Lee Rain Continues as it nears the Central Louisiana Coastline
7:28 AM 3 September 2011 Update
Bands of heavy rain along with tornadoes continue in the Central and Northeastern Gulf coasts, all associated with Tropical Storm Lee. It's still moving northward but still remains rather disorganized, another few days of rain is expected in the area.
Katia's holding as a category 1 hurricane, as it moves northwest, odds have slightly increased that it will recurve before the US.
1:30 PM 2 September 2011 Update
THIRTEEN has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Lee. While Lee is expected to intensify, within still weak steering currents, flooding will likely continue to be the greatest threat.
6:30 AM 2 September 2011 Update
Tropical Depression 13 remains a highly sheared, but active tropical depression.
Right now, the western side of the storm remains fairly dry, while the eastern side is extremely wet. With the shear, if the storm forms it will likely be a larger system without a strong inner core, which would make it highly unlikely to strengthen too much.
It will, however, be enough to bring large amounts of rainfall to the Northern Gulf, and some rainfall to the eastern Gulf. It is possible for the storm to be closer to a hybrid storm than a classic tight core tropical cyclone. Upwelling will also likely prevent too much intensification. The forecast calls for it to be upgraded to a Tropical Storm later today.
Texas it looks like, unfortunately, won't see much from this system.
There is virtually no movement with the storm right now, as the center is relocating more than moving, and the steering currents remain weak, which means days of the system offshore, bringing band after band of rain to Louisiana and surrounds, with heavy rain and the possibility of short lived tornadoes.
Any east facing coastal areas in the Northern Gulf will be prone to some coastal flooding with prolonged easterly winds. Winds will be slow at first, but gradually increasing through the days until the system exits. Rainfall will be very dependent on where the bands go, 5-10" is possible, some places more.
Track wise, pick a place, there is very little skill at forecasting a track of a virtually stationary tropical storm, generally anywhere in the tropical storm Warning area.
Katia remains a tropical storm this morning, and odds still marginally favor it turning out to sea before the United States. The area south of Nova Scotia may have a chance to develop before it gets into areas too cold.
Original Update
Tropical Depression 13 forms in the Gulf of Mexico about 225 miles southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi river.
Tropical Storm warnings are now up for the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline from Pascagoula, Mississippi westward to Sabine Pass, TX.
Tropical Depression 13 is forecast to become Tropical Storm Lee tomorrow. It is expected to move extremely slowly as it approaches the northern Gulf coastline, dumping very heavy rainfall.
TD#!3 is a borderline tropical depression, and is still quite disorganized at the moment and the center may "Reform" a few times before it gets its act together. Those in the Tropical Storm warning area will likely see an extended period of windy conditions with wave after wave of heavy rainfall.
Katia was downgraded to a Tropical Storm being under the influence of shear, it is forecast to regain strength later. Although odds still slightly favor recurve from the US, it is not a healthy margin and needs to be monitored over the next week or so. It appears it will go safely northeast of the Caribbean, however.