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Old 22-08-11, 09:14   #1
 
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Important Hurricane WARNINGS:Hurricane OPHELIA Set To Hit Ireland and The UK This Weekend

IRENE



This went closer to the TVCN and consensus with the 11PM track, but only marginally so. Irene may briefly hit hurricane force before landfall in Puerto Rico (at 70mph it's very close now). After that the official forecast takes it along the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, and later through the Bahamas, with landfall near Cape Canaveral. The cone still is fairly uncertain at that range and may extend eastward or slightly westward. With a lean toward the east right now. Those in the Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina should continue to monitor Irene.

Hurricane watches are now up for the Central Bahamas.


Hurricane Warnings are up for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the entire coastline of the Dominican Republic.





Hurricane Watches are up for the US Virgin Islands

Tropical Storm Warnings are up for the US and British Virgin Islands, Haiti, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy, the Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.
Tropical Storm watches are now up for the Central Bahamas as well.

Recon has found higher winds and lower pressure in Irene, 995 mb, after taking off from St. Croix while the center of circulation was over the island.

Most of Puerto Rico will be on the 'dirty' side of Irene as it passes over tonight, it will be an extremely rough evening there. Those in the area should be prepared.







After this, the forecast appears like there is no avoiding Hispaniola for Irene, and that it will at least cross over the Dominican Republic, probably as a hurricane. It is very likely Irene will become a hurricane tonight or early tomorrow as the system has a very healthy core, even though the southern outflow is lacking.

Beyond this is still speculation, but the current trends, with the notable exception of the GFDL, suggest it staying east of Florida and eventually impacting in south or North Carolina. The official forecast still takes it through Florida, which is very possible, this depends on exactly how far west Irene gets before feeling the weakness in the ridge. Based on radar imagery Irene may be in the process of slowing forward motion, which would extend the time affecting Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.




Those in the Watch/Warning areas, Cone, and all along the US Southeast from all of Florida to North Carolina need to watch Irene very closely.













CIMSS Animated Satellite:




OH OH, here we go, batten down the hatches people, its going to be a rough few days for us here in the Dominican Republic




See this plot animated



Satellite (IR/Vis) Loop IR, Loop Vis:

Satellite (Water Vapor) Loop WV:

Probability Cone

Wind Swaths




The Following Graphic is from the South Florida Water Management District See This animated)





HARVEY

Tropical Depression Harvey is back over water in the Bay of Campeche and is expected to regain Tropical Storm Force before making a second landfall in Southern Mexico. Tropical Storm Warnings are up for the coast from Punta el Lagarto to Barra de Nautla.
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Old 22-08-11, 09:14   #2
 
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Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season WARNINGS & UPDATES

For Those That do Not Understand The terminology Please Read Below

Practical Guide


How close is it? and How close can it get?

There is a storm brewing out there in the Atlantic, and you are wondering "How close is it?". Now you can accurately calculate the distance between the eye of the hurricane and your island. Just select your island and hurricane specifics like, the latitude and longitude coordinates of the storm and click on 'Show me how close...'. If your island is not listed you can enter your own coordinates.
In addition, you can enter the forward speed at which the hurricane is moving to calculate the time before the eye makes landfall at your location. If you know how far tropical storm winds extend from the center of the storm you can enter those as well to calculate how much preparation time you have left before winds will be blowing at tropical storm force. Caution: the numbers you get will only be true if the hurricane will travel in a straight line to your island at a constant speed and when you assume that the wind field doesn't change, in other words doesn't strengthen or weaken, over that time [this is normally not the case!!!].
Another tool available on this website calculates the closest point of approach of the eye of the storm to where you live from the 5-day forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center.


Select your Island:

Antigua Aruba Bahamas: Abaco Bahamas: Bimini Bahamas: Exuma Bahamas: Grand Bahama Bahamas: Inagua Bahamas: Nassau Bahamas: San Salvador Barbados Barbuda Belize: Ambergris Caye Bermuda Bonaire Cayman Islands: Grand Cayman Cuba: Guantanamo Bay Cuba: Habana Culebra Curacao


**Dominica Dominican Republic: Puerta Plata I. ** This is where I live (Ladybbird)


Dominican Republic: Punta Cana Dominican Republic: Santa Domingo Grenada Guadeloupe Haiti: Port au Prince Honduras: Guanaja Honduras: Roatan Jamaica: Kingston Jamaica: Montego Bay Martinique Mexico: Cancun Mexico: Cozumel Montserrat Nevis Puerto Rico: Mayaguez Puerto Rico: San Juan Saba St.Barths St.Croix St.Eustatius St.John St.Kitts St.Lucia St.Maarten/St.Martin St.Thomas St.Vincent Tobago Tortola Trinidad Turks & Caicos: Grand Turk Turks & Caicos: Provo Turks & Caicos: South Caicos Vieques

Enter Hurricane Specifics:

The eye is located at: NS EW
It is moving near mph kt km/h
TS winds extend from the center about mi nm km
Or enter your Coordinates:
Lat: NS Lon: EW

Help? The latitude/longitude location of the center of the storm and the speed at which it is moving can be found in the Public Advisories. A 72 hour forecast of the wind radii are listed in the Marine Advisories. Often it might be better to take the 72 hour value for wind radius to account for changes in hurricane strength. Both products are issued by the National Hurricane Center and linked directly from the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator (QHWRN). Note that the units in the Public Advisories are normally in miles and mph (miles per hour), and in the Marine Advisories in nm (nautical mile) and kt (nautical mile per hour). Lat/Lon should be entered in decimal degrees, not in the dd:mm:ss-format, so: 18.5, not: 18:30:00. Valid range: latitude 0-90 degrees, longitude: 0-180 degrees. When numbers are entered in the 'Or enter your Coordinates' box, the island selection is ignored. The coordinates for the islands are based on the corresponding National Weather Service weather stations. The algorithm and code for the distance calculation was provided by the National Geodetic Survey.


Unit Conversion

one kilometer (km): 0.62 mile 0.54 nautical mile one mile (m): 1.61 kilometer 0.87 nautical mile one nautical mile (nm): 1/60 degree latitude 1.85 kilometer 1.15 mile one knot (kt): one nautical mile per hour 1.85 km per hour 1.15 mile per hour (mph) Use the following table for a quick estimate of travel time of a tropical system to the Leeward islands.
One degree longitude equals: at latitudenautical milesmileskilometers 0° N60.069.2111.3 15° N58.166.8107.6 17.5° N57.366.0106.2 20° N56.565.0104.7 Example: Suppose that the center of a tropical storm is located at 15° N, 40° W, moving at 18 mph.
Most easterly Leeward islands located at around 61° W. This is a distance of 61-40=21° longitude. At 15° N this equals to 21x66.8= 1403 miles. So it will take around 1403/18= 78 hours or a 3 days and 6 hours to reach the islands. This is a rough estimate because the center of the storm has to stay on the same latitude and keep travelling at the same speed. You can also use the above form to calculate the distance and ETA.


The logic of NHC-advisories titles

WTNT32.KNHC, MIASPFAT3, etc., what do they mean? Which is which?
There are two different formats of NHC-advisories titles in use: (1) WTNT##.KNHC and (2) something like MIATCPAT#.
(1) WTNT##.KNHC: the first number (#) indicates the kind of advisory, the second the storm number. Marine Advisories have number 2, Public Advisories 3, Tropical Cyclone Discussions 4, Strike Probabilities 7. At times Tropical Cyclone Special Updates are released, numbered 6.
The storm numbers are as follows: Edouard has number 5, Fran 1 and Gustav 2.
Example: WTNT75.KNHC are the strike probablilites for Edouard.
(2) MIA*-format: Marine Advisories are titled MIATCMAT, Public Advisories MIATCPAT, Tropical Cyclone Discussions MIATCDAT, and the Strike Probabilities MIASPFAT. These are all followed by the number of the storm (see above).
Example: MIATCMAT2 (MIAmi Tropical Cyclone Marine Advisory Tropical Storm 2?) is the Marine Advisory for Gustav.


What time is it? Timezone confusion... UTC, AST, EDT?

Most advisories have the time in the local timezone of where the storm is, this can be AST, EDT,... Then on other advisories is just says something like 18:00 Z. That means 'Zulu' time, which is the same as Coordinated Universal Time (UTC), formerly known as Greenwich Mean Time (GMT). Below a quick reference table of some of the most common timezones used in the Caribbean and USA. Most islands are in the Atlantic Standard Timezone (AST) and do not observe daylight saving time (for a island-specific timezone list see: sizes.com).

Timezones relative to UTC (Current UTC Date/Time: Tue Aug 23 15:59:31 UTC 2011 ):

Daylight Saving Time:

ADT (Atlantic Daylight Time): subtract 3 hours from UTC --> 12:59
EDT (Eastern Daylight Time): subtract 4 hours from UTC --> 11:59
CDT (Central Daylight Time): subtract 5 hours from UTC --> 10:59
MDT (Mountain Daylight Time): subtract 6 hours from UTC --> 09:59
PDT (Pacific Daylight Time): subtract 7 hours from UTC --> 08:59

Standard Time:

AST (Atlantic Standard Time): subtract 4 hours from UTC --> 11:59
EST (Eastern Standard Time): subtract 5 hours from UTC --> 10:59
CST (Central Standard Time): subtract 6 hours from UTC --> 09:59
MST (Mountain Standard Time): subtract 7 hours from UTC --> 08:59
PST (Pacific Standard Time): subtract 8 hours from UTC --> 07:59


How to read Marine Advisories and Reconnaisance Reports

The Marine Advisories give information about the current and forecasted windfield and sea conditions around the center of the storm. Important to check is that if a Hurricane does not make landfall to see how close it passes by.
An example of a small piece taken out of the Marine Advisory of Hortense of 11PM/Sep 11:

EYE DIAMETER 16 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT
64 KT....... 50NE 25SE 25SW 25NW
50 KT.......100NE 50SE 30SW 60NW
34 KT.......175NE 150SE 50SW 120NW
12 FT SEAS..175NE 150SE 50SW 120NW

ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES

All numbers are in nautical miles (nm). One nm equals 1.15 mile. In the above example the diameter of the eye is 16 nm (18 miles). Maximum sustained winds near the center are 85 kts (98mph) with gusts to 121 mph (105kt). Now comes the interesting part. Up to 50 nm to the North East of the center 64 kt winds (hurricane force) occur, and up to 25 nm to the SE, SW and NW. Connecting those points will make a kind of 'crooked' circle around the center. The same goes for the 50 kt, 34 kt (tropical storm) and 12 ft seas. So you can see from these data that the storm is a-symmetrical and that the 'grunt' of the storm is on the North-Eastern side.
At the time of this advisory Turks Island was 35 miles (30 nm) to the West of the center, so they are just outside the range of (sustained) hurricane force winds. If they would have been to the North West of the center they would be in the range of 64 kt winds. Since there are gusts to 105 kt (121 mph) they will experience hurricane force winds from time to time.
From time to time the National Hurricane Center sends out reconnaisance airplanes to the eye of the storm. If you are a serious 'hurricane tracker' you must check out those Reconnaisance Reports.


Abbreviations in Strike Probabilities (and current weather conditions)

Weather Station Identifiers for most of the Caribbean Islands as reported in the NHC Strike Probabilities Advisories. A complete list of all weather stations around the world can be found on the National Weather Service website. You can also click on the station identifier to get the current weather conditions (if available) from the Internet Weather Source (NWS).

