongo seemed poised to make a run at the heavyweight title in early 2009.
Coming off of three straight wins and five victories in his previous six fights, Kongo (15-6-2) was paired up with Cain Velasquez. After going three rounds, though, it was the current UFC Heavyweight Champion that came out on top on all three scorecards.
It didn't get any easier for Kongo, as he lost his next fight to former champion Frank Mir by submission. A submission victory of his own over Paul Buentello followed, but a draw with Travis Browne is how everyone last saw Kongo.
Now, Kongo must find a way to avoid the heavy hands of Pat Barry (6-2), who owns five career KO wins.
Barry is coming off a decision victory over Joey Beltran, a fight in which he was in control throughout. Now, the training partner of Matt Mitrione is working on putting himself in a spot Kongo once held.
While Kongo's reach could be a factor—he holds a near six-inch advantage—Barry's power will make it useless as long as he can get inside of it.

Barry via Split Decision

Dale De Souza
This is the type of affair you dream about—two very strong-willed kickboxers who might make an attempt or two to take people down every once in a while, but for the most part, it's their well-rounded striking abilities that serve as the "takedowns" to expect.

Cheick Kongo has shown recently a willingness to post his opponents up against the cage and wear them out before implementing his striking game, and the judges' scorecards did claim that had a point not been deducted for grabbing the shorts of the opponent, Kongo would have won a unanimous decision against Travis Browne.

However, Kongo has never faced a striker that could crush his anatomical structure with one kick the way Pat Barry can.

Barry's hands have been used somewhat in moderation as he's been cautious about letting them go ever since his bout with Mirko "Cro Cop" Filopovic, but to be fair to Barry, the fight with Beltran was his first fight back since the Cro Cop fight, and we all should have expected him to be somewhat cautious with his hands after his showing against Cro Cop.

I would expect Barry to come in and throw the cleaner, more effective power strikes while Kongo opts to be the kickboxing technician, likely looking to come forward with the quicker combinations and also looking to pin Barry against the cage.

However, one must never doubt the abilities of a Roufusport fighter—especially one that has trained at DeathClutch in preparation for this fight.

Kongo is a good striker, but Pat Barry will prove to be the more efficient stand-up machine once again, and that will spell doom for the legs of the French kickboxing sensation.


Pat Barry by R3 TKO (Leg Kicks)


Jordy McElroy
Once upon a time, Cheick Kongo was considered to be one of the most fierce strikers in the heavyweight division. Unfortunately, those days are dead and gone.
Kongo now relies on his decent wrestling skills to grind out rounds with clinch knees against the cage. He’ll need this tactic against Pat Barry, a K-1-level kickboxer with a knack for decapitating lower limbs.
As long as Barry keeps his distance, he should be able to land on the outside and circle off when Kongo comes forward.
The main problem for Barry will be Kongo’s persistence in seeking the clinch and securing a takedown. On top, Kongo has been known to crack skulls with his sword-like elbows.
Barry’s scrappy nature should negate any firm position for Kongo to settle and go Lord of the Rings on him, but the large Frenchman will ride out the majority of the clock from dominant positions to sway the minds of the judges.

Barry by Unanimous Decision

Sean Smith
A great job of matchmaking by Joe Silva here, as two of the most feared strikers in the heavyweight division are sure to slug it out in the co-main event.
While a majority of each fighter's wins have resulted from knockouts, few of their finishes have come against competition at each other's level of striking. Also, both fighters have pretty solid chins, so this one has the potential to go the distance.
Expect a fast pace to start the fight, which will favor Barry in the first round. However, both fighters have had the tendency to tire as a fight goes on. Even some of the best strikers in MMA have resorted to taking their fights to the ground when running low on energy and that could be the case as this fight progresses.
He's no Cain Velasquez when it comes to wrestling, but Kongo certainly has better takedowns than Barry and he will look to use them when he realizes he is the slower fighter to the punch (or kick).
It won't be as exciting as many fans would have hoped, but Kongo will use ground-and-pound to escape with a narrow decision victory.

Kongo Defeats Barry by Unanimous Decision
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Old 26-06-11, 00:35   #5
 
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Default Re: UFC Live: Marquardt vs. Story & Predictions

Nate Marquardt vs. Rick Story








John Heinis

If you're not impressed with Rick Story at this point, I'd like to know which up-and-comer at 170 pounds you'd put your stock in.
Another former college wrestling standout who has found success in MMA, the "Horror" Story's MO has become smooth takedowns, quality striking and an iron jaw.
Nate Marquardt is no stranger to the big stage...but he is really not used to pulling through on the big stage.
Nate "The Great" got smashed by middleweight champion Anderson Silva back in 2007, which realistically is nothing to be ashamed of, but also lost two title eliminator fights at 185 since then.
I'm a bit puzzled by Marquardt's drop to 170...if he really feels that much better at this weight, why can't he accept the fact he will more than likely have to fight friend and teammate Georges St-Pierre if his title run goes successfully?
To be quite honest, I feel like too many analysts are picking Nate for this fight. He hasn't won a major fight in literally years, and has struggled against quality wrestlers in the past.
The only thing working in Nate's favor is experience and rest time, as Story is filling on a month's notice as Anthony Johnson, almost predictably, managed to get hurt in training camp again.
Story's chin will stand up to whatever strikes Marquardt dishes out, and will overwhelm with his rock-solid ground game.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Story finish here, but I'll be conservative and say this one goes to the score cards.

