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Old 05-10-11, 19:29   #1
 
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Default NFL Odds: Super Bowl Odds for Each NFL Team After 4 Weeks


Matt Ludtke/Getty Images



Are you looking to throw away a lot of money without the hastle of burning it or dragging it down to the end of your driveway? Then you should seriously consider going to Las Vegas this weekend and letting your life savings ride on the NFL team of your choice.
The NFL is a week-by-week league and perception changes dramatically. Here's how I would adjust each team's Super Bowl odds after a wild Week 4.
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Old 05-10-11, 19:31   #2
 
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Default Re: NFL Odds: Super Bowl Odds for Each NFL Team After 4 Weeks

Arizona Cardinals: 80-1






Christian Petersen/Getty Images


The Cardinals have the 27th-ranked pass defense in the league, and have allowed opponents to gain 94 first downs. They are in the negatives in turnover ratio, and are losing the time of possession battle by a small bit as well.
It doesn't matter if you have Larry Fitzgerald running deep if you can't stop the pass. Considering the Cardinals' best secondary player was shipped off to Philadelphia for Kevin Kolb, the odds of those pass defense numbers getting any better are pretty slim.
Their odds of making the Super Bowl are even slimmer.
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Old 05-10-11, 19:32   #3
 
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Default Re: NFL Odds: Super Bowl Odds for Each NFL Team After 4 Weeks

Atlanta Falcons: 50-1




Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images


The Falcons went 13-3 last year with a strong offensive identity and solid defense. The defense has been less than solid this year and the offense, well, has changed their identity. Personally, I think it's for the worse.
Michael Turner works great within a ball-control offense, but the Falcons seem to be more interested in feeding Julio Jones and Roddy White at the moment. It hasn't exactly paid off.
If they go back to the "run the ball, stop the run" style from last year, they can still be a good team. Even if Ray Edwards it's a bust (told ya so).
I say 60-1 odds are fair for the Falcons.
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Old 05-10-11, 19:35   #4
 
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Default Re: NFL Odds: Super Bowl Odds for Each NFL Team After 4 Weeks

Baltimore Ravens: 18-1




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Joe Flacco, Ray Rice, Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. Those are players I would not want to see lined up across from my team.
So far, the Ravens have had one off game in Week 2, but otherwise have played very well. They have the offensive players to score quickly and the pass rush to play from ahead and build their leads off of turnovers.
I'm usually a big believer in the Steelers, but the Ravens look like the better team so far this year, and I'd consider them a Top 5 squad overall.
Overall Odds: 18-1
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Old 05-10-11, 19:37   #5
 
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Default Re: NFL Odds: Super Bowl Odds for Each NFL Team After 4 Weeks

Buffalo Bills: 30-1



Andy Lyons/Getty Images

The Bills started the season out extremely strong, winning their first three games in a dramatic fashion. After losing Week 4 in a dramatic fashion to the Bengals, their Vegas odds have taken a hit.
They can be very effective on offense, with not only an effective passing game but also a nice runner in Fred Jackson. The question is their defense, especially in the passing game.
That's not a good question to have.
Overall Odds: 30-1
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Old 05-10-11, 19:39   #6
 
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Default Re: NFL Odds: Super Bowl Odds for Each NFL Team After 4 Weeks

Carolina Panthers: 100-1






Scott Cunningham/Getty Images


I know that the NFL is a passing league, but really, you still need a good overall team effort to win games. Unfortunately for the Panthers, they don't have a good team.
Their offensive line is doing a great job of pass protecting, but they've become enamored of Cam Newton's arm and are completely one-dimensional on offense. It's not a good thing, because playoff quality teams, especially if they catch a whiff of January, will have the players to stop the one thing a bad team does best.
It also doesn't help that they're currently 1-3.
Overall Odds: 100-1
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Old 05-10-11, 19:41   #7
 
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Default Re: NFL Odds: Super Bowl Odds for Each NFL Team After 4 Weeks

Chicago Bears: 35-1




Wesley Hitt/Getty Images


The Bears and Bills are kind of the opposite sides of the same coin. The Bills have strong offense and a questionable defense. The Bears have a strong defense powered by Julius Peppers, and no passing game.

