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Old 26-05-12, 23:19   #39
photostill
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Default re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=Beryl-WARNINGS & UPDATES



Beryl's center is exposed this morning and little if any strengthening is expected, the convection is mostly to the northeast and the system continues to look ragged.

The tropical storm warning area should continue to look for possible tropical storm conditions, but saying that, Beryl is a sheared subtropical system, so winds may be brisk for a larger area than normal, and rainfall, unfortunately for north Florida and Georgia, will only be marginal. (And if Beryl remains sheared, most of the rainfall may be on the northern side)

It is forecast for the storm to gain some strength as it leaves the area of shear, if the center remains intact, so it remains prudent to watch this system, especially as it moves over the Gulf, for any strengthening trends. The most likely idea is that it stays about the same or weaker as it is now all the way into landfall.

The current most likely region for landfall is just north of the Jacksonville area, behind and the north side of the system are by far the more wet sides currently. If Beryl managed to become more organized more rain will be along with the southern sections. Either way, not a good weekend to be at the N. Florida/GA/Southern SC beaches.

The actual Atlantic Hurricane season doesn't begin until June 1st, a milder winter has given rise to slightly better conditions earlier for pre-season development, but it also implies most of the storms this year will be sheared more often, with only a few exceptions possibly making it to something stronger.. more likely later in the season.

Advisories have begun on Subtropical Storm Beryl with maximum sustained winds currently estimated at 45MPH.

Beryl is nearly colocated with a mid to upper level low, which has been imparting shear on the cyclone, and forcing it to ingest much of the dry air currently over the southeastern US and Gulf of Mexico. These factors have served to slow its development, and will continue to do so, but it is expected that the shear will continue to gradually slacken somewhat over the weekend.

Beryl is forecast to approach the southeast coast by Sunday, bringing blustery winds and squally rains. At this time it is not exactly clear how far inland the cyclone will progress, but it is expected to make at least one landfall before being ejected back out to sea.

Because of this timing, Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued from the Brevard/Volusia county line in Florida northward into Ernesto Beach, SC.

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