IRENE
This went closer to the TVCN and consensus with the 11PM track, but only marginally so. Irene may briefly hit hurricane force before landfall in Puerto Rico (at 70mph it's very close now). After that the official forecast takes it along the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic, and later through the Bahamas, with landfall near Cape Canaveral. The cone still is fairly uncertain at that range and may extend eastward or slightly westward. With a lean toward the east right now. Those in the Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina should continue to monitor Irene.
Hurricane watches are now up for the Central Bahamas.
Hurricane Warnings are up for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and
the entire coastline of the Dominican Republic.
Hurricane Watches are up for the US Virgin Islands
Tropical Storm Warnings are up for the US and British Virgin Islands, Haiti, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy, the Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.
Tropical Storm watches are now up for the Central Bahamas as well.
Recon has found higher winds and lower pressure in Irene, 995 mb, after taking off from St. Croix while the center of circulation was over the island.
Most of Puerto Rico will be on the 'dirty' side of Irene as it passes over tonight, it will be an extremely rough evening there. Those in the area should be prepared.
After this, the forecast appears like there is no avoiding Hispaniola for Irene, and that it will at least cross over
the Dominican Republic, probably as a hurricane. It is very likely Irene will become a hurricane tonight or early tomorrow as the system has a very healthy core, even though the southern outflow is lacking.
Beyond this is still speculation, but the current trends, with the notable exception of the GFDL, suggest it staying east of Florida and eventually impacting in south or North Carolina. The official forecast still takes it through Florida, which is very possible, this depends on exactly how far west Irene gets before feeling the weakness in the ridge. Based on radar imagery Irene may be in the process of slowing forward motion, which would extend the time affecting Puerto Rico and
the Dominican Republic.
Those in the Watch/Warning areas, Cone, and all along the US Southeast from all of Florida to North Carolina need to watch Irene very closely.
CIMSS Animated Satellite:
OH OH, here we go, batten down the hatches people, its going to be a rough few days for us here in the Dominican Republic
See this plot animated
Satellite (IR/Vis) Loop IR, Loop Vis:
Satellite (Water Vapor) Loop WV:
Probability Cone
Wind Swaths
The Following Graphic is from the South Florida Water Management District See This animated)
HARVEY
Tropical Depression Harvey is back over water in the Bay of Campeche and is expected to regain Tropical Storm Force before making a second landfall in Southern Mexico. Tropical Storm Warnings are up for the coast from Punta el Lagarto to Barra de Nautla.