Seriously, their only offensive weapon to help Jay Cutler is Matt Forte. Forte leads the team in receptions and rushed for over 200 yards and a touchdown during Week 4. Of course, good teams can stop a running back, and if teams can stop Forte, the Bears defense likely isn't dominant enough to keep the hounds away forever.

I'd say this team has a 35-1 chance of taking home the Lombardi Trophy in January of 2012.
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Old 05-10-11, 19:42   #8
 
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Default Re: NFL Odds: Super Bowl Odds for Each NFL Team After 4 Weeks

Cincinnati Bengals: 60-1




John Grieshop/Getty Images


The Bengals' win over the Bills on Sunday has done a lot to change public perception of the team. Admittedly, I'm a little biased because the Bengals were my preseason pick for "worst record in the league."
At 2-2, I'm thinking the Bengals will not get the No. 1 pick in 2012. Still, I'm not sure that I can take the team seriously with Andy Dalton as QB. I loved the guy coming out of the draft, but am not sure that he has the arm or the decision-making ability at this point in his career to lead the Bengals to the playoffs, much less the Super Bowl.
Overall Odds: 60-1
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Old 05-10-11, 19:45   #9
 
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Default Re: NFL Odds: Super Bowl Odds for Each NFL Team After 4 Weeks

Matt Ludtke/Getty Images

Are you looking to throw away a lot of money without the hastle of burning it or dragging it down to the end of your driveway? Then you should seriously consider going to Las Vegas this weekend and letting your life savings ride on the NFL team of your choice.
The NFL is a week-by-week league and perception changes dramatically. Here's how I would adjust each team's Super Bowl odds after a wild Week 4.


Arizona Cardinals: 80-1



Christian Petersen/Getty Images
The Cardinals have the 27th-ranked pass defense in the league, and have allowed opponents to gain 94 first downs. They are in the negatives in turnover ratio, and are losing the time of possession battle by a small bit as well.
It doesn't matter if you have Larry Fitzgerald running deep if you can't stop the pass. Considering the Cardinals' best secondary player was shipped off to Philadelphia for Kevin Kolb, the odds of those pass defense numbers getting any better are pretty slim.
Their odds of making the Super Bowl are even slimmer.
Overall Odds: 125-1


Atlanta Falcons: 50-1



Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images
The Falcons went 13-3 last year with a strong offensive identity and solid defense. The defense has been less than solid this year and the offense, well, has changed their identity. Personally, I think it's for the worse.
Michael Turner works great within a ball-control offense, but the Falcons seem to be more interested in feeding Julio Jones and Roddy White at the moment. It hasn't exactly paid off.
If they go back to the "run the ball, stop the run" style from last year, they can still be a good team. Even if Ray Edwards it's a bust (told ya so).
I say 60-1 odds are fair for the Falcons.


Baltimore Ravens: 18-1



Larry French/Getty Images
Joe Flacco, Ray Rice, Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. Those are players I would not want to see lined up across from my team.
So far, the Ravens have had one off game in Week 2, but otherwise have played very well. They have the offensive players to score quickly and the pass rush to play from ahead and build their leads off of turnovers.
I'm usually a big believer in the Steelers, but the Ravens look like the better team so far this year, and I'd consider them a Top 5 squad overall.
Overall Odds: 18-1


Buffalo Bills: 30-1



Andy Lyons/Getty Images
The Bills started the season out extremely strong, winning their first three games in a dramatic fashion. After losing Week 4 in a dramatic fashion to the Bengals, their Vegas odds have taken a hit.
They can be very effective on offense, with not only an effective passing game but also a nice runner in Fred Jackson. The question is their defense, especially in the passing game.
That's not a good question to have.
Overall Odds: 30-1


Carolina Panthers: 100-1



Scott Cunningham/Getty Images
I know that the NFL is a passing league, but really, you still need a good overall team effort to win games. Unfortunately for the Panthers, they don't have a good team.
Their offensive line is doing a great job of pass protecting, but they've become enamored of Cam Newton's arm and are completely one-dimensional on offense. It's not a good thing, because playoff quality teams, especially if they catch a whiff of January, will have the players to stop the one thing a bad team does best.
It also doesn't help that they're currently 1-3.
Overall Odds: 100-1


Chicago Bears: 35-1



Wesley Hitt/Getty Images
The Bears and Bills are kind of the opposite sides of the same coin. The Bills have strong offense and a questionable defense. The Bears have a strong defense powered by Julius Peppers, and no passing game.
Seriously, their only offensive weapon to help Jay Cutler is Matt Forte. Forte leads the team in receptions and rushed for over 200 yards and a touchdown during Week 4. Of course, good teams can stop a running back, and if teams can stop Forte, the Bears defense likely isn't dominant enough to keep the hounds away forever.
I'd say this team has a 35-1 chance of taking home the Lombardi Trophy in January of 2012.


