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Old 21-06-12, 17:03   #49
photostill
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Default re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=Storm Debbie-WARNINGS & UPDATES




GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL NW TO THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS COAST COVERING ALL BUT THE FAR
NE GULF. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO THE W OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 92W TO
INLAND OVER MEXICO AND TEXAS. AN UPPER LOW IS INLAND OVER S
ALABAMA EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH TO OVER THE FAR NE GULF. THE
ACTIVITY OVER THE E GULF IS DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION ABOVE. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF AS A NEW LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER YUCATAN
TODAY AND MOVE INTO THE S CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SAT POSSIBLY AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK NE TO THE E
GULF SUN AND MON.



Forecast for Gulf of Mexico disturbance
Wind shear is predicted to remain in the moderate to high range through Friday. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the Northern Gulf of Mexico; this dry air is probably too far away to significantly interfere with development. I expect we will see an increase in the disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity today as a result of less interfence from dry air. By Saturday, our two top models, the European model (ECMWF) and GFS, predict that wind shear could fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, which would potentially allow the disturbance to approach tropical depression status by Sunday. A trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast on Sunday, as predicted by the GFS model, which takes the disturbance across Florida on Sunday, and into the waters off the coast of South Carolina by Monday. The GFS does not develop the disturbance while it is in the Gulf of Mexico, but suggests it could develop into a tropical or subtropical depression off the coast of South Carolina Monday or Tuesday. The latest ECMWF model run (00 UTC) predicts that this through will not be strong enough to pull the disturbance northeastwards across Florida, and the disturbance will instead linger in the Gulf of Mexico for many days, giving it time to develop into a tropical depression next week. The UKMET and NOGAPS models predict a more westward drift, with the disturbance affecting the Mexico/Texas border region 6 - 7 days from now. At this point, we can't rule out any location in the Gulf being affected by this system, though the Gulf coast of Florida has the highest probability of seeing impacts. NHC is giving the disturbance a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning. This is a reasonable forecast, and the odds will probably rise by Friday, and I give the disturbance a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning.

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