Station
Identifier
station island latitude longitude elevation
(meters)


TRPM Blackburne / Plymouth Antigua and Barbuda 16-45N 062-10W 12 TKPN Charlestown / Newcast Antigua and Barbuda 17-12N 062-35W 17 TAPA Vc Bird International Airport Antigua and Barbuda 17-07N 061-47W 8 TNCA Queen Beatrix Airport Aruba 12-30N 070-01W 18 MYBS Alice Town, Bimini Bahamas 25-44N 079-18W 2 MYSM ****burn Town, San Salvador Bahamas 24-03N 074-32W 3 MYGF Freeport, Grand Bahama Bahamas 26-33N 078-42W 2 MYEG George Town, Exuma Bahamas 23-30N 075-46W 2 MYIG Matthew Town, Inagua Bahamas 20-57N 073-41W 2 MYNN Nassau Airport Bahamas 25-03N 077-28W 3 MYGW West End, Grand Bahama Bahamas 26-42N 078-58W 2 TBPO Bridgetown City Barbados 13-06N 059-37W 50 TBPB Grantley Adams Barbados 13-04N 059-29W 50 TNCB Flamingo Airport Bonaire, N.A. 12-09N 068-17W 6 MWCR Owen Roberts Airport, Grand Cayman Cayman Islands 19-17N 081-21W 3 MUHA Aeropuerto Jose Mar-Ti, Rancho-Boyeros, Habana Cuba 22-59N 082-24W 59 MUBA Baracoa, Oriente Cuba 20-21N 074-30W 9 MUBY Bayamo Cuba 20-24N 076-37W 64 MUCM Camaguey Aeropuerto Cuba 21-25N 077-51W 122 MUCL Cayo Largo Del Sur Cuba 21-37N 081-33W 2 MUCF Cienfuegos, Las Villas Cuba 22-09N 080-24W 39 MUGM Guantanamo, Oriente Cuba 19-54N 075-08W 23 MUGT Guantanamo, Oriente Cuba 20-05N 075-09W 8 MUHG Holguin Civ / Mil Cuba 20-47N 076-19W 106 MUVT Las Tunas, Las Tunas Cuba 20-57N 076-57W 106 MUMZ Manzanillo, Oriente Cuba 20-20N 077-07W 60 MUMO Moa Military Cuba 20-39N 074-55W 5 MUNG Nueva Gerona, Isla De Pinos Cuba 21-50N 082-47W 23 MUPR Pinar Del Rio, Pinar Del Rio Cuba 22-25N 083-41W 37 MUCU Santiago De Cuba, Oriente Cuba 19-58N 075-51W 69 MUVR Varadero, Matanzas Cuba 23-08N 081-17W 3 MUCA Venezuela, Ciego De Avila Cuba 21-47N 078-47W 26 TNCC Hato Airport Curacao, N.A. 12-12N 068-58W 9 TDCF Canefield Airport Dominica 15-32N 061-24W 5 TDPD Melville Hall Airport Dominica 15-32N 061-18W 13 TDPR Roseau Dominica 15-18N 061-24W 72 MDBH Barahona

Dominican Republic 18-12N 071-06W 3 MDLR La Romana International Airport Dominican Republic 18-25N 068-57W 8 MDSD Las Americas Dominican Republic 18-26N 069-40W 18 MDPP Puerto Plata International Dominican Republic 19-45N 070-33W 15 MDPC Punta Cana Dominican Republic 18-34N 068-22W 12 MDSI San Isidro Air Force Base Dominican Republic 18-30N 069-46W 111 MDST Santiago Dominican Republic

19-27N 070-42W 183 TGPY Point Salines Airport Grenada 12-00N 061-47W 6 TFFR Le Raizet Guadeloupe 16-16N 061-31W 11 MTCH Cap-Haitien Haiti 19-45N 072-11W 2 MTPP Port-Au-Prince / Aeroport International Haiti 18-34N 072-18W 31 MKJP Kingston / Norman Manley Jamaica 17-56N 076-47W 3 MKJS Montego Bay / Sangster Jamaica 18-30N 077-55W 1 TFFF Le Lamentin Martinique 14-36N 061-00W 5 TJBQ Aquadilla / Borinquen Puerto Rico 18-30N 067-08W 72 TJSJ Luis Munoz Marin Puerto Rico 18-27N 066-00W 3 TJMZ Mayaguez / Eugenio Puerto Rico 18-16N 067-09W 9 TJPS Ponce / Mercedita Puerto Rico 18-01N 066-34W 9 TJNR Roosevelt Roads, Naval Station Puerto Rico 18-15-19N 065-38-19W 11 TFFJ Gustavia Saint Barthelemy 17-54N 062-51W 48 TISX Christiansted / Alex. Hamilton Field Saint Croix 17-42N 064-48W 17 TNCE Roosevelt Airport Saint Eustatius, N.A. 17-29N 062-59W 38 TKPK Golden Rock Saint Kitts and Nevis 17-18N 062-41W 48 TLPL Hewanorra International Airport Saint Lucia 13-45N 060-57W 3 TLPC Vigie Saint Lucia 14-01N 061-00W 2 TNCM Juliana Airport Saint Maarten, N.A. 18-03N 063-07W 4 TIST Charlotte Amalie, Cyril E. King International Airport Saint Thomas, U.S.V.I. 18-20N 064-59W 7 TVSV Arnos Vale Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 13-08N 061-12W 9 TTPT Crown Point Airport Tobago 11-09N 060-50W 3 TTCP Crown Pt./ Scarborou Tobago 11-09N 060-51W 8 TUPJ Beef Island Tortola, B.V.I. 18-27N 064-32W 4 TTPP Piarco International Airport Trinidad 10-37N 061-21W 12

Tropical Systems


Tropical disturbance, tropical wave: Unorganized mass of thunderstorms, very little, if any, organized wind circulation. Tropical depression: Evidence of closed wind circulation around a center with sustained winds from 20-34 knots (23-39 mph). Tropical storm: Maximum sustained winds are from 35-64 knots (40-74 mph). The storm is named once it reaches tropical storm strength. Hurricane: Maximum sustained winds exceed 64 knots (74 mph).

Saffir Simpson Hurricane Intensity Scale

Category One - A Minimal HurricaneWinds: 74-95 mph, 64-83 kts, 119-153 km/h Minimum surface pressure: higher than 980 mbar Storm surge: 3-5 ft, 1.0-1.7 m Damage primarily to shrubbery, trees, foliage, and unanchored homes. No real damage to other structures. Some damage to poorly constructed signs. Low-lying coastal roads inundated, minor pier damage, some small craft in exposed anchorage torn from moorings. Example: Hurricane Jerry (1989) Category Two - A Moderate HurricaneWinds: 96-110 mph, 84-96 kts, 154-177 km/h Minimum surface pressure: 979-965 mbar Storm surge: 6-8 ft, 1.8-2.6 m Considerable damage to shrubbery and tree foliage; some trees blown down. Major damage to exposed mobile homes. Extensive damage to poorly constructed signs. Some damage to roofing materials of buildings; some window and door damage. No major damage to buildings. Coast roads and low-lying escape routes inland cut by rising water 2 to 4 hours before arrival of hurricane center. Considerable damage to piers. Marinas flooded. Small craft in unprotected anchorages torn from moorings. Evacuation of some shoreline residences and low-lying areas required. Example: Hurricane Bob (1991) Category Three - An Extensive HurricaneWinds: 111-130 mph, 97-113 kts, 178-209 km/h Minimum surface pressure: 964-945 mbar Storm surge: 9-12 ft, 2.7-3.8 m Foliage torn from trees; large trees blown down. Practically all poorly constructed signs blown down. Some damage to roofing materials of buildings; some wind and door damage. Some structural damage to small buildings. Mobile homes destroyed. Serious flooding at coast and many smaller structures near coast destroyed; larger structures near coast damaged by battering waves and floating debris. Low-lying escape routes inland cut by rising water 3 to 5 hours before hurricane center arrives. Flat terrain 5 feet of less above sea level flooded inland 8 miles or more. Evacuation of lowlying residences within several blocks of shoreline possibly required. Example: Hurricane Gloria (1985) Category Four - An Extreme Hurricane Winds 131-155 mph, 114-135 kts, 210-249 km/h Minimum surface pressure: 944-920 mbar Storm surge: 13-18 ft, 3.9-5.6 m Shrubs and trees blown down; all signs down. Extensive damage to roofing materials, windows and doors. Complete failures of roofs on many small residences. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Flat terrain 10 feet of less above sea level flooded inland as far as 6 miles. Major damage to lower floors of structures near shore due to flooding and battering by waves and floating debris. Low-lying escape routes inland cut by rising water 3 to 5 hours before hurricane center arrives. Major erosion of beaches. Massive evacuation of all residences within 500 yards of shore possibly required, and of singlestory residences within 2 miles of shore. Example: Hurricane Andrew (1992) Category Five - A Catastrophic HurricaneWinds: greater than 155 mph, 135 kts, 249 km/h Minimum surface pressure: lower than 920 mbar Storm surge: higher than 18 ft, 5.6 m Shrubs and trees blown down; considerable damage to roofs of buildings; all signs down. Very severe and extensive damage to windows and doors. Complete failure of roofs on many residences and industrial buildings. Extensive shattering of glass in windows and doors. Some complete building failures. Small buildings overturned or blown away. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Major damage to lower floors of all structures less than 15 feet above sea level within 500 yards of shore. Low-lying escape routes inland cut by rising water 3 to 5 hours before hurricane center arrives. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5 to 10 miles of shore possibly required. Example: Hurricane Camille (1969)

In case of emergency: the Amateur Radio Operators are standing by

When everything else fails... When one of the Caribbean Islands is under threat of a tropical system I publish eye-witness reports from our Special Hurricane Correspondents on the Caribbean Hurricane Network. These reports come in by e-mail. If there is a big hit, it will be very likely that power and phonelines will be down, so the chance will be quite small of getting those reports by e-mail (no power=no pc; no phone=no dial-up with modem to isp). This of course doesn't only affect me but all emergency workers. This works the other way as well, when power and phones are down, people in the affected areas have a hard time of getting timely information. This is the time when the Amateur Radio Operators come in. Radio waves will always travel when you have a generator or other kind of power backup. Irvine B. Niffikeer, one of my hurricane correspondents on Trinidad & Tobago, forwarded me the following information on how to catch the emergency reports: In the event of a disaster -God forbid-, one can obtain information from Amateur Radio Operators in the West Indies on the following frequencies:
  • HF Frequencies
    • 14.303 MHz - The International Assistance and Traffic Net (IATN). This is the International Extension of the National Traffic System of the American Radio Relay League (ARRL)
    • 3.815 MHz - The Antilles Emergency and Weather Net. The Amateur radio operators will handle emergency messages out of the affected areas during the first 48 to 60 hours after a Disaster.
    • These Nets will operate on a 24 hour basis. Health and welfare messages will be handled when Public Facilities are restored.
      Operators in affected areas will most probable be operating with battery power and stations outside of the disaster areas should cooperate and do not jam the system with calls. Please listen.
      These persons should direct their calls to one of the Net Control stations.
  • VHF Frequencies
    • 147.80 MHz -600 Repeater. This is the local National Emergency Management Agency Repeater.
    • 147.93 MHz -600 Repeater. The Trinidad and Tobago Amateur Radio Society Repeater.
    • 146.94 MHz -600 Repeater. do. do.. do..
    • These frequencies will be used if they are operational after a hurricane. If these repeaters fail to function after a hurricane, operators will use the output frequencies as simplex frequencies to communicate.
      In addition to the above frequencies 147.500 MHz will also be used as a simplex frequency.
Because of modern technology e.g. satellite pictures, one can tell in advance when a hurricane is likely to strike. In this situation, amateur radio operators will secure antennas and may shut down their stations about 1 hour before the hurricane strikes. During this period there will be lightning and strong winds until the hurricane passes. This period can be 2 to 3 hours.
Only those stations that took the necessary precaution and preparation in time will be heard on the air.
I hope you find this information useful and informative so that people can be aware of what is likely to happen in the event of a National Disaster and will be more enlightened and cooperate when the real situation occurs -God forbid-.