Cincinnati Bengals: 60-1



John Grieshop/Getty Images
The Bengals' win over the Bills on Sunday has done a lot to change public perception of the team. Admittedly, I'm a little biased because the Bengals were my preseason pick for "worst record in the league."
At 2-2, I'm thinking the Bengals will not get the No. 1 pick in 2012. Still, I'm not sure that I can take the team seriously with Andy Dalton as QB. I loved the guy coming out of the draft, but am not sure that he has the arm or the decision-making ability at this point in his career to lead the Bengals to the playoffs, much less the Super Bowl.
Overall Odds: 60-1


Cleveland Browns: 75-1




Matt Sullivan/Getty Images


The Browns are an improving team. They are strong up front on offense, and Colt McCoy is benefiting from the extra protection. They can run the ball, and they can do a decent job of slowing down opponents' air attacks, but the Browns are still essentially the Browns, and showed it in an embarrassing home blowout against Tennessee.

This team also resides in a division that's always tough if you're not the Steelers or Ravens, and the Bengals are proving to be a competent team as well.

Doesn't look good for the poor Browns' chances.

Overall Odds: 75-1
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Old 05-10-11, 19:46   #10
 
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Default Re: NFL Odds: Super Bowl Odds for Each NFL Team After 4 Weeks

Cleveland Browns: 75-1




Matt Sullivan/Getty Images


The Browns are an improving team. They are strong up front on offense, and Colt McCoy is benefiting from the extra protection. They can run the ball, and they can do a decent job of slowing down opponents' air attacks, but the Browns are still essentially the Browns, and showed it in an embarrassing home blowout against Tennessee.

This team also resides in a division that's always tough if you're not the Steelers or Ravens, and the Bengals are proving to be a competent team as well.

Doesn't look good for the poor Browns' chances.

Overall Odds: 75-1
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Old 05-10-11, 19:48   #11
 
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Default Re: NFL Odds: Super Bowl Odds for Each NFL Team After 4 Weeks

Dallas Cowboys: 45-1




Ronald Martinez/Getty Images


The Cowboys do have some talent. Not a ton of it, but enough talent to get into the playoffs. The odds of that happening, however, are dependent upon the play of the defense.

Tiny Romo can lead an offense, but if he's constantly faced with high-pressure, go-win-us-the-game situations. He sometimes even tosses away games where the Cowboys hold big leads. He fails as often as he succeeds. That's why Romo is not considered an elite QB.
Overall Odds: 45-1
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Old 05-10-11, 19:50   #12
 
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Default Re: NFL Odds: Super Bowl Odds for Each NFL Team After 4 Weeks

Denver Broncos: 100-1




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I wouldn't quite call the Broncos dysfunctional yet, but they are getting there. Tebow made one play in Week 4 and that's the biggest story the national media latches on to.
People within the Broncos organization are going to have to cave to Tebow chants eventually, and it won't be pretty when they do.
Basically, the Broncos aren't even relevant in the Super Bowl discussion.
Overall Odds: 100-1
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Old 05-10-11, 19:51   #13
 
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Default Re: NFL Odds: Super Bowl Odds for Each NFL Team After 4 Weeks

Detroit Lions: 13-1




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The Lions are close to being a legitimate contender this year. Still, I can't give them a full endorsement. Theirs is the kind of defense that doesn't step up and make plays in key situations. When the game was on the line during Week 4, they couldn't get a stop. They had to fight back against the Vikings in Week 3 and the same was true against the Cowboys in Week 4.
They're a good team, but it would still surprise me to see the Lions come out on top.
Overall Odds: 20-1
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Old 05-10-11, 19:53   #14
 
