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Old 21-08-14, 13:43   #106
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Important PhOtOs-WARNING For Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico/US

Where is the Disturbance Now?




Infrared Satellite





As shown in the infrared satellite image above, the general area of disturbed weather is a few hundred miles east of the Windward Islands.


A tropical disturbance in the Atlantic Ocean nearing the Lesser Antilles is still being closely monitored for potential development into a tropical depression or tropical storm.

Nearing the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, there are several possibilities that may portend an ominous future for this disturbance in the Caribbean and, possibly, parts of the U.S.

Here's what we know now – and don't know – about this potential tropical threat.

Convection (translation: thunderstorms) started to become better organized Wednesday evening, but is now struggling again Thursday morning. This lack of persistent convection in one location has been unable to form a distinct surface low pressure circulation, so far.

The National Hurricane Center has tentatively scheduled an investigation of this disturbance by the Hurricane Hunters this afternoon to determine whether a surface low pressure circulation – which requires not only the east or northeast winds typically found in the Northern Hemisphere tropics, but also a westerly wind – is present.

If both convection and a closed surface low exist, the NHC would initiate advisories on either Tropical Depression Four or Tropical Storm Cristobal, depending on the magnitude of winds measured by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft.

This is the first hurdle for this system to clear.

Caribbean Impact



Possible Development Area





Rain and gusty winds will spread through the Caribbean through the weekend, regardless of what the system is called.


The system should spread rain and gusty winds into the Lesser Antilles Thursday, and into the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic late Thursday into Friday and Friday night.

It remains uncertain at this time whether the system will remain a disturbance, will have become a tropical depression or, at most, a tropical storm.


(FORECASTS: St. Thomas | St. Croix | San Juan)

This weekend the system should spread rain from east to west into Haiti, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, southeast Bahamas, Jamaica, Cuba and possibly the Cayman Islands.

Local flash flooding is a possibility, particularly over mountainous terrain of Puerto Rico, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica and eastern Cuba.


(FORECASTS: Punta Cana, Dominican Republic | Ocho Rios | Grand Cayman)

Again, it remains to be seen whether the system will be Cristobal, a depression or still a fledgling tropical disturbance, which will also, of course, factor into other potential impacts, including winds, coastal flooding and high surf. A track over more land would also limit development of the system in the Caribbean.


U.S. Threat?




Steering Ingredients





To be clear, it is still too soon to determine if this system will have any impacts on the mainland U.S.
A crucial player in determining if the U.S. will be impacted appears to be a southward dip in the jet stream expected to carve out over the western Atlantic Ocean.

There appear to be three scenarios at this time:


1) Avoiding the U.S.: If the system tracks farther north in the Caribbean, and the jet stream dip is sufficiently strong and penetrates far enough south, the system may turn sharply north, then northeast after leaving the Bahamas. In this scenario, the U.S. coast would be missed – except for perhaps some high surf next week.

2) East Coast threat: If the system tracks north of Cuba and Hispanola, but either isn't pulled far enough north by the jet stream dip or the jet stream dip passes by into the north Atlantic, it may slowly crawl up a sizable swath of the Eastern seaboard, from Florida at least to North Carolina next week.

3) Gulf Coast threat: If the system remains relatively far south in the Caribbean Sea, it may not get tugged north by the jet stream dip, instead tracking into the Gulf of Mexico, possibly intensifying in a favorable atmosphere with warm water temperatures. In this scenario, the U.S. Gulf Coast may be threatened mid-late next week.

Forecast uncertainty is typically very high several days out even in cases of a well-defined tropical cyclone, which we don't have yet. Therefore, we cannot take any of those three scenarios completely off the table yet.
All interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast and East Coast should closely monitor the progress of this system.


Hurricane Strikes: U.S.



Hurricane strikes by county from 1900-2010 along the U.S. East and Gulf coasts.


Check back with us at Dreamteamdownloads1 for Updates on this Potential Threat.
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