24-05-12, 18:27
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#36
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The Enigma
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 9,977
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re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Season=Beryl-WARNINGS & UPDATES
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS AND
FLORIDA BAY...HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 30 MPH AND WIND
GUSTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER
OVER WATER. CURRENTLY...THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW REMAINS DISORGANIZED DUE TO STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SATURDAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF ANY DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...
FLOODING...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...THE
FLORIDA KEYS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND THE BAHAMAS. ANOTHER SPECIAL
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
...BUD STILL INTENSIFYING...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE EN ROUTE
TO INVESTIGATE...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...16.0N 106.5W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
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