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Default Re: NFL Odds: Super Bowl Odds for Each NFL Team After 4 Weeks

Green Bay Packers: 7-1




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The Packers were the preseason favorites to win the Super Bowl, according to some online betting sites. As a football fan, I agree. Especially after seeing what Aaron Rodgers did last week. Four hundred-plus yards passing and six total touchdowns. Wow!
The Packers are every bit as potent on offense this year as they were last year, and their defense is still playing effectively. They were the No. 1 in my power rankings Monday, so they'll top this list as well.
Overall Odds: 7-1
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Old 05-10-11, 19:54   #15
 
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Default Re: NFL Odds: Super Bowl Odds for Each NFL Team After 4 Weeks

Houston Texans: 15-1




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The Texans have been looking really strong so far in the 2011 season. They've beaten some very good teams and are battling with the Titans for the top spot in the AFC South. If I had to call it right now, I'd imagine that the Texans will come out of that little matchup on top.
Mario Williams fits well as the designated pass-rusher for the team's 3-4 and the offense has a lot of strong pieces. Losing Andre Johnson doesn't help their odds at all, however.
Still, the Texans are a 15-1 Super Bowl bet.
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Old 05-10-11, 19:55   #16
 
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Default Re: NFL Odds: Super Bowl Odds for Each NFL Team After 4 Weeks

Indianapolis Colts: 200-1




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Look, we all know that the Colts are going to manage maybe two wins this year if Peyton Manning doesn't get back on the field. The team hasn't ruled out Peyton's return, which is currently scheduled for mid-December or so.
Of course, just as likely is that Peyton's injury will wind up being a career-ender. With no one to take Peyton's place, they don't stand a chance of making the playoffs or the Super Bowl. This one just ain't gonna happen. The odds are infinitely small. Or said another way...
Overall Odds: "one for each star in the sky"-1
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Old 05-10-11, 19:59   #17
 
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Default Re: NFL Odds: Super Bowl Odds for Each NFL Team After 4 Weeks

Jacksonville Jaguars: 100-1



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The Jaguars essentially gave up on the 2011 season when they decided to start Luke McCown. McCown was never going to last past the first few weeks of the season, and breaking in a new starting QB is not a good plan if you're trying to make the playoffs.
Fans in Jacksonville will enjoy watching Gabbert progress throughout the year. They won't enjoy missing the playoffs.
Overall Odds: 100-1
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Old 05-10-11, 20:03   #18
 
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Default Re: NFL Odds: Super Bowl Odds for Each NFL Team After 4 Weeks

Kansas City Chiefs: 100-1




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100-1 odds are my subtle way of saying "it's not going to happen." Kansas City has been sucked dry by the injury bug this season. They managed a win in spite of a terrible rushing performance from Thomas Jones, mostly because Ryan Succop hit five field goals.
Yup, the only game they've won is on the strength of their kicker. Not a good sign.
Odds: 100-1
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Old 05-10-11, 20:05   #19
 
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Default Re: NFL Odds: Super Bowl Odds for Each NFL Team After 4 Weeks

Miami Dolphins: 125-1




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The Dolphins are another one of those teams that just doesn't have the talent. Matt Moore is now challenging for the starting quarterback spot. When that happens, it means you have nobody good under center. Just ask the Panthers. Pair that with an 0-4 start and you are not looking at a team that's going to make waves in the postseason.
Overall Odds: 125-1
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Old 05-10-11, 20:06   #20
 
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Default Re: NFL Odds: Super Bowl Odds for Each NFL Team After 4 Weeks

Minnesota Vikings: 125-1




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It's odd that the last four teams (in alphabetical order) have all been teams without a legitimate shot to make the playoffs. I calls 'em like I sees 'em, though.
The Vikings have done just enough to make themselves look like terrible chokers and failures for the first four weeks of the season. There's no reason to believe that that trend won't continue, and there's every reason to believe that the Vikings are not headed to the Super Bowl any time soon.
Overall Odds: 125-1
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Old 05-10-11, 20:07   #21
 
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Default Re: NFL Odds: Super Bowl Odds for Each NFL Team After 4 Weeks