Thanks to Irvine B. Niffikeer



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Old 22-08-11, 13:53   #3
 
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Default re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=Katia- WARNINGS & UPDATES

Gr8 thread Ladybbird. Thx.
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Default re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=Katia- WARNINGS & UPDATES

Not great for me though. Hate tropical storm season Woooooooooooooooooo
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Old 22-08-11, 23:45   #5
 
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Default re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=Katia- WARNINGS & UPDATES

This country I live in is preparing for the worst;


DOMINICAN REPUBLIC;
Schools closed, flights cancelled for Hurricane Irene


Santo Domingo.- The country is on maximum alert for Hurricane Irene, which is expected to hit the eastern/north eastern shores of the Dominican Republic around midday.


NHC Track Map (See this animated)




The storm, which lashed the neighboring island of Puerto Rico last night, was upgraded to a category 1 hurricane overnight but its course has turned north-northwestwards. Irene thus becomes the first hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic season, according to the United States National Hurricane Center.


Although the eastern coast and the Samaná peninsula are likely to feel strong effects in the shape of wind gusts and heavy rainfall, the current projection is for the storm to continue on a north-northwest course.
In response, the Ministry of Education has announced that all schools will be closed today Monday. Many flights have been canceled and the military confined to barracks at the service of the emergency services.


The Emergency Operations Center (COE) declared a red alert for the provinces of La Altagracia, La Romana, San Pedro de Macorís, Santo Domingo, San Cristóbal, Peravia, San José de Ocoa, Azua, El Seibo, Hato Mayor, Barahona, Pedernales, San Juan de la Maguana, Independencia, Bahoruco, Monte Cristi, Puerto Plata, Espaillat, María Trinidad Sánchez, Samaná, Duarte and the National District. Monte Plata, Sánchez Ramírez, Monseñor Noel, La Vega, Santiago, Elías Piña, Dajabón, Valverde, Hermanas Mirabal and Santiago Rodríguez are under yellow alert.
Dominican Today





CIMSS Animated Satellite:



Skeetobite Weather Plot:



See this plot animated


Skeetobite Weather Storm Plot:



Satellite (IR/Vis) Loop IR, Loop Vis:

Satellite (Water Vapor) Loop WV:

Probability Cone

Wind Swaths



The Following Graphic is from the South Florida Water Management District See This animated)


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Old 22-08-11, 23:57   #6
 
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Default re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=Katia- WARNINGS & UPDATES

HURRICANE IRENE






HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
2100 UTC MON AUG 22 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER

* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO EASTWARD
TO CABO ENGANO

* ALL OF HAITI

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 68.6W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT.......160NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 60SE 30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 68.6W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 68.1W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.1N 70.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 20SW 45NW.
34 KT...160NE 75SE 45SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.8N 72.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 20SW 45NW.
34 KT...160NE 75SE 45SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 21.5N 74.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 20SW 45NW.
34 KT...130NE 75SE 45SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 23.0N 75.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 25SW 45NW.
34 KT...160NE 75SE 45SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 26.0N 78.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 90SE 75SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 29.5N 79.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 34.0N 79.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 68.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

Thanks to
FORECASTER AVILA
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Old 23-08-11, 16:04   #7
 
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Default re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=Katia- WARNINGS & UPDATES

Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola


11AM EDT 23 August 2011 Update
Hurricane Warnings are now up for all of the Bahamas. The forecast track shifted very very slightly to the east, but it is mostly an extension of the 5AM official forecast.

Florida is also now out of the cone of uncertainty


Original Update
Hurricane Irene has pulled in a bit of dry air from interaction with Hispaniola that disrupted the inflow a bit overnight, but appears to be on track toward the official forecast path. Outflow is starting to become well defined on the western side of the system, and it appears that it will likely regain and strengthen later today once it moves further away from the Island.

Computer model guidance from last night (with extra data collected from NOAA and Air force planes) has shifted right which implies Florida will see very little impact other than beach erosion and rough surf, which is good news for them (right along the coast may be a little breezy though), however based on the official forecast, a major hurricane is expected to pass 150 miles to the east of Florida, tearing through the central Bahamas. After which it is projected to make landfall in North Carolina near Wilmington late night Saturday into Sunday morning. Most models have come into agreement on it staying east of the US until North Carolina. The track may shift slightly west or east during the day, but should remain relatively in the cone. It is important to note, so far the trends have been to the east.

Beyond the forecast, After that it may rake along the east coast into New England, so folks as far up as Maine into Canada will want to watch Irene.

There are no new watches or warnings so far today.



Satellite shows a slightly disrupted hurricane (from land interaction with Hispaniola), but very little holding it back from regaining and strengthening later after it moves away. Outflow to the north and west of the storm is very conductive for development. There is a slight elongation north to south in the system which would imply a slight tug northward, which is in line with the forecast projections. If anything changes in the near term it would be because of any interesting interactions with Hispaniola. Generally though, Irene is a very large hurricane and field fields are very large so most of the Bahamas will be affected in some way.

Those in Florida will still want to watch it to see exactly how close it gets, but it would have to get within 60 miles of the coast to see any significant hurricane weather from Irene (it is forecast to be 150 miles east near it's closest approach point). And chances of that are low, around 5%, usually not enough to change plans. Chances for Tropical Storm force winds are a little higher right along the Florida east coast at 30% In short, on it's closest approach, you probably won't want to be on the beach. Surfers will get very long period swells as it approaches, but at closest approach it will be too rough to do much.

For those keeping track, the official forecast gets updated at 5AM, 11AM, 5PM and 11PM, with intermediate advisories at 2AM, 8AM, 2PM, and 8PM while watches/warnings are active. In majors, usually updates can come even more often than that. As a note, there is nothing suggesting a shift back to the west will occur right now, if a change would occur, odds are it would be the opposite (to the east).

Those in North Carolina need to use the next few days for preparations, and South Carolina will want to any westward shifts. Those further north into New England will want to watch the progress of Irene as well.

The Bahamas will get a very rough next few days with a major hurricane forecast to be across the heart of the islands.



Active Tropical Systems: Hurricane Irene
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30








GOES-13 Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (14:45 UTC, 54 minutes ago)
Vertical gridlines 10° or about 650 miles (~1050 km) apart.





Irene tools:
distance | closest point | advisories | 3/5 day cone | models | image and loop | mySat
98L Invest:
satellite images (Navy/NRL) | model track: sfwmd.gov -or- wunderground.com
90L Invest:
satellite images (Navy/NRL) | model track: sfwmd.gov -or- wunderground.com



Tuesday, August 23, 2011 08:17AM EDT - 90L

Good morning,

First, thoughts and prayers to those in the T&C and the Bahamas. I hope you are ready.

As I alluded to a couple days ago, while eye's are on Hurricane Irene, we needed to still watch our backside. Here comes now official 90L, located at 12.2N, 19.0W, top winds at 25 mph, 1008 mb pressure and moving west. As it was just classified, not alot of information has been diseminated yet but it is safe to say it appears this will be another one to contend with next week.

And we still have the most active historical period to go!

Dave



- - click on image for animation - -






The above GOES-13 satellite image is created with the Interactive Weather Satellite Viewer at NASA's Global Hydrology and Climate Center and is updated every 30 minutes (EDT = UTC - 4 hours). The full image is shown at the bottom of this page. Below as well Meteosat Satellite Images of the central Atlantic. These will show waves coming from the African Coast can become the infamous 'Cape Verde storms' or the next big one for the Caribbean islands... Also below, an image of current sea surface temperature. Hurricanes get their energy from warm water. The water usually has to be at least 80F to be able to fuel a hurricane. Is it warm enough yet?

Dave

- - Waves from African Coast - -
Below the most recent combined Meteosat-SSM/I MPE (Multi-sensor Precipitation Estimate) and Meteosat Airmass product, focussing on any waves coming off the African coasts. These waves have the potential to develop into hurricanes. Updated every 30 minutes (MPE) or 60 minutes (Airmass). More information on these products on the EUMETSAT Website. Image Copyright EUMETSAT. For a more detailed view of the African coast a high spatial (but lower temporal) resolution loop can be found on NASA's NAMMA project website.


- - Precipitation Estimate (MPE) - -

- - Air Mass - -

- - click on images for animation - -
- - Saharan Air Layer (SAL) - -
The Saharan Air Layer (in red below) is a very dry air-mass coming from the African continent. Because it is so dry it can inhibit the formation and/or intensification of tropical storms. See also: NOAA's Hurricane FAQ. Source original image: CIMSS at University of Wisconsin-Madison, below my cropped version to accentuate the Atlantic.
- - Saharan Air Layer - -

- - Click on image for movies and other info - -


- - Tropical Waves - -
Although not a satellite image, the so-called Unified Surface Analysis below, shows among other things the location of tropical waves, high/low temperatures, windspeed and direction, the ITCZ, fronts and high and low pressure systems. Comparing it for example to the satellite image below shows how much convection is associated with those waves or low pressure systems. It is produced by the Ocean Prediction Center (NOAA/NCEP). I cropped the original image, full size can be retrieved by clicking on it.


- - Unified Surface Analysis (NOAA/NCEP) - -

- - Click on image for full resolution - -




- - GOES-East/Meteosat Combi - -
The two satellite GOES-East and Meteosat cover the Atlantic from different angles. The GOES images are cut off in the Eastern Atlantic, preventing us to see waves coming off the African Coast, while Meteosat doesn't show the Caribbean Islands well. I have not been able to find a nice image combining these two in one, so that we get a clear picture of what is happening in the Atlantic and if something is going to threaten the islands. Therefore I created one myself by combining two NOAA images using the same type of map-projection. Below you see the GOES-East image on the left and the Meteosat on the right with the split just east of 30W. Note that the times shown below the image can be a bit different and therefore the overlap less perfect (Meteosat gets updated less frequently).

- - GOES/Meteosat Combi - -





- - More GOES (Central Atl., Caribbean, Gulf+Eastern US) - -
- - GOES Central Atlantic - -

- - Click on image to see latest loop, + add overlays - -

- - GOES Caribbean - -

- - Click on image to see latest loop, + add overlays - -

- - G O E S - -

- - Click on image to create different projections, zoomed images and loops!


Sea Surface Temperature
Source: Weather Underground


Note: Weather satellite data (except SST-map) courtesy of the Global Hydrology and Climate Center in Huntsville Alabama, NOAA/NESDIS and EUMETSAT.
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Default re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=Katia- WARNINGS & UPDATES

Category 2 Hurricane Irene

08/23 2:00 PM EDT - Hurricane Conditions Expected To Reach The Turks And Caicos Islands Very Soon
20.7N 71.2W
Windspeed: 100 MPH - Pressure: 977mb
Movement: Wnw at 10 MPH


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
355 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN MARION COUNTY IN NORTHERN FLORIDA

* UNTIL 445 PM EDT

* AT 355 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR OCALA AIRPORT...OR 7 MILES WEST OF OCALA...AND MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO OCALA
AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.


