India, Pakistan to Escape Worst of Tropical Cyclone Nilofar
October 31, 2014
Tropical Cyclone Nilofar will be far from the dangerous state it reached earlier this week when it impacts India and Pakistan; however, localized downpours are still a threat.
Nilofar reached its peak intensity on Tuesday with maximum sustained winds of nearly 215 kph (135 mph), making Nilofar a very severe cyclonic storm and the equivalent of a minimal Category 4 hurricane in the eastern Pacific or Atlantic basins.
Nilofar is now losing its battle with disruptive wind shear (strong winds above the surface), which has caused the cyclone to weaken to the equivalent of a tropical storm. Nilofar will continue to weaken through Friday.
The cyclone will eventually become very disorganized with its showers and thunderstorms getting drawn away from its center and pulled northeastward into southeast Pakistan and India's northern Gujarat state while the storm remains several hundred miles away.
Shower and thunderstorm activity will stream across far southeastern Pakistan, including Karachi and Hyderabad, and India's northern Gujarat state through Friday.
Widespread life-threatening flooding rain is not anticipated. However, localized downpours can still occur and cause isolated flash flooding.
The greatest opportunity for the downpours will come if Nilofar's center manages to follow the showers and thunderstorms into Pakistan and India; however, this appears unlikely given the amount of shear that Nilofar is currently experiencing.
Even if the center of Nilofar were to reach the coastline, these areas will escape any widespread damaging winds as the cyclone would weaken to a tropical depression before moving inland.
A more likely scenario is that Nilofar's center will get left behind in the northeastern Arabian Sea. In this scenario, Nilofar's center will become nothing more than a swirl of clouds with a few showers and wind less than 40 kph (25 mph) by Sunday.
Despite Nilofar rapidly weakening, rough seas will continue to create dangerous conditions for boaters in the northern Arabian Sea through Friday. Hazards for swimmers will also exist along the coasts of Oman, eastern Iran, Pakistan and northwestern India.
The rough seas danger will diminish this weekend as whatever is left of Nilofar dissipates over the Arabian Sea or near the coast of Northwest India.
Meteorologist Eric Leister contributed to this story.