Story by Unanimous Decision

Dana Becker
Personally, I really wanted to see the original main event of Anthony Johnson taking on Nate Marquardt to see if Johnson really does have what it takes to be a contender.
But, a rotator cuff injury knocked "Rumble" out, and Rick Story made sure to pounce on the opportunity to main-event a card.
Story (13-3) is less than a month removed from his unanimous-decision victory over former contender Thiago Alves at UFC 130. Outside of a late display of punching by Alves, Story showed why he is a fast-climbing star by outworking Alves.
Since a loss to John Hathaway in 2009, Story has reeled off six straight wins. Prior to that loss to Hathaway, "The Horror" had won six fights in a row as well, so winning is something he is quite used to doing.
Marquardt (31-10) is making his debut at welterweight, after competing as a middleweight in the UFC and even fighting champion Anderson Silva for the belt.
Since his title opportunity, Marquardt has had an up-and-down career, going 5-3. He had worked himself back into contention by winning three straight, but a loss to Chael Sonnen sent "The Great" back to the drawing board.
Overall, Marquardt is going to be a huge welterweight, as his body is very top-heavy. His power will be more than Story has ever seen, forcing Story to use a hit-and-run type of attack.
Taking the fight on short notice may actually help Story, as he showed he is in great condition from his bout with Alves and can take some punches and keep going.

Story via Split Decision

Dale De Souza
The question isn't whether or not Nate "The Great" Marquardt can blast Rick "The Horror" Story with a lethal right hand or a flying knee; it's not a question of whether or not Nate Marquardt can take the fight to the ground and work his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu against Story.

In the minds of most fans, Marquardt can and presumably will easily handle Story, but the question is not whether Marquardt can KO or submit Story.

The question is will he be able to retain his finishing skills after making the cut to welterweight against the man who replaced his original foe?

Story is coming off of the biggest win of his career to date against Thiago Alves, and he took the fight with Marquardt on short notice after an injury forced Anthony Johnson out of action.

Perhaps the game plan for Story is the same one Marquardt had in store for Johnson, and perhaps it is not, but Story has been riding a supersonic momentum train ever since his only UFC loss to John Hathaway and that momentum will elevate in another shocker at the expense of the Greg Jackson veteran.

Will Nate Marquardt look terrible at 170 pounds?

Absolutely not.

As a matter of fact, I would expect Story's heart and his durability as a fighter to be the only things keeping him from getting finished by Marquardt, who might win the first two rounds.

With that said, though, will Story still find a way to beat Nate Marquardt before the end of the third round—knocking him out and getting the win in the process?

You can bet your bottom dollar on it.

Rick Story by R3 KO (Punches)

Jordy McElroy
After a turbulent run at middleweight, Nate Marquardt has decided to drop to the welterweight division. While Marquardt will enjoy a nice size advantage over most of his opposition, his drop to 170 pounds won’t cure his wrestling woes.
He tends to struggle when his opponents are constantly pushing the action on the feet and mixing things up with takedowns.
Unfortunately for Marquardt, that description fits Rick Story to a tee. Story is coming off two colossal victories over Thiago Alves and Johny Hendricks.
There may be skeptics, but Story continues to prove himself as a world-class fighter.
Marquardt has the skill set to defeat any fighter in the welterweight division, but his tendency to shut down against strong wrestlers makes this a tough bout to predict.
A betting man should definitely consider picking up Story, but I’ll take my plunge like the majority and choose Marquardt in a close unanimous decision.

Marquardt via Unanimous Decision

Sean Smith
Marquardt will have an excellent opportunity to make an immediate impact in the welterweight division at UFC on Versus 4, but it won't come easily against Story.
Story is a fighter who possesses the exact fighting style that gave Marquardt fits in his last two losses at middleweight.
Taking this fight may not have been the best decision by Story, who is coming off of a hard-fought win over Thiago Alves at UFC 129.
However, Marquardt may be equally drained heading into this fight after cutting to 170 pounds for the first time.
Marquardt has excellent power in his strikes, but Story has developed a granite chin and his wrestling is strong enough to level the playing field when it comes to Marquardt's size advantage.
While Marquardt is the much more experienced fighter, Story has showed a steep learning curve. The 26-year-old Story has shown improvement with every fight, while Marquardt has likely reached his peak as a fighter.
Story does an excellent job of mixing in takedowns after pressuring his opponents with his striking power, which is the perfect strategy to defeat Marquardt and move one step closer to a welterweight title shot.

Story Defeats Marquardt by Unanimous Decision
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