NHC Track Map (See this animated)



CIMSS Animated Satellite:

Skeetobite Weather Plot:

See this plot animated

Skeetobite Weather Storm Plot:

Satellite (IR/Vis) Loop IR, Loop Vis:

Satellite (Water Vapor) Loop WV:

Probability Cone

Wind Swaths

The Following Graphic is from the South Florida Water Management District See This animated)



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Default re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=Katia- WARNINGS & UPDATES

Watch what's to come this season..... not looking good at all. There is nothing in between us here in the Caribbean and W Africa to slow them down,,,,,,,,,, only the Atlantic, which will help them gain strength

Batten the hatches



Long term Central Atlantic Wide Area Water Vapor recording for peak of 2011 Hurricane Season
742 images in loop - Image Last Checked: 6:44 PM Aug 23 EDT Image Last Updated: 6:22 PM Aug 23 EDT (recording active)



Use this link for the latest static image


Image Time: 1:55:00 PM EDT August-22-11


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Old 27-08-11, 13:03   #10
 
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Default re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=Katia- WARNINGS & UPDATES

Update: Hurricane Irene makes landfall




Kill Devil Hills, North Carolina (CNN) -- Somewhat weakened but still ferocious, Hurricane Irene slammed into the North Carolina coast Saturday morning, drenching the coastline and starting an ominous northward march up the Atlantic Seaboard.
The massive Category 1 hurricane made landfall near Cape Lookout around 7:30 a.m. with top sustained winds of 85 miles per hour thrashing sand and water in every direction.
Kitty Hawk braced next for a nasty right hook from Irene.
Ten of thousands of people in North Carolina were without power as reports of damage started filtering in.
About 190,000 customers of Progress Energy lost power, said company spokeswoman Lauren Bradford. Gusty winds will affect restoration efforts even with tripled crews, she said.
In nearby Ocracoke, at the southern end of the Outer Banks, a couple of hundred residents riding out the storm lost power early Saturday morning. Their power lines are strung along poles mounted on the highest sand dunes.
"The power went off for good around 5 a.m.," said Clayton Gaskill, who had been trying to keep the island's tiny radio station, WOVV, running through the night. "We won't be back on the air until the storm goes by, because there's no shelter for the portable generators," he said in a text message to CNN.
In Atlantic Beach, which did not feel the full brunt of the storm, a hotel face ripped away and part of a pier was washed into the raging sea. Walls of water came gushing onto land, flooding waterfront roads.
Hurricanes usually weaken over land, but Irene's first U.S. target, the slivers of North Carolina islands in the Atlantic, are marshlands surrounded by water and Irene is expected to keep churning with hurricane force.
The National Hurricane Center said extremely dangerous storm tide could raise water levels by as much as 9 feet in some parts of North Carolina. It also warned of the possibility of tornadoes touching down.
In its northward run, Irene is expected to cause trouble all the way up to Boston this weekend. Parts of New York City, including sea-level lower Manhattan, braced for major flooding.
New York has ordered mandatory evacuation for 370,000 of its residents.
Irene prompted the cancellation of hundreds of airline flights, the imminent shutdown of the New York subway system and an unprecedented mandatory evacuation in parts of "the city that never sleeps."
Forecasters expect Irene to bring deadly storm surge, heavy rainfall and misery to millions.
As of 8 a.m. ET Saturday, Hurricane Irene was centered about 5 miles north of Cape Lookout. It was moving north-northeast at 14 miles per hour, the hurricane center said.
An ocean surge of up to 11 feet is possible in coastal North Carolina, tearing away beaches and probably damaging homes, businesses and other structures before the storm slides up the East Coast to New England, said Bill Read, the Hurricane Center director.
A storm surge also will raise water levels up to 4 to 8 feet above ground level in areas stretching from the North Carolina-Virginia border to Cape Cod, Massachusetts.
"The surge will be accompanied by large, destructive and life-threatening waves," the hurricane center said.
Irene could dump a total of 6 to 10 inches of rain from eastern North Carolina up to western New England and as much as 15 inches of rain in isolated areas, the weather agency said.
The storm could compound the heavy rainfall by thrashing water from the Atlantic Ocean onto land.
Ernie Seneca, a North Carolina spokesman, said authorities are concerned about the "entire eastern half of the state."
"This hurricane could potentially impact an area that includes 20 counties and 3.5 million people," he said.
Mandatory evacuation orders were in force in 19 North Carolina counties, said Julia Jarema, spokeswoman for the North Carolina Emergency Management Center.
New York City issued an unprecedented mandatory evacuation order, covering low-lying areas of all five of the city's boroughs. About 250,000 people are affected.
"The low-lying coastal areas that will be endangered most by storm surge include Coney Island and Manhattan Beach in Brooklyn, Far Rockaway and Broad Channel in Queens, South Beach, Midland Beach, and other low-lying areas on Staten Island, Battery Park City in Manhattan, and some small sections of the Bronx," Mayor Michael Bloomberg said.
"We have never done a mandatory evacuation before, and we wouldn't be doing this now if we didn't think the storm had the potential to be very serious."
The order meant five New York City hospitals had to evacuate patients.
Rashida Mungin, a nurse at NYU Langone Medical Center, and her colleagues worked nonstop Friday to help move patients to hospitals outside the flood zone.
"(Intensive care) patients and neonatal were top priority -- they were transferred first," she said.
Mungin said nurses recalled the horrific story of New Orleans hospital patients getting trapped in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 -- and wanted to avoid a similar situation.
"It's better to be prepared," she said.
Irene's current track could make it the most destructive hurricane to strike New York City since 1938.
Authorities warned of widespread and prolonged power outages, flash flooding and storm surges that could flood low-lying communities and possibly inundate subway systems.
The New York Metropolitan Transit Authority will shut down its system at noon Saturday, and five airports in metropolitan New York will close to arriving flights beginning at noon Saturday.
New Jersey Transit will shut down at noon Saturday, and the transit system in Philadelphia will halt service at 12:30 a.m. on Sunday. Boston said it intends to keep its system operating.
Various airlines canceled flights to and from the region starting Saturday, including American Airlines, AirTran Airways, JetBlue Airways, Delta Air Lines and Southwest Airlines. US Airways is planning "significant flight schedule reductions" at a number of airports.
The storm also forced the cancellations of concerts, sporting events and, in New York, all the weekend's Broadway shows.
President Barack Obama signed emergency declarations for Virginia, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut and Massachusetts, and ordered federal aid to supplement state and local efforts.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency "is authorized to identify, mobilize, and provide at its discretion, equipment and resources necessary to alleviate the impacts of the emergency," the White House said in a statement.
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Default re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=Katia- WARNINGS & UPDATES

Irene Is Now A Tropical Storm.



By the CNN Wire Staff
August 28, 2011 9:56 a.m. EDT

New York (CNN) -- River waters began flooding into Manhattan's streets as Irene lashed New York City with wind gusts and torrential rains Sunday morning.
Even as Irene weakened to a tropical storm, authorities warned that its impact was not waning.
"Do not leave your homes. ... It is still not safe," New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie said Sunday morning. "We've got flooding everywhere and flash flooding in all different parts of the state."
Officials said the storm had knocked out power to more than 3 million people and was responsible for at least 11 deaths in four states as it pummeled some of the biggest cities in the Northeast.
In lower Manhattan, the Hudson River overflowed, sending massive amounts of water spilling over jogging paths and pouring into at least one nearby apartment building. Water also lapped over the banks of New York City's East River early Sunday but later receded.
The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey closed the north tube of the Holland Tunnel due to flooding, and CNN affiliate WCBS reported serious flooding in Brooklyn.
But in New York City, the flooding's greatest impact may be far from view, former Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff told CNN.
"The challenge of New York is that so much of the electricity and other infrastructure is below the surface," he said.
That means flooding could bring life in the city to a standstill even after waters recede, he said.
The threat of flooding extended beyond New York City. Outside Philadelphia, waters had already climbed to street-sign levels in Darby, Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter said, sending "couches, furniture, all kinds of stuff floating down the street."
Waves pounded the shoreline in Long Beach, New York, as water poured underneath the boardwalk and into the city's downtown area.
By 9 a.m. ET Sunday, Irene had weakened to a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. The storm slammed into Little Egg Inlet, New Jersey, about 5:30 a.m., the hurricane center said.
In New York, streets in "the city that never sleeps" looked barren and desolate as residents braced for the full brunt of Irene.
Shelves upon empty shelves greeted last-minute shoppers at stores. Caution tape barricaded the turnstiles at subway stops.
Allysia Matthews and her husband holed up in their Manhattan apartment Sunday morning.
"The streets in general tend to start flooding" during rainfall, Matthews said. "We've been staying at home because there's really no way to get around."
Earlier Sunday, the hurricane hit Ocean City, Maryland, leaving some sections of the city without power. Officials stopped sending vehicles to respond to 911 calls after winds topped 50 mph, said Bob Rhode of the city's office of emergency management.
While Irene dumped 12 inches of rain by early Sunday morning, there was no major flooding. The maximum storm surge coincided with low tide, preventing the flooding that had been feared.
Timing "made a significant difference," Mayor Rick Meehan said in a news conference Sunday morning.
The evacuated city was reopened Sunday morning to property owners, business owners, tenants and employees, the mayor said, and would reopen to the general public at noon.
"It was a long night last night, but I can tell you, we dodged a missile here at Ocean City," Meehan said.
An early morning tour of the area showed damage to the facade of one building, and sand covered part of the boardwalk and a large parking lot.
Powerful gusts were so strong in some states that pedestrians struggled to stay upright. Storm surges along the East Coast turned at least one beach into an extension of the ocean.
A nuclear power reactor in Calvert Cliffs, Maryland, automatically went offline late Saturday after a piece of aluminum siding from a building struck a transformer amid strong winds.
"The facility is safe; there is no impact to employees or our neighbors," said Mark Sullivan, spokesman for the Constellation Energy Nuclear Group. "There is no threat."
In New Jersey, ferocious winds blew tree branches horizontally. But George Nikolis of Jersey City insisted on riding out the storm.
"You only see something like this maybe once every 25 years, and I wanted to be here to capture this historic moment," Nikolis said.
Officials have blamed at least 11 deaths on Irene.
Five people died as a result of the storm in North Carolina, and three were killed in Virginia due to falling trees, emergency officials said.
A 55-year-old male surfer died around noon in New Smyrna Beach, Florida, and a woman in Queenstown, Maryland, died after a tree knocked a chimney through the roof of her home, officials said. Connecticut Gov. Dan Malloy said downed wires appear to be to blame for one fatality in his state.
Irene made landfall Saturday in North Carolina near Cape Lookout at the southern end of the Outer Banks. It stomped across the state for most of the day.
The storm ripped off roofs, toppled trees, induced "massive flooding" near the coast and brought down power lines statewide, according to the state emergency management division.
The hurricane unleashed 10 to 14 inches of rain over much of North Carolina and pushed a 4-foot storm surge into the Chesapeake Bay, the National Hurricane Center said.
As of midnight Saturday, Kill Devil Hills, North Carolina, had endured 31 hours of nonstop rainfall.
Reports of tornadoes came from several states, including North Carolina and Virginia -- but a final determination will have to be made by the National Weather Service.
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Old 30-08-11, 18:35   #12
 
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Default re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=Katia & Lee - WARNINGS & UPDATES

The Next One;

Tropical Storm Katia

30/8. 11amEDT - Katia Slowly Strengthening Over The Eastern Tropical Atlantic

12.3N 33.4W
Windspeed: 45 MPH - Pressure: 1003mb

Movement: Wnw at 18 MPH





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Previous Updates;

7AM Update 29 August 2011
Tropical Storm Katia formed this morning around 5AM, as it continues to move fairly fast to the west northwest. It is forecast to become a major hurricane by Sunday, but is forecast to be well northeast of the Leeward islands in the Caribbean. It is still worth watching in the Caribbean to see if it remains on the left side of the forecast cone, but odds do not favor that happen.