New England Patriots: 13-1




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I'm putting the Patriots lower than I think most people would for this prediction. Why? Because I looked at their pass-defense numbers.
The Patriots are allowing more passing yards per game than about half of the teams have allowed total yards per game.
That said, the Pats offense is untouchable. Brady to Welker is a sure thing every game, and the team is not going to drop from the top spot in the AFC in my book until the Ravens have a better record than the Pats.
Both teams get 13-1 odds.
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Old 05-10-11, 20:08   #22
 
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Default Re: NFL Odds: Super Bowl Odds for Each NFL Team After 4 Weeks

New Orleans Saints: 10-1




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I'm starting to think that the Super Bowl winner will be from the NFC. Given the Pats' struggles in defending the pass, the best two teams in the league are now Green Bay and New Orleans.
I'm giving the edge to Green Bay, because they are fresh off of their Super Bowl year, and the Saints have taken on some extra weight in the middle since getting their rings. The Saints defense has not been stellar, but it will be good enough throughout the year to let Drew Brees do his thing.
They're a pretty likely Super Bowl pick, actually.
Overall Odds: 10-1
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Old 05-10-11, 20:09   #23
 
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Default Re: NFL Odds: Super Bowl Odds for Each NFL Team After 4 Weeks

New York Giants: 25-1




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The Giants aren't my favorite team in the NFL right now, but you can't really argue with results. The Giants are winning games. Yes they're doing it at the last second while also giving up a lot of yardage due to their depleted secondary, but those are just details.
They stand a chance of winning their division now that the Eagles fell off the face of the earth, and if they do, they could get hot at the right time.
Overall Odds: 25-1
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Old 05-10-11, 20:10   #24
 
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Default Re: NFL Odds: Super Bowl Odds for Each NFL Team After 4 Weeks

New York Jets: 25-1




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I'm a strong believer in the importance of QB play in the new pass-happy NFL, and I'm not a strong believer in Mark Sanchez. Shonn Greene ain't too pretty on the eyes either.
Seriously, this team is all defense, and while the saying goes that "defense wins championships," the truth is that balance wins championships. The Jets have a lot more defense than offense, so there goes that idea.
Then again, they've been to the Divisional championship round for each of the last two years...
Overall Odds: 25-1
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Old 05-10-11, 20:11   #25
 
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Default Re: NFL Odds: Super Bowl Odds for Each NFL Team After 4 Weeks

Oakland Raiders: 25-1




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The Raiders have a very strong running game and a stable QB situation. That counts for a lot. It doesn't, however, cover up the troubles the team has on defense.
The team doesn't have anyone in the secondary to replace Nnamdi Asomugha, so the Raiders' pass D is suffering.
All in all, odds aren't great for the Raiders, though they will likely give the Chargers some serious competition as far as the division title is concerned.
Overall Odds: 25-1
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Old 05-10-11, 20:13   #26
 
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Default Re: NFL Odds: Super Bowl Odds for Each NFL Team After 4 Weeks

Philadelphia Eagles: 1




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Yeah, I know. Another "dream team" joke, how original. I'll tell you what, I'll stop making the jokes when they stop feeling so good.
The Eagles are a very disappointing 1-3 this year, and are falling apart due to Michael Vicks injuries, and failures in run defense. The season is potentially salvageable, but it's something that would be surprising rather than expected at this point.
Overall Odds: 40-1
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Old 05-10-11, 20:14   #27
 
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Default Re: NFL Odds: Super Bowl Odds for Each NFL Team After 4 Weeks

Pittsburgh Steelers: 20-1




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The Steelers are still, in my mind, the Steelers. The problem is that the their offensive line is even worse this year than it was last year. Last year, by the way, the Steelers had the worst offensive line in the league.
Ben Roethlisberger getting smacked around like pinata, and if that doesn't stop, this team won't make it to .500. That would be a real shame, because the Steelers' defense is playing great.
All in all, I think the Steelers are still in the running, but not they aren't a team I would bet on to win it. Rashad Mendenhall's injury is going to give the Steelers trouble as well.
I'm giving them 20-1 odds.
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Old 05-10-11, 20:15   #28
 
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Default Re: NFL Odds: Super Bowl Odds for Each NFL Team After 4 Weeks

