The Next One;
Tropical Storm Katia
30/8. 11amEDT - Katia Slowly Strengthening Over The Eastern Tropical Atlantic
12.3N 33.4W
Windspeed: 45 MPH - Pressure: 1003mb
Movement: Wnw at 18 MPH
CIMSS Animated Satellite:
Skeetobite Weather Plot:
See this plot animated
Skeetobite Weather Storm Plot:
Satellite (IR/Vis) Loop IR, Loop Vis:
Satellite (Water Vapor) Loop WV:
Probability Cone
Wind Swaths
The Following Graphic is from the South Florida Water Management District See This animated)
Previous Updates;
7AM Update 29 August 2011
Tropical Storm Katia formed this morning around 5AM, as it continues to move fairly fast to the west northwest. It is forecast to become a major hurricane by Sunday, but is forecast to be well northeast of the Leeward islands in the Caribbean. It is still worth watching in the Caribbean to see if it remains on the left side of the forecast cone, but odds do not favor that happen.
Current long range models have it recurving before the United States, but may bring it near Bermuda, or between Bermuda and the US. Katia is still very far out so trends should be monitored over the next week or so.
The final advisory on Jose was issued yesterday.
11PM Update 29 August 2011
No upgrade to Tropical Storm Katia just yet tonight, but it's really only a matter of time. TWELVE is arguably ever-so-close to being "there," thus likely this conservative stance by NHC will hold just until a little more data comes in, as TD12 is in a favorable environment for further development.
One change worth noting, the future track for TWELVE is looking a little more concerning tonight. Indications are that the expected opening in the ridge to its north may not last, and such a setup could keep TWELVE continuing on a more westerly course than earlier model runs suggested. However, it is far too early to take to the bank anything more than three or four days out on this system. We will have better model runs if and should Recon fly in.
Ciel
9PM Update 29 August 2011
Based on best track data, and Dvorak T numbers, it appears Tropical Depression 12 will be named Tropical Storm Katia at 11PM tonight.
Thankfully, odds currently favor it recurving out to sea as it is gaining latitude already. Katia is the name that replaced Katrina on this year's list. However, this is by no means a sure thing at this time, there will be time to watch this system over the next week.
Original Update
Irene's last NHC advisory was issued at 11pm last night, ending a very long wait and see period with Irene. Irene did cause damage, sometimes severe, but not in the areas that the media was expecting. The surge was very strong in North Carolina, the flooding rains in Vermont, upstate New York, and parts of western Massachusetts and New Hampshire were record levels, the power outages were widespread. Irene for the most part was more a major annoyance than major destruction, which is what was expected after the system's core collapsed shortly after the run through the Bahamas
Intensity forecasting remains weak, but the short-mid range track forecast was very good, and solidified fairly well once Irene passed Hispaniola. Models picked up the shift back west, but not as large as it wound up being (to head up over upstate New York and Vermont)
People with outages will gradually be regaining power over the next week or so.
Jose continues to move out to sea, and is expected to go post tropical fairly soon.
Tropical Depression twelve has formed in the far eastern Atlantic from what was 92L, it is expected to head generally west or west northwest. Although there is some time for it to change, odds favor the system recurving well before the US. The eastern Caribbean will need to watch, but it is likely to stay north of those islands as well.
END
Right now her track seems to be on line for Northern East Coast of the U.S.