Current long range models have it recurving before the United States, but may bring it near Bermuda, or between Bermuda and the US. Katia is still very far out so trends should be monitored over the next week or so.

The final advisory on Jose was issued yesterday.

11PM Update 29 August 2011
No upgrade to Tropical Storm Katia just yet tonight, but it's really only a matter of time. TWELVE is arguably ever-so-close to being "there," thus likely this conservative stance by NHC will hold just until a little more data comes in, as TD12 is in a favorable environment for further development.

One change worth noting, the future track for TWELVE is looking a little more concerning tonight. Indications are that the expected opening in the ridge to its north may not last, and such a setup could keep TWELVE continuing on a more westerly course than earlier model runs suggested. However, it is far too early to take to the bank anything more than three or four days out on this system. We will have better model runs if and should Recon fly in.
Ciel

9PM Update 29 August 2011

Based on best track data, and Dvorak T numbers, it appears Tropical Depression 12 will be named Tropical Storm Katia at 11PM tonight.

Thankfully, odds currently favor it recurving out to sea as it is gaining latitude already. Katia is the name that replaced Katrina on this year's list. However, this is by no means a sure thing at this time, there will be time to watch this system over the next week.

Original Update
Irene's last NHC advisory was issued at 11pm last night, ending a very long wait and see period with Irene. Irene did cause damage, sometimes severe, but not in the areas that the media was expecting. The surge was very strong in North Carolina, the flooding rains in Vermont, upstate New York, and parts of western Massachusetts and New Hampshire were record levels, the power outages were widespread. Irene for the most part was more a major annoyance than major destruction, which is what was expected after the system's core collapsed shortly after the run through the Bahamas

Intensity forecasting remains weak, but the short-mid range track forecast was very good, and solidified fairly well once Irene passed Hispaniola. Models picked up the shift back west, but not as large as it wound up being (to head up over upstate New York and Vermont)

People with outages will gradually be regaining power over the next week or so.

Jose continues to move out to sea, and is expected to go post tropical fairly soon.

Tropical Depression twelve has formed in the far eastern Atlantic from what was 92L, it is expected to head generally west or west northwest. Although there is some time for it to change, odds favor the system recurving well before the US. The eastern Caribbean will need to watch, but it is likely to stay north of those islands as well.
END


Right now her track seems to be on line for Northern East Coast of the U.S.
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Old 03-09-11, 22:07   #13
 
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Default re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=Katia & Lee - WARNINGS & UPDATES

Tropical Storm Katia
5pm 3 September EDT - Katia Sparring With Strong Upper-level Winds
19.9N 56.8W
Windspeed: 70 MPH - Pressure: 993mb

Movement: Wnw at 10 MPH






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TROPICAL STORM KATIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS MIAMI FL AL122011
2100 UTC SAT SEP 03 2011

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 56.8W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 105SE 75SW 105NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 180SE 180SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 56.8W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 56.4W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.7N 58.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 105SE 75SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.8N 59.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 105SE 75SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 23.1N 61.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...135NE 105SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 24.3N 63.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...135NE 105SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 27.0N 66.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 135SE 120SW 135NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 29.5N 69.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 31.5N 70.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 56.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z


Thanks to
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Old 03-09-11, 22:14   #14
 
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Default re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=The THREE STORMS. Katia/Maria/Nate-WARNINGS & UPDATES

Tropical Storm Lee
5pm EDT - Soggy Lee Lumbering Northward Toward Southern Louisiana
29.4N 92.1W
Windspeed: 60 MPH - Pressure: 989mb

Movement: N at 4 MPH





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TROPICAL STORM LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS MIAMI FL AL132011
2100 UTC SAT SEP 03 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 92.1W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......200NE 175SE 0SW 95NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 92.1W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 92.1W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 29.8N 91.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 175SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 30.2N 91.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 30.5N 91.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...125NE 175SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 31.2N 89.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 175SE 90SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 33.0N 87.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 34.5N 85.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 37.0N 83.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 92.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z


Thanks to
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Old 03-09-11, 22:17   #15
 
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Default re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=The THREE STORMS. Katia/Maria/Nate-WARNINGS & UPDATES

Lee Rain Continues as it nears the Central Louisiana Coastline




7:28 AM 3 September 2011 Update
Bands of heavy rain along with tornadoes continue in the Central and Northeastern Gulf coasts, all associated with Tropical Storm Lee. It's still moving northward but still remains rather disorganized, another few days of rain is expected in the area.

Katia's holding as a category 1 hurricane, as it moves northwest, odds have slightly increased that it will recurve before the US.

1:30 PM 2 September 2011 Update
THIRTEEN has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Lee. While Lee is expected to intensify, within still weak steering currents, flooding will likely continue to be the greatest threat.

6:30 AM 2 September 2011 Update
Tropical Depression 13 remains a highly sheared, but active tropical depression.
Right now, the western side of the storm remains fairly dry, while the eastern side is extremely wet. With the shear, if the storm forms it will likely be a larger system without a strong inner core, which would make it highly unlikely to strengthen too much.

It will, however, be enough to bring large amounts of rainfall to the Northern Gulf, and some rainfall to the eastern Gulf. It is possible for the storm to be closer to a hybrid storm than a classic tight core tropical cyclone. Upwelling will also likely prevent too much intensification. The forecast calls for it to be upgraded to a Tropical Storm later today.

Texas it looks like, unfortunately, won't see much from this system.



There is virtually no movement with the storm right now, as the center is relocating more than moving, and the steering currents remain weak, which means days of the system offshore, bringing band after band of rain to Louisiana and surrounds, with heavy rain and the possibility of short lived tornadoes.

Any east facing coastal areas in the Northern Gulf will be prone to some coastal flooding with prolonged easterly winds. Winds will be slow at first, but gradually increasing through the days until the system exits. Rainfall will be very dependent on where the bands go, 5-10" is possible, some places more.

Track wise, pick a place, there is very little skill at forecasting a track of a virtually stationary tropical storm, generally anywhere in the tropical storm Warning area.

Katia remains a tropical storm this morning, and odds still marginally favor it turning out to sea before the United States. The area south of Nova Scotia may have a chance to develop before it gets into areas too cold.

Original Update
Tropical Depression 13 forms in the Gulf of Mexico about 225 miles southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi river.

Tropical Storm warnings are now up for the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline from Pascagoula, Mississippi westward to Sabine Pass, TX.



Tropical Depression 13 is forecast to become Tropical Storm Lee tomorrow. It is expected to move extremely slowly as it approaches the northern Gulf coastline, dumping very heavy rainfall.

TD#!3 is a borderline tropical depression, and is still quite disorganized at the moment and the center may "Reform" a few times before it gets its act together. Those in the Tropical Storm warning area will likely see an extended period of windy conditions with wave after wave of heavy rainfall.

Katia was downgraded to a Tropical Storm being under the influence of shear, it is forecast to regain strength later. Although odds still slightly favor recurve from the US, it is not a healthy margin and needs to be monitored over the next week or so. It appears it will go safely northeast of the Caribbean, however.
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Old 07-09-11, 01:09   #16
 
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Default re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=The THREE STORMS. Katia/Maria/Nate-WARNINGS & UPDATES

Hurricane’s 10 feet high waves to buffet the North Coast (Katia)










Santo Domingo. - Hurricane Katia is still at category 2 but expected to strengthen in the next 48 hours, according to the National Hurricane Center, which locates it at around 955 km South-Southeast of Bermuda, with maximum sustained winds of 160 kph, moving Northwest at around 19 kph.



Although Katia is in the open Atlantic, the National Meteorology Office (Onamet) forecasts waves up to 10 feet high along the entire North Coast, for which small craft should remain in port, and warns against swimming in the surf.



Onamet forecasts widely scattered showers and thunderstorms in the Central Mountains and Border Zone for the rest of the country.

Dom Today




ooooeeerrrrrrr I live on the North Coast, Im staying away from the beach for sure!!!
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Old 10-09-11, 04:03   #17
 
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Default re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=The THREE STORMS. Katia/Maria/Nate-WARNINGS & UPDATES

Category 1 Hurricane Katia
5PMEDT - Katia A Large Hurricane Over The Open North Atlantic
40.6N 62.7W
Windspeed: 85 MPH - Pressure: 970mb

Movement: Ene at 38 MPH





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HURRICANE KATIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NWS MIAMI FL AL122011
2100 UTC FRI SEP 09 2011

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.6N 62.7W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 33 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT.......200NE 220SE 170SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 420SE 300SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.6N 62.7W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.8N 64.6W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 42.6N 55.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 170SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 46.0N 44.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 60SE 60SW 45NW.
50 KT... 90NE 180SE 180SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 300SE 300SW 135NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 49.6N 33.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...105NE 240SE 240SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 390SE 390SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 53.2N 22.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 210SE 210SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 420SE 420SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 60.1N 4.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 180SE 180SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 360SE 420SW 150NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z...EAST OF ZERO DEGREES LONGITUDE

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.6N 62.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z




--------------------------

2100 UTC FRI SEP 09 2011

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.6N 62.7W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 33 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT.......200NE 220SE 170SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 420SE 300SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.6N 62.7W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.8N 64.6W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 42.6N 55.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 170SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 46.0N 44.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 60SE 60SW 45NW.
50 KT... 90NE 180SE 180SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 300SE 300SW 135NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 49.6N 33.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...105NE 240SE 240SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 390SE 390SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 53.2N 22.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 210SE 210SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 420SE 420SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 60.1N 4.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 180SE 180SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 360SE 420SW 150NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z...EAST OF ZERO DEGREES LONGITUDE

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.6N 62.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z


Thanks to
FORECASTER STEWART
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Old 10-09-11, 04:11   #18
 
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Default re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=The THREE STORMS. Katia/Maria/Nate-WARNINGS & UPDATES

Tropical Storm Maria

11pm EDT - Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Finds That Maria Remains Poorly Organized

15.1N 59.5W
Windspeed: 45 MPH - Pressure: 1006mb

Movement: Wnw at 14 MPH





CIMSS Animated Satellite:

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TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS MIAMI FL AL142011
0300 UTC SAT SEP 10 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* ST. MAARTIN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ANTIGUA...ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...NEVIS. ..SAINT
KITTS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* DOMINICA
* ST BARTHELEMY...ST MARTEEN...AND MARTINIQUE
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 59.5W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 40SE 120SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 59.5W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 59.1W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 16.2N 61.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 17.8N 63.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 19.3N 65.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 60SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 20.8N 67.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 23.5N 70.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 60SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 27.5N 71.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 34.0N 69.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 59.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z


Thanks to
FORECASTER BEVEN






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Old 10-09-11, 04:17   #19
 
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Default re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=The THREE STORMS. Katia/Maria/Nate-WARNINGS & UPDATES

Tropical Storm Nate

11pm EDT - Tropical Storm Warning Issued For Mexico

20.1N 93.2W
Windspeed: 50 MPH - Pressure: 998mb

Movement: W at 2 MPH






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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NATE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS MIAMI FL AL152011
700 PM CDT FRI SEP 09 2011

...LITTLE CHANGE WITH NATE...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 92.9W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO VERACRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO
* MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO LA CRUZ

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.9 WEST. NATE HAS
BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT A SLOW
WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF NATE
WILL APPROACH THE COAST IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND NATE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH
AREA BY LATE SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY
EARLY SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...NATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN AC***ULATIONS OF
4 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER THE
MEXICAN STATE OF VERACRUZ. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AC***ULATIONS OF 1 TO
2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF CAMPECHE AND
TABASCO.

STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT AS NATE MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.


Thanks to
FORECASTERS BLAKE/BEVEN
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Old 10-09-11, 04:24   #20
 
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Default Re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=The THREE STORMS. Katia/Maria/Nate-WARNINGS & UPD




The Three Storms


7:00AM EDT 8 September Update

Not all that much has changed since yesterday except Nate's continued southerly drifting has pretty much eliminated the chance of it moving much more northward, thus the eventual Track toward Mexico seems, by far, the most likely. It is forecast to landfall Sunday night as a hurricane in Mexico.

Katia continues to race to the northeast away from the US, eventually the remnants will likely be near Scotland Monday. Note for those in the UK, it will be a large extratropical storm, so winds will be high even into Ireland, Britain, and Wales.

Maria remains barely a tropical storm Tropical Storm Warnings are now up for the northern Leeward islands and Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico and the lower Leewards have a tropical storm watch. The odds still favor a recurve before the US, and also keep it weak the entire time.

The remnants of Tropical Storm Lee continue to dump flooding rains in the Northeast, including parts of West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Viriginia and Marlyand, (Enough to go tubing on highways in some parts)


3:45PM EDT 8 September Update

Recon found stronger winds in Nate despite a lack of a organized core and poor appearance on infrared and microwave energy. Those in along the Gulf coast will want to continue to monitor Nate as it isn't moving much, and forecast is a bit rough with stationary/meandering systems.

Maria's holding as a weak sheared Tropical Storm, which implies a more westerly movement. It's likely to continue to be sheared for days, remaining relatively weak, which suggest the trend westward may continue. Odds still favor it staying east of Florida, but it may be a close call, close enough to monitor through next week.

9:15PM EDT 7 September Update

Tropical Storms Maria and Nate both formed today, one (Maria) heading toward the Northern Leeward Islands by Saturday and another headed toward the Mexican coastline (Nate).

Katia continues to move out to sea, interestingly it may arrive near Scotland as an extratropical storm before completely losing it's identity.

The odds still favor Maria staying east of the US, but this depends on trends over the next few days.

Based on the forecast track of Nate, it will enter into Mexico as a hurricane and has very little chance of getting rain up into Texas, unfortunately.


6:45AM EDT 7 September Update
Katia's moving northwest, a bit weaker this morning and will likely travel between the US and Bermuda and make no landfall. Tropical storm watches are up for Bermuda as they may see some tropical storm force winds coming from the east side of Katia as it passes. Along the US east coast, rough surf and strong currents along the beaches will likely continue.

Tropical Depression 14 is likely to become a Tropical Storm later today, and is forecast to near the northern Leeward islands on Satruday, those in that area should watch closely. Beyond that see the forecast lounge. Summary, it appears this system will stay just east of the US, but may get uncomfortably close, those in the Bahamas will likely want to watch it. Those in the US will want to watch the second half of next week, but currently odds only slightly favor it staying just east.. Aircraft recon is scheduled to check it out later today.

The area in the Gulf (96L) may develop today or tomorrow and move slowly, eventually drifting northward, those in the Northern gulf will want to watch this later. Dry air on the west side and shear will likely keep this system from getting too strong, however.

The other area near the Leeward islands likely won't develop in the near term, but may need to be watched if it remains intact as it moves into the Western Caribbean.

5PM EDT Sept. 6 Update
Invest 95L has become TD#14. At this time, FOURTEEN is expected to continue generally west to west-northwest through marginally favorable conditions for the next several days, and may become a concern for the northern islands later this week.

Meanwhile, the tail end of Lee's feeder leg which has merged with a stalled cold front over the Bay of Campeche in the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico are beginning to show some signs of organization, and a Tropical Cyclone could develop in this region over the course of the next few days. This feature is being tracked as Invest 96L. Movement is presently estimated to be towards the south, or southeast, but there is a fair chance that this course reverses. Unless 96L does hook back around, it may just rain out over land south of the Bay of Campeche, or even cross over into the eastern Pacific.






Ciel
Original Update

Tennessee is currently getting the most rain from the remnants of Lee, as well as Mississippi, Alabama, Northwest Georgia.and Western North Carolina. Heavy, flooding rains, will be a problem there over the next day or two. Strong thunderstorms and possible tornadoes may occur along with the remnants of Lee.

The winds on the dry, west side of lee have fanned fires in Texas.

Hurricane Katia is nearing major hurricane status this afternoon, but the forecast track keeps it away from any land.

A new wave, east of the Caribbean in the Atlantic, designated 95L, is the one to watch over the upcoming week. Those in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico especially.







Beyond that odds currently favor a recurve away from the US with the trough over the United States. But it may be a close call. Based on the long range models and heading for a similar period, this one has a much better chance to affect the US coast than Katia ever did, however, so it is justifiably worth watching once the system develops. It currently has a 60% chance of development over the next two days.
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Old 13-09-11, 03:03   #21
 
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Default re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season= Ophelia-WARNINGS & UPDATES

Tropical Storm Maria

11pm EDT - Maria Inching Northwestward With Little Change In Strength
21.3N 67.5W
Windspeed: 50 MPH - Pressure: 1006mb

Movement: Nw at 2 MPH





CIMSS Animated Satellite:

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 PM AST MON SEP 12 2011

...MARIA INCHING NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 67.5W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM E OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 780 MI...1250 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.5 WEST. MARIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED BY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN AC***ULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER THE
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY.

WIND...WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
EXTREME NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.


Thanks to
FORECASTERS KIMBERLAIN/PASCH



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Old 24-09-11, 00:45   #22
 
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Default re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=ALBERTO-WARNINGS & UPDATES

Tropical Storm Ophelia
5pm 23/9 EDT -

Ophelia Strengthens As It Wobbles West-northwestward
15.5N 53.8W
Windspeed: 60 MPH - Pressure: 1001mb
Movement: Wnw at 15 MPH




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TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS MIAMI FL AL162011
500 PM AST FRI SEP 23 2011

DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED NEAR AND OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 50
KT BASED ON FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 60 KT AND BELIEVABLE SFMR SURFACE
WINDS OF 50-51 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/13...AFTER ONCE AGAIN HAVING TO SMOOTH
THROUGH ALL OF THE WIGGLES AND WOBBLES IN THE TRACK. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER LIKELY PULLED
THE BARELY-CLOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER NORTHWESTWARD...
WHICH IS BELIEVED TO BE A TEMPORARY MOTION. OTHERWISE...THERE HAS
BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. MOST OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT DUE TO THE MORE NORTHWARD
INITIAL POSITION...BUT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
OPHELIA IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO REMAIN QUITE
STRONG...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING IN A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. BY 72 HOURS
AND BEYOND...THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO ERODE
AS A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE
BAHAMAS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE OPHELIA TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN
NORTHWESTWARD BY DAYS 3-4...AND THEN ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL NORTHWARD
TURN BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND LIES NEAR THE SOUTHERN OR LEFT SIDE
OF THE NHC GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

ALTHOUGH THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL IS ASSESSING NEAR 20 KT OF
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ACROSS THE CYCLONE...THE UW-CIMSS MID-LEVEL
SHEAR ANALYSES INDICATE THE SHEAR IS 15 KT OR LESS. THIS HAS LIKELY
ALLOWED THE RECENT RESURGENCE IN INNER CORE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...
THIS BRIEF RESPITE IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS ALL OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE VERTICAL SHEAR TO INCREASE TO
MORE THAN 25 KT IN 12-18 HOURS. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FLUCTUATIONS IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 96
HOURS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE WAXING AND WANING OF THE CENTRAL
DEEP CONVECTION...BUT THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR GRADUAL
WEAKENING TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...BY DAY 5...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE AS THE SHEAR DECREASES AND OPHELIA MOVES UNDERNEATH OR
NEAR A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 15.5N 53.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 16.3N 55.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 17.5N 58.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 18.6N 60.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 19.7N 61.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 21.8N 64.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 24.0N 66.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 26.5N 67.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

Thanks to
FORECASTER STEWART
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Old 25-10-11, 12:00   #23
 
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Default re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=ALBERTO-WARNINGS & UPDATES

Hurrican Rina Picks Up Stream Near Central America.




Miami -- Rina strengthened to a Category 2 hurricane in the western Caribbean early Tuesday, packing 100 mph winds, the National Hurricane Center in Miami reported.
"Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so and Rina could become a major hurricane by tonight or early Wednesday," the center said.
The developments came as the search continued for more than two dozen missing storm evacuees from Nicaragua.
A navy boat ferrying people between the Miskito Cays and Puerto Cabezas, on Nicaragua's eastern coast, was reported missing on Sunday, according to Vice Adm. Roger Gonzalez of the Nicaraguan navy. Twenty-seven people were on board, he said.
At 5 a.m. ET, Rina was centered about 210 miles (335 kilometers) southwest of Grand Cayman and about 320 miles (515 kilometers) east-southeast of Chetumal, Mexico. It was moving to the west-northwest at 3 mph (5 kph).
A hurricane watch has been posted for the east coast of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula from north of Punta Gruesa to Cancun. A tropical storm watch is in effect from Chetumal to Punta Gruesa.
On its projected path, Rina will approach the peninsula -- home to many of Mexico's top tourist spots -- by Thursday morning.
"It is too early to speculate what, if any effects Rina will have on the U.S., but after the storm makes landfall in the Yucatan, the combination of land interaction and high shear that is forecast into the Gulf of Mexico is expected to weaken Rina as it begins to turn toward the northeast toward Cuba, or perhaps South Florida or the Bahamas," said CNN meteorologist Dave Hennen.
The storm is expected to dump a total of 2 to 4 inches of rain over the Cayman Islands.
Flood-soaked Central America also braced for more rain as Rina lumbered along.
In Nicaragua and Honduras, where flooding and mudslides have affected thousands and killed dozens of people, authorities issued alerts warning residents that more precipitation could be on the way.
October marks the end of the rainy season in the region and is when the area is most susceptible to flooding because the ground is already saturated, CNN International weather anchor Mari Ramos said.
Heavy rains have hit Honduras for several weeks, killing at least 29 people, according to government statistics.
In Guatemala, 39 people have been killed and thousands remain at risk, the state-run AGN news agency reported.
Civil protection officials in El Salvador reported 34 rain-related deaths. And Nicaragua has reported at least 12 deaths.
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Old 27-10-11, 00:27   #24
 
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Default re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=ALBERTO-WARNINGS & UPDATES

UpDate:

Hurricane RINA (18L)

Hurricane RINA Forecast Track (National Hurricane Center)




Continued--
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Old 27-10-11, 00:31   #25
 
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Default re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=ALBERTO-WARNINGS & UPDATES

Hurricane RINA Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 26 Oct 2011 23:45:40 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 26 Oct 2011 21:03:28 GMT ]]