San Diego Chargers: 12-1




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The Chargers, a notoriously slow-starting team, are 3-1 in their first four games. That division must be very scared right now, because the Chargers always end strong.
The Chargers' passing game is through the roof now that Philip Rivers has Vincent Jackson to throw to again. Man do those two make it look pretty.
The Chargers' defense is playing pretty good ball so far, but they've been up against some easier opponents to this point in the season. Still, judging on what I've seen so far and my expectations for the future, I think the Chargers will go deep into the playoffs and challenge for the Super Bowl title.
Overall Odds: 12-1
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Old 05-10-11, 20:16   #29
 
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Default Re: NFL Odds: Super Bowl Odds for Each NFL Team After 4 Weeks

San Fransisco 49ers: 20-1




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The 49ers are 3-1. They've earned that record so far this season, and Alex Smith has been surprisingly not terrible. In fact, not only has the draft-bust QB not been terrible, he's been pretty good.
This team has long been a competent QB play away from a nice playoff run, and I could almost see this happening this year.
Imagine that, a Super Bowl winner from the NFC West...
The way I see it, the odds stand at about 20-1.
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Old 05-10-11, 20:18   #30
 
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Default Re: NFL Odds: Super Bowl Odds for Each NFL Team After 4 Weeks

Seattle Seahawks: 100-1




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It's been a while since the Seahawks have been anything other than a joke. Even when they made the playoffs last year and won a game, they still finished the year under .500.
This year, they won't make it to the playoffs, though. Losing Matt Hasselbeckand adding Tarvaris Jackson to replace him is proof enough that this team doesn't have what it takes.
Marshawn Lynch can still be an effective runner, and Sidney Rice will be a nice addition at receiver for them when he gets on the field, but let's not get carried away. This team is not winning the Super Bowl.
Overall Odds: 100-1
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Old 05-10-11, 20:19   #31
 
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Default Re: NFL Odds: Super Bowl Odds for Each NFL Team After 4 Weeks

St. Louis Rams: 125-1




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These are not the St. Louis Rams that went 7-9 last year and almost won their division.
This team more closely resembles the older Rams team, specifically the one that did badly enough to get the number one overall pick and select Sam Bradford. The team this year has suffered from injuries to key players. Steven Jackson has missed some playing time and Bradford has been a bit beaten up as well.
Even if the Rams do get their offense working, they've already gone down to 0-4. They won't win a Super Bowl this year.
Overall Odds: 125-1
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Old 05-10-11, 20:21   #32
 
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Default Re: NFL Odds: Super Bowl Odds for Each NFL Team After 4 Weeks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 35-1




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The Bucs have the same basic stable of players they had last year: Josh Freeman, Mike Williams, Gerald McCoy and Legarette Blount.
The difference is that this year they've also gotten younger defensive end.
Seriously, the division these guys are playing in is no joke. Even the sad sacks of the NFC South (the Panthers) have an offense that can win them some games. That's why the Bucs' odds are lower than their talent level would initially make you think.
It would be very difficult for them to win their division, thus no bye week and a lower shot at the Super Bowl. I'm setting the odds for this team at 35-1.
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Old 05-10-11, 20:22   #33
 
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Default Re: NFL Odds: Super Bowl Odds for Each NFL Team After 4 Weeks

Tennessee Titans: 20-1




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The Titans are a big surprise to me. Matt Hasselbeck is an old vet who is supposed to be washed up and on the tail end of his career. Instead, he's leading a Tennessee team that can't do what it really wants to do (run the ball) up and down the field. Weird, huh?
All the confusion aside, they haven't played the toughest schedule yet, and with this team more than any other, I'm ready to drop their odds at a moment's notice.
For now, the Titans are a 20-1 bet.
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Old 05-10-11, 20:23   #34
 
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Default Re: NFL Odds: Super Bowl Odds for Each NFL Team After 4 Weeks

Washington Redskins: 30-1




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The Redskins are another team that I'm sure few expected to have a 3-1 record. They seem to be flopping between two very capable running backs and using a solid, controlled passing game to edge out opponents.
That's not exactly how you make an entrance to the playoffs in the NFL. If you try to manage the game against a team like the Saints or Packers, you will get absolutely blown out, because they don't take their time scoring.
The Super Bowl this year is very likely to go through at least one of those two cities, so it's safe to assume that the 'Skins probably won't make it.
Overall Odds: 30-1
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