Cancun, Mexico (CNN) -- After weakening to a Category 1 storm, Hurricane Rina plodded westward Wednesday evening at 6 mph (9 kph) on a path toward Mexico's tourist beaches, its threat a real one to people on the Yucatan Peninsula but far diminished from what it had been earlier in the day.
"We don't expect them to get a major hurricane, but they are going to get a hurricane," said Dennis Feltgen, a spokesman for the National Hurricane Center in Miami. "They need to get their preparations done now; they cannot let their guard down at all." By Wednesday evening, tropical storm force winds were already along the east coast of Yucatan, he said. Those conditions are expected to spread northward during the night.
Rina will make landfall either along or on the northeast coast of the Yucatan as a hurricane sometime on Thursday, depending on whether it picks up forward speed overnight, he said.
But it will not make landfall on U.S. soil, dying out instead over Cuba, he predicted. "In five days, we've got it as a tropical depression over western Cuba on its way down," he said. "It's just going to get sheared apart."
"The weather is favoring us," said Juan Gabriel Granados, operations director for state civil protection in Chetumal about the storm's weakened strength. "Everything is normal."
No evacuations had been ordered in the state of Quintana Roo, which includes Cozumel and Cancun, and none were anticipated, said Granados.
As of 5 p.m. ET, the storm was packing maximum sustained winds near 85 mph (140 kph) and was centered about 170 miles (275 km) south southeast of Cozumel, the National Hurricane Center said in its advisory.
A hurricane warning was in effect for the northeast coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from north of Punta Gruesa to San Felipe and a tropical storm warning was in effect for the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Chetumal to Punta Gruesa and for the north coast of the Yucatan peninsula west of San Felipe to Progreso.
The storm was expected to turn gradually northward and slightly increase its forward speed overnight and Thursday. Rina's center will be near or over the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday, the center said.
Hurricane force winds extended outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extended outward up to 105 miles (165 km).
Rina will likely drop 8 to 16 inches of rain over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula and Cozumel through Friday, it said. A storm surge of as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast near and to the right of the track of the center is expected -- accompanied by large waves, it said.
Its threat earlier in the day as nearly a Category 3 hurricane had prompted residents and tourists to make preparations to leave, and many tourists found themselves stranded when they could not find flights out of Cancun.
Joanne Andrews, 62, of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, said she, her daughter and their two cousins had planned their trip to Cancun for a year, but the trip was not turning out as hoped. "We were upset," she said. "We waited a long time to come here and we thought we were going to have fun."
Earlier in the day, Cancun cab driver Salvador Coba Millan, 40, expressed concern that Rina could deal the local economy a body blow.
Hurricane Wilma in 2005, he recalled, "was a very big hurricane that stayed on top of us for three days." Afterward, he said, "there was no work. Cancun was left in a very sad state. I remember that it took a year for Cancun to recover. There was no work for the first six months. People didn't return until after a year later."
Some tourists decided not to take any chances.
"We wanted to get out of there. ... We were on vacation and just didn't want to be stressed," said Kathy Davis, 57, an American with a timeshare property in Cancun.
She said she and her husband celebrated their 25th wedding anniversary at the airport while waiting to catch a flight.
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Old 27-10-11, 12:56   #26
 
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Default re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=ALBERTO-WARNINGS & UPDATES

Update-Rina Closer To Cangun.

Location: 18.9°N 87.0°W
Max sustained: 75 mph
Moving: NW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 988 mb



Cancun, Mexico -- Hurricane Rina neared some of Mexico's most popular beaches Thursday, sending residents fleeing inland.
The Category 1 hurricane was packing 75 mph winds Thursday morning, but forecasters said it could weaken into a tropical storm later in the day.
Rina is expected to skim the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday night and into Friday, forecasters said.
"The weather is favoring us," said Juan Gabriel Granados, operations director for Quintana Roo civil protection in Chetumal, about the storm's weakened strength. "Everything is normal."
Quintana Roo includes the resort towns of Cancun and Cozumel.
Still, people from the islands of Holbox and Mujeres were being evacuated, he said. About 50,000 coastal residents whose housing was considered "vulnerable" have moved inland to stay with relatives or friends, he said.
Alcohol sales were banned as of 7 p.m. Wednesday; transportation to Cozumel had been banned since 5 p.m., he added.
"We're meeting every six hours with officials at the state and municipal levels to assess the situation," he said.
Beach-front businesses in Playa del Carmen boarded up ahead of the storm, as surfers took advantage of the choppy seas, according to CNN iReporter Guillermo Camarena.
"They need to get their preparations done now; they cannot let their guard down at all," said Dennis Feltgen, a spokesman for the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
Tropical storm force winds were already evident along the east coast of the Yucatan, Feltgen said. Those conditions are expected to spread northward overnight.
But it will not make landfall on U.S. soil, dying out instead over Cuba, Feltgen predicted. "In five days, we've got it as a tropical depression over western Cuba on its way down," he said. "It's just going to get sheared apart."
As of 8 a.m. ET, the storm was packing maximum sustained winds near 75 mph (120 kph) with higher gusts and was centered about 115 miles (190 kilometers) south of Cozumel and about 90 miles (145 kilometers) east-northeast of Chetumal, the National Hurricane Center said. Rina was moving to the northwest near 6 mph (9 kph).
"A gradual turn to the north with a slight increase in forward speed is expected today," the Hurricane Center said.
Rina will likely drop 6 to 10 inches of rain over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula and Cozumel through Friday, with isolated amounts of up to 14 inches, the center said.
A storm surge of as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast is expected.
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Old 28-10-11, 13:35   #27
 
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Default re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=ALBERTO-WARNINGS & UPDATES

Todays update on Rina:



Rina Weakens To a Tropical Storm, Batters Cancun.

Location: 21.3°N 86.9°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: NNE at 4 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb

Cancun, Mexico-- A weakened Tropical Storm Rina whipped the Mexican resort communities of the Yucatan Peninsula early Friday as it lost more of its punch.
The storm was buffeting the Mayan Riviera area with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph (85 kph), according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center.
Rina will likely drop 3 to 6 inches of rain over the eastern part of the peninsula and Cozumel through Friday, with isolated amounts of up to 10 inches, according to the Miami-based weather agency.
A storm surge of as much as 1 to 2 feet above normal tide levels along the coast is expected, "accompanied by large and dangerous waves," forecasters said.
Rina's eye was about 15 miles west-northwest of Cancun, Mexico, on Friday morning.
"This general motion is expected to continue for the next 12 hours or so," the hurricane center said. "Rina should then begin a southward drift back to the northwestern Caribbean Sea and remain there for a few days."
Rina is expected to fizzle out over the next 48 hours.
Authorities took numerous precautionary measures ahead of the storm, while numerous businesses in neighboring Cancun and elsewhere shut down in anticipation.
"First we're thinking, we're stranded in Cancun, there could be worse things," said Amelie Jarvis, a tourist from Canada. "But then we noticed that everything is closed. I don't know what we're going to do."
Thousands of people have been evacuated from islands and coastal areas, boating has been banned and several shelters have opened.
Evacuees include about 50,000 residents of Quintana Roo state, which includes the resort towns of Cancun and Cozumel, because their housing was considered "vulnerable," said Juan Gabriel Granados, operations director for state civil protection. Most have moved inland to stay with relatives or friends, he added.
"We're asking both (residents) and tourists to remain calm," Granados said. "The state and local governments are ready ."
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Old 14-05-12, 06:58   #28
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Default re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=ALBERTO-WARNINGS & UPDATES

The first tropical disturbance of the season. This comes 2 weeks before the official start of hurricane season, June 1. The official start doesn't mean one can't come before or after the end of the season. It just means that the majority come during that time.

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Old 14-05-12, 19:39   #29
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Default re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=ALBERTO-WARNINGS & UPDATES

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
130 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012



FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW ABOUT
450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN AZORES ISLANDS REMAINS
MINIMAL. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. NO ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS ON THIS
SYSTEM ARE ANTICIPATED. ROUTINE ISSUANCE OF THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BEGIN ON 1 JUNE 2012.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


As is mentioned in both the text and the 0 in the image, for the next 48 hours, no development is expected on this tropical distrubance. This is an early one and there won't yet be enough heat in the water to support sustained growth of a large storm. That comes a bit later in the season. Water surface temperature should be in the area of 80°F for sustained development.
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Old 19-05-12, 18:15   #30
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Default re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=ALBERTO-WARNINGS & UPDATES

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1155 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012



FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
HAS BEGUN TO ACQUIRE MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE...AND IT COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD OR WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...
PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE
ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Old 20-05-12, 17:16   #31
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Default re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=ALBERTO-WARNINGS & UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012 1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

...ALBERTO WEAKENS A LITTLE...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION -----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...31.5N 79.7W ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM ESE OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
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Old 21-05-12, 17:55   #32
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Default re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=ALBERTO-WARNINGS & UPDATES

Tropical Storm ALBERTO



WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST. ALBERTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALBERTO IS EXPECTED
TO STAY OFFSHORE OF THE GEORGIA AND CAROLINA COASTS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR
FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
STORM LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND
SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA.
=============================

TD TWO-E



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
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Old 22-05-12, 18:07   #33
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Default re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=ALBERTO-WARNINGS & UPDATES

...ALBERTO BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY...



SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.1N 74.0W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM SSE OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

==============================================

...BUD MAINTAINING 40-MPH WINDS...



SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 104.0W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
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Old 23-05-12, 17:31   #34
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Default re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=Beryl-WARNINGS & UPDATES

...BUD FINALLY STRENGTHENS...



SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 107.6W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
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Old 24-05-12, 07:09   #35
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Default re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=Beryl-WARNINGS & UPDATES

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...



1. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS NO WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION...
AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR ZERO PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
AND PORTIONS OF CUBA...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE BAHAMAS. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE OR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. NO ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS FOR THIS SYSTEM ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.



...BUD BECOMES A HURRICANE...



SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 107.7W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTO SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO LA FORTUNA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

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Old 24-05-12, 18:27   #36
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Default re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=Beryl-WARNINGS & UPDATES


FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...



1. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS AND
FLORIDA BAY...HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 30 MPH AND WIND
GUSTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER
OVER WATER. CURRENTLY...THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW REMAINS DISORGANIZED DUE TO STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SATURDAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

REGARDLESS OF ANY DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...
FLOODING...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...THE
FLORIDA KEYS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND THE BAHAMAS. ANOTHER SPECIAL
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


...BUD STILL INTENSIFYING...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE EN ROUTE
TO INVESTIGATE...



SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 106.5W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.


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Old 25-05-12, 17:29   #37
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Default re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=Beryl-WARNINGS & UPDATES

Eastern side

...SPECIAL FEATURE...



A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 33N76W TO 30N78W TO A 1009 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N78W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N85W...THROUGH THE GULF
OF HONDURAS TO WESTERN EL SALVADOR. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W...AND FROM
18N TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 78W AND 83W.
THIS PRECIPITATION ALSO COVERS PARTS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS. THIS AREA HAS BEEN CLOUDY AND RAINY FOR THE
LAST FOUR TO FIVE DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THE LOW CENTER SHOULD
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN ON SATURDAY. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...
FLOODING...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA. RESIDENTS
WHO LIVE ALONG AND/OR WHO OWN PROPERTY THAT IS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. PLEASE
READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE THAT IS IN YOUR AREA FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON THIS SITUATION.

=============================================
Western side

...BUD WEAKENS SOME...STILL A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...



SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 105.6W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.


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Old 26-05-12, 17:46   #38
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Default re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=Beryl-WARNINGS & UPDATES

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...



1. SATELLITE PICTURES AND REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY 41002 INDICATE THAT
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF CHARLESTON
SOUTH CAROLINA...IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND HAS DEVELOPED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED LATER TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LITTLE MOTION IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION
SHOULD BEGIN TOMORROW AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. COASTAL
INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CUBA AND
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...AND PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.



FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD...WHICH HAS DISSIPATED NEAR CABO CORRIENTES
MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


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Old 26-05-12, 23:19   #39
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Default re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=Beryl-WARNINGS & UPDATES



Beryl's center is exposed this morning and little if any strengthening is expected, the convection is mostly to the northeast and the system continues to look ragged.

The tropical storm warning area should continue to look for possible tropical storm conditions, but saying that, Beryl is a sheared subtropical system, so winds may be brisk for a larger area than normal, and rainfall, unfortunately for north Florida and Georgia, will only be marginal. (And if Beryl remains sheared, most of the rainfall may be on the northern side)

It is forecast for the storm to gain some strength as it leaves the area of shear, if the center remains intact, so it remains prudent to watch this system, especially as it moves over the Gulf, for any strengthening trends. The most likely idea is that it stays about the same or weaker as it is now all the way into landfall.

The current most likely region for landfall is just north of the Jacksonville area, behind and the north side of the system are by far the more wet sides currently. If Beryl managed to become more organized more rain will be along with the southern sections. Either way, not a good weekend to be at the N. Florida/GA/Southern SC beaches.

The actual Atlantic Hurricane season doesn't begin until June 1st, a milder winter has given rise to slightly better conditions earlier for pre-season development, but it also implies most of the storms this year will be sheared more often, with only a few exceptions possibly making it to something stronger.. more likely later in the season.

Advisories have begun on Subtropical Storm Beryl with maximum sustained winds currently estimated at 45MPH.

Beryl is nearly colocated with a mid to upper level low, which has been imparting shear on the cyclone, and forcing it to ingest much of the dry air currently over the southeastern US and Gulf of Mexico. These factors have served to slow its development, and will continue to do so, but it is expected that the shear will continue to gradually slacken somewhat over the weekend.

Beryl is forecast to approach the southeast coast by Sunday, bringing blustery winds and squally rains. At this time it is not exactly clear how far inland the cyclone will progress, but it is expected to make at least one landfall before being ejected back out to sea.

Because of this timing, Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued from the Brevard/Volusia county line in Florida northward into Ernesto Beach, SC.

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Old 27-05-12, 19:10   #40
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Default re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=Beryl-WARNINGS & UPDATES





Subtropical Storm Beryl is moving a bit faster to the west-southwest this morning as it approaches northern Florida. It is likely to landfall late tonight bringing some rain to a drought ridden north Florida/Southern Georgia.

That said, a lot of dry air remains in Beryl so it will likely not be a "drought-buster" but it will help some. Quite a bit of dry air remains in the system, which is the primary factor preventing it from transitioning to full tropical and strengthening right now.

Wind wise it will likely be breezy with 45 mph winds along the coast within the Warning areas and a generally nasty evening. The wind field is large because of the subtropical nature, so winds will pick up this morning and gradually increase into the evening. The strongest winds are on the northeast side of the system.

Beryl has little time left to strengthen or transition to a pure tropical system, and the official forecast is to basically keep it as it is now, as a subtropical storm until landfall.

This morning has seen Beryl remain quite symmetrical, and rain bands have been forming on the southwest, so landfall as it is or slightly stronger seems most likely. It is not a good beach day along the coastal warnings, unless you are a surfer. Beware of rip currents, however.


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Old 28-05-12, 15:58   #41
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Default re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=Beryl-WARNINGS & UPDATES



Tropical Storm Beryl made landfall near Jacksonville Beach, Florida, at 1210AM EDT as a 70MPH tropical storm. At midnight Jacksonville NAS had sustained winds of 39mph gusting to 54mph and the Tropical Storm Warnings are still in effect. Beryl will continue to slowly move westward on Monday and weaken to a Tropical Depression in about 24 - 30 hours or less.
Heavy rainfall is still likely over northern Florida and southern Georgia on Monday and Tuesday. Tropical rain squalls are likely over the Florida peninsula on Monday. Rip currents continue as a threat along the coasts of Florida, Georgia and South Carolina.


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Old 29-05-12, 20:15   #42
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Default re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=Beryl-WARNINGS & UPDATES





Monday, May 28, 1230AM
Tropical Storm Beryl made landfall near Jacksonville Beach, Florida, at 1210AM EDT as a 70MPH tropical storm. At midnight Jacksonville NAS had sustained winds of 39mph gusting to 54mph and the Tropical Storm Warnings are still in effect. Beryl will continue to slowly move westward on Monday and weaken to a Tropical Depression in about 24 - 30 hours or less.
Heavy rainfall is still likely over northern Florida and southern Georgia on Monday and Tuesday. Tropical rain squalls are likely over the Florida peninsula on Monday. Rip currents continue as a threat along the coasts of Florida, Georgia and South Carolina.

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Old 31-05-12, 02:46   #43
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Default re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=Hurricane Carlotta-WARNINGS & UPDATES

...BERYL IS NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY...



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Old 15-06-12, 17:48   #44
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Default re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=Hurricane Carlotta-WARNINGS & UPDATES

Hurricane Carlotta
Eastern Pacific



WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ TO ACAPULCO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF SALINA CRUZ TO BARRA DE TONALA
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO
CABO CORRIENTES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOTTA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


Hurricane Carlotta is expected to exit Mexico back into the ocean, turn south and could possibly be in the Atlantic next week.

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Last edited by photostill; 15-06-12 at 18:22.
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Default re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=Storm Debbie-WARNINGS & UPDATES

Wont affect us thank goodness,,,although our Hurricane Season is getting closer. I changed the title of the thread to Hurricane Carlotta
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Old 17-06-12, 18:54   #46
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Default re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=Storm Debbie-WARNINGS & UPDATES



FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY. THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS A LOW CHANCE...
20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE THREAT
FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

*edit*
Symbols are
D= Depression
S= Tropical Storm
1= Hurricane class 1

I followed this storm because at one point it was predicted to enter the Gulf Of Mexico.

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Last edited by photostill; 17-06-12 at 19:04.
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Old 20-06-12, 02:42   #47
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Default re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=Storm Debbie-WARNINGS & UPDATES



THE GALE FORCE LOW IN THE NW ATLC HAS NOW GAINED ENOUGH
CONVECTION AND ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS TROPICAL STORM
CHRIS. AS OF 2100 UTC...T.S. CHRIS IS LOCATED AT 39.3N
57.7W...OR ABOUT 490 NM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40
KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. CHRIS IS MOVING E AT 7 KT. MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE STORM CENTER. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 FOR
MORE DETAILS.



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Old 20-06-12, 16:22   #48
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Default re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=Storm Debbie-WARNINGS & UPDATES



http://i.imgur.com/7RyjL.png
Larger scale image

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE UPPER LOW OVER NE MEXICO REMAINS NEAR 26N99W COVERING THE NW
GULF WHILE A SECOND UPPER LOW OVER THE NE GULF APPEARS TO BE
WEAKENING THIS MORNING AND IS CENTERED NEAR 28N87W. THE S GULF
IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN. LOW
LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH OPPOSING UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N
E OF 90W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND OVER FLORIDA FROM
LAKE OKEECHOBEE SOUTHWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE W GULF S OF 16N W OF 94W AND OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N BETWEEN 90W-94W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W GULF W OF 93W. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE E GULF ANCHORED
BY A 1022 MB HIGH ABOUT 300 NM WNW OF BERMUDA. A SURFACE TROUGH
IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE SE GULF THIS
MORNING. ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER YUCATAN AND
MOVE INTO THE S CENTRAL GULF THU THEN DRIFT NW TO NEAR 24N93W
SUN WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS GIVING THE MOST OF CARIBBEAN ENE FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN FROM W CUBA NEAR 22N84W
ALONG 19N87W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 15N88W. SCATTERED TO
HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 18N TO
INLAND OVER CUBA BETWEEN 75W-83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 14N E OF 66W
INCLUDING THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MOVE NW ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
TODAY. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL MOVE INTO
THE SE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING THEN BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN THU. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE SE
CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN.

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Old 21-06-12, 17:03   #49
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Default re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=Storm Debbie-WARNINGS & UPDATES




GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL NW TO THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS COAST COVERING ALL BUT THE FAR
NE GULF. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO THE W OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 92W TO
INLAND OVER MEXICO AND TEXAS. AN UPPER LOW IS INLAND OVER S
ALABAMA EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH TO OVER THE FAR NE GULF. THE
ACTIVITY OVER THE E GULF IS DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION ABOVE. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF AS A NEW LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER YUCATAN
TODAY AND MOVE INTO THE S CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SAT POSSIBLY AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK NE TO THE E
GULF SUN AND MON.



Forecast for Gulf of Mexico disturbance
Wind shear is predicted to remain in the moderate to high range through Friday. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the Northern Gulf of Mexico; this dry air is probably too far away to significantly interfere with development. I expect we will see an increase in the disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity today as a result of less interfence from dry air. By Saturday, our two top models, the European model (ECMWF) and GFS, predict that wind shear could fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, which would potentially allow the disturbance to approach tropical depression status by Sunday. A trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast on Sunday, as predicted by the GFS model, which takes the disturbance across Florida on Sunday, and into the waters off the coast of South Carolina by Monday. The GFS does not develop the disturbance while it is in the Gulf of Mexico, but suggests it could develop into a tropical or subtropical depression off the coast of South Carolina Monday or Tuesday. The latest ECMWF model run (00 UTC) predicts that this through will not be strong enough to pull the disturbance northeastwards across Florida, and the disturbance will instead linger in the Gulf of Mexico for many days, giving it time to develop into a tropical depression next week. The UKMET and NOGAPS models predict a more westward drift, with the disturbance affecting the Mexico/Texas border region 6 - 7 days from now. At this point, we can't rule out any location in the Gulf being affected by this system, though the Gulf coast of Florida has the highest probability of seeing impacts. NHC is giving the disturbance a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning. This is a reasonable forecast, and the odds will probably rise by Friday, and I give the disturbance a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning.

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Old 23-06-12, 17:19   #50
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Default re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=Storm Debbie-WARNINGS & UPDATES





96L is still quite a jumper. Between 6AM EDT and 9AM EDT, the LLC re-centered, "jumped," yet again. Such is often the pattern of underdeveloped, or marginally developed, tropical cyclones.

So now the LLC is centered roughly near 26N 88W, and looks to be drifting slowly to the west. However, despite this present westward slide, the net effect of all of these jumps has been to establish the system appreciably farther north, and it now lies in the east-central Gulf of Mexico, putting coastal locations along the eastern Gulf of Mexico under greater risk from rip currents and minor flooding, earlier than might have been anticipated by many.

Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are likely to be issued sooner rather than later, and may even go out before the cyclone is named, but unfortunately, any watches that would go up now would have to cover an unusually wide area, given the uncertainties that still exists, so it is prudent that NHC waits until the next round of model runs and today's recon flight. However, by holding off, is also possible that should 96L be upgraded (virtually a 100% likelihood), it is upgraded strait to a tropical storm, potentially even in the 45-55 MPH range.

If named, Debby would be the earliest fourth named storm in the Atlantic, not to mention make this the first June on record with a fourth named storm